Taline Becharraoui

Monday, August 3, was dominated by the fallout from U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement the previous day that he had called off the large-scale strikes against Iran that had been planned for the weekend. Trump had previously said the operation would be “the most powerful since World War II.” On Monday morning, Trump announced that talks with Iran would take place later that evening. But Tehran was quick to contradict the White House. Speaking through the Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Teheran said it was not engaged in talks with Washington, insisting that its only discussions were with Oman over the division of responsibilities in the Strait of Hormuz.

Once again — and for the umpteenth time (the previous instances on this front are too numerous to count!) — President Donald Trump announced in the early hours of Sunday, August 2, the "cancellation" of the "large-scale" attack that had been described as "imminent" against the Iranian regime. In recent days, the US Administration had fueled — through extensive media fanfare — an atmosphere suggesting that a major attack targeting the Islamic Republic's energy infrastructure was planned for that weekend. The announcement of these large-scale military operations was accompanied by statements from President Trump and senior American officials condemning the conduct of Iran's leaders and denouncing, in very harsh terms, their negative attitude and deceptive behavior during talks with US negotiators.

While tensions have largely subsided in the Middle East regarding the Iranian conflict, it is the Yemeni front that appears most active this Monday, July 27, with new Houthi rebel attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. In this context, the Saudi kingdom is currently being targeted by other pro-Iranian groups based in Iraq. The Saudis intercepted drones launched from Iraqi territory and, at the same time, called on Iraqi authorities to prevent such attacks carried out by these 'terrorist' groups — all the more so as the new government has expressed its willingness to better manage its internal situation.

The past week came to a close on Sunday with two undeniably significant developments. The first was Prime Minister Nawaf Salam's visit to Baghdad, where he held talks with Iraqi leaders focused primarily on economic matters. Accompanied by Energy Minister Joe Saddi, the prime minister discussed with his Iraqi counterpart the possibility of including the Tripoli refinery in the reactivation of the oil pipeline linking Iraq to Syria, with a view to exporting Iraqi oil. An agreement to that effect was signed between Syria and Iraq just days ago, and the Lebanese government is seeking to revive the Tripoli refinery's role in this context.

The escalation continues and intensifies on the Iranian front, particularly as the U.S. military has been bombing Revolutionary Guard positions and infrastructure across several regions of Iran for twelve consecutive days. The entry of Yemen's Houthis into the conflict is also being confirmed. Early Thursday, the pro-Iranian Houthi militia announced it had struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, as part of what it claims is a maritime blockade it is imposing on Saudi Arabia. The activation of the Yemeni front did not go unanswered on the American side. President Donald Trump issued a stern warning to the Iranian regime and the Houthis. Condemning the attack on the two Saudi tankers, the U.S. president made it clear that if such aggression is repeated, he will hold the Islamic Republic responsible, "since it is the one pulling the Houthis' strings." Trump stressed that if such an attack happens again, he will inflict "severe punishment on Iran, as well as on the Houthis."

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun arrived in Washington on Saturday, ahead of a scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday. On the regional front, the United States intensified its strikes throughout the past week against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) positions and infrastructure, prompting retaliatory attacks by the latter against Gulf countries (!), while the Iranian-backed Houthi militia in Yemen once again entered the fray. As the week drew to a close, attention in Lebanon was firmly fixed on the long-awaited visit of President Joseph Aoun to Washington. The head of state, who arrived in the U.S. capital on Saturday accompanied by his wife and advisors, held a meeting on Sunday afternoon (Beirut time) at the State Department with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He is set to meet with several other U.S. officials before his appointment on Tuesday with President Donald Trump at the White House.

This Tuesday marks the sixth round of direct talks between Lebanese and Israeli delegations, held this time in a European capital — Rome — rather than Washington. From the very first day, an initial breakthrough: Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar announced from Jerusalem that Israel is ready to "move forward" with the implementation of two "pilot zones" in southern Lebanon, according to AFP. However, under the terms of the June 26 framework agreement, implementation of the zones must begin with an Israeli withdrawal. He described the process, led under US auspices, as the "only way forward." Also according to AFP, the Lebanese delegation "was instructed to demand the immediate start of the withdrawal of Israeli forces from two pilot zones before any further discussion," the Lebanese presidency had indicated on Monday evening.

Tensions have been rising since the beginning of the week between Washington and Tehran following new Iranian strikes on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The negotiation process is not dead, but appears weakened. Hezbollah, for its part, is threatening to re-engage in southern Lebanon if war breaks out again, as attention turns to Lebanese-Israeli talks scheduled for next week in Rome. On Sunday morning, U.S. forces announced they had carried out, overnight, a third wave of strikes targeting more than 140 sites in Iran, in retaliation for a new attack by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on a commercial vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Following the U.S. raids, the IRGC wasted no time in launching — and expanding, as is their custom — attacks against several Gulf countries, specifically Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Kuwait… as well as Jordan, a country that Iran added to its list of potential targets amid the escalation of recent days. Even the Omani mediator was not spared. The attack on the Sultanate of Oman came just hours after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's visit to the sultanate!

Tensions between the Americans and Iranians had been gradually escalating for several days, against a backdrop of Iranian strikes on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The worst-case scenario materialized overnight Wednesday into Thursday: the Americans launched heavy strikes on Iran, as US President Donald Trump had threatened the day before. Iran, true to form, fired missiles at several Gulf countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar — and this time added Jordan to the list. Jordan intercepted 10 missiles fired at its territory around midday. A significant escalation, to say the least.

The past week gives a vague sense that fire is smoldering beneath the ashes. Tensions between the Americans and Iranians persist; they are erupting openly within the mullah regime itself, and in Lebanon, Israeli ceasefire violations continue without, for now, drawing a response from Hezbollah. Days of waiting, almost of a standstill, defined the past week. It was less eventful than the weeks that have followed one another since the start of the war in Iran and the opening of the parallel Lebanese front, yet it remains no less significant. Cracks are appearing here and there — not only in the memorandum of understanding signed between the Americans and Iranians, but within the Iranian regime itself.