Iraq Unable to Regain Its Balance
The attacks launched from Iraqi territory against Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan underscore the fragility of a country that remains unable to regain its balance. Saudi Arabia’s response, which targeted positions belonging to the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), the umbrella organization for Iraqi sectarian militias aligned with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), confirms that the regional conflict has entered a new phase. Riyadh has made it clear that it is no longer willing to submit indefinitely to Iranian blackmail.
The Islamic Republic is now playing every card at its disposal in an effort to escalate its confrontation with the United States. It is incapable of acknowledging that it is not a superpower and that it must reach an understanding with Donald Trump’s administration that would allow it to become a normal state rather than a hegemonic power imposing its will on others through Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon.
The Islamic Republic finds it equally difficult to admit that further escalation will serve no useful purpose. More importantly, the current escalation exposes the reality of Iraq’s predicament: the country remains unable to free itself from Iran’s grip, while Ali al-Zaidi’s government is, in essence, little more than a continuation of Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani’s administration. This remains true despite the efforts it claims to be making, including setting a timetable to eliminate weapons that remain outside the authority of the state.
Al-Zaidi recently visited Washington, where Donald Trump lavished him with praise during their meeting in the Oval Office. It took only a few days, however, for it to become clear that the White House’s wager on the Iraqi prime minister was misplaced and that al-Zaidi is simply not in a position to rid Iraq of Iran’s direct influence.
Ultimately, it is true that Ali al-Zaidi has waged a largely successful campaign against corruption in Iraq. It is equally true, however, that this campaign has stopped short of the real power brokers, those who protect a corrupt system that emerged in 2003, when George W. Bush’s administration handed Iraq to Iran on a silver platter.
There is a clear connection between corruption in Iraq and the role Iran plays in the country. Corruption not only finances the Iraqi sectarian militias affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, but also fills the coffers of the Islamic Republic and bankrolls its proxies across the region.
It is not enough for Donald Trump to declare that “we will teach Iran a harsh lesson and are considering strikes against its proxies.” Such statements remain little more than rhetoric in the absence of a clear American position on Iraq’s place in the regional equation. That position should begin with an unambiguous acknowledgment that Iraq remains under Iranian domination and, at the same time, poses a threat to its neighbors. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains bases along Iraq’s borders with Jordan and even Syria. Moreover, most of the drones Iran launched toward Kuwait originated from Iraqi territory.
Most alarming of all, the Iranian attacks against Saudi Arabia, carried out through Iraq, exposed far more than the shortcomings of Ali al-Zaidi’s government. They also demonstrated that the Islamic Republic has no respect for the agreements it signs with other states. This includes the agreement reached with Saudi Arabia in Beijing in 2023. Iran has not only violated that agreement through the Houthis in Yemen, but has also made it unmistakably clear that Iraq remains firmly in its pocket. More than that, the Islamic Republic appears prepared to use Iraq as a platform in its campaign against the Gulf Cooperation Council states and Jordan.
Donald Trump’s claim that the strikes against the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, carried out jointly by Saudi Arabia and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), “were coordinated with the Iraqi government” does little to alter the underlying reality. Such statements amount to turning a blind eye to a fact that cannot be ignored. The issue can be distilled into a simple question: where does Iraq stand in the regional equation, and can it truly become anything more than a satellite orbiting within Iran’s sphere of influence?
What is most regrettable is that Ali al-Zaidi’s attempt to strike a balance between his government’s relationship with Iran and its ties with the Arab world has proved fruitless. The Iraqi prime minister has been forced to postpone his planned visit to Riyadh, at least for the time being. The postponement is entirely logical while Iraq’s place in the regional order remains unresolved and while it is still unclear whether the country has any realistic prospect of breaking free from Iranian domination.
The Popular Mobilization Forces, an umbrella organization that brings together a number of militias, have become the clearest symbol of the Iranian dominance that has persisted in Iraq since 2003. Their fighters are paid from the Iraqi state budget. Donald Trump’s assertions about “coordination” with Ali al-Zaidi’s government do nothing to change that reality. On the contrary, they sidestep the central question underlying his policy toward Iraq, a policy that is bound to fail as long as the militias’ weapons, rather than the institutions of the state, continue to have the final say. Everything else is mere detail, and ultimately meaningless.