Between Surprise Negotiations and Surprise Attacks, a Week Full of Twists and Turns

Between April 5 and 12, the past week has been particularly rich in events in the Middle East. It concluded on Sunday, April 12, at dawn, with the announcement of the failure of negotiations between the United States and Iran in Islamabad, while mid-week, Israel gave its approval for direct negotiations with Lebanon, scheduled for Tuesday, April 14, in Washington. On April 8, the Israeli air force launched a massive attack – about a hundred raids in 10 minutes – against Hezbollah leaders and positions in several districts of Beirut, as well as in the Beqaa and South Lebanon.

April 5 had been primarily marked by statements made by President Donald Trump, who had issued serious threats against the Iranian regime, ordering it to end the obstacles it placed in the way of free maritime navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump had given Iran an ultimatum that expired on Tuesday evening, April 7. While everything indicated, during the weekend of April 4-5, that escalation was hardly avoidable, the surprise came a few hours before the end of the ultimatum. A two-week truce was proclaimed, and negotiations were set for Saturday, April 11, in Islamabad, with a view to a settlement between the United States and Iran, focusing notably on the Strait of Hormuz.

The offensive launched by the Americans and Israelis against the Iranian regime thus took another turn. In Iran, the cannons fell silent momentarily, even if the strait was only partially reopened. Both parties, Iranians and Americans alike, were quick to declare their camp's 'victory'. The Iranian regime boasts of a tactical victory against its two powerful enemies, based on the fact that its regime survived despite the blows received. As for Donald Trump, he multiplied 'posts' on his social network Truth Social, essentially stating that 'the regime has changed', that the new figures are more pragmatic and 'reasonable', and that the United States and its Israeli ally inflicted an overwhelming military defeat on Iran, its army and its infrastructure, bringing it to the negotiating table with the will to conclude a deal.

Irreconcilable views

The belligerents met on Saturday 11 for negotiations in Pakistan (the mediator), in Islamabad, with two contradictory working documents, 15 points for the United States and 10 clauses for Iran, with irreconcilable views. Indeed, on Sunday morning (Levant time), US Vice President J.D. Vance left Islamabad announcing the failure of negotiations, asserting to have made a 'final and best possible offer' to the Iranians (AFP). He regretted, before his return to Washington, 'the absence of a firm promise' to abandon the Iranian nuclear program. Iran, for its part, lambasted the American 'unreasonable demands', before its diplomatic spokesperson, Esmail Baqai, admitted that 'no one expected' an agreement after a single session.

Nevertheless, the door to dialogue would not be entirely closed, as a senior official of Pakistani diplomacy was quick to clarify. According to some reports, the agreement stumbled on two points: the Iranian regime's desire to control the Strait of Hormuz and an Iranian commitment to stop uranium enrichment. For their part, the United States refused to unfreeze Iranian funds and grant Iran control of Hormuz. This strait, let us recall, is a natural maritime passage and therefore not subject to the control of riparian countries.

In any event, the American delegation left Islamabad, leaving its Iranian interlocutors with a document outlining the conditions that Iran should accept to reach an agreement.

The US delegation was led by US Vice President J.D. Vance, a man who had expressed reservations about the war against the Iranian regime, accompanied by US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The Iranian delegation included Mohammad Ghalibaf, Speaker of Parliament and former general of the Revolutionary Guards, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

The April 8 attack

In Lebanon, the past week was mainly marked by the vast aerial attack launched by about fifty planes on Wednesday, April 8, in the early afternoon, against a hundred Hezbollah cadres and positions hidden in several districts of the capital as well as in Baalbek, Hermel, Saida, and other regions of South Lebanon. According to the version given by the Israeli army, an online meeting had been organized between officials and cadres of the Shiite party to prepare a militia coup in Beirut with the aim of overthrowing the government of Nawaf Salam, in which Hezbollah is a strong minority.

Still according to Israeli sources, the intelligence services of the Hebrew state had been informed of this large online meeting, and the Israeli Services managed to target all participating cadres, directly or by their presence, in the meeting across different regions by interfering with the frequency and computer identity of the online links. This 'cyber' attack (by 'virtual' means) lasted 10 minutes in Beirut and other regions to precisely hit the numerous targets. Given the element of surprise and the peak hour at which the raids were launched (around 2 p.m.), this bombing caused numerous civilian casualties. The toll amounted to no less than 180 killed among Hezbollah cadres and nearly 200 killed among civilians, not counting the considerable material damage in certain districts of the capital.

Since this bloody episode, the Israeli military operation against the capital and its suburbs has significantly decreased in intensity - apparently under American pressure to give negotiations with Iran a chance, as that country had protested against the non-inclusion of Lebanon in the ceasefire with the USA without reacting to protect its ally (Hezbollah) or jeopardizing its meeting in Islamabad. Fighting continues in the South, especially around critical points, such as the town of Bint Jbeil, which the Israeli army was seeking to completely control on Sunday.

At the end of this week, eyes were focused on the preparations for the first session of direct Lebanese-Israeli negotiations, scheduled for Tuesday, April 14, in Washington, as well as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz where President Trump decided on Sunday to impose a naval blockade to continue demining operations, in which some European countries, including Great Britain and Germany, could participate.