Michel Touma

As the contours — and perhaps the unspoken elements — of the framework agreement reached between Washington and the Islamic Republic of Iran gradually and tentatively come into focus, two fundamental parameters that might be described as "peripheral" to the broader political process underway are emerging with increasing clarity: on one hand, internal Iranian divisions within the ruling establishment and the cracks now openly visible in the regime's structure; and on the other, the steady, patient, and meticulous construction by the United States of what appears to be a new politico-military-security order in the region — one designed to clip the mullahs' regime's wings and reduce its extraterritorial influence to an absolute minimum.

The diplomatic act of June 26, in Washington, undeniably reflects, in and of itself and regardless of what follows, tremendous political courage on the Lebanese side. The substance of the framework agreement signed by Lebanon and Israel at the conclusion of five rounds and two months of direct negotiations held in Washington, under the supervision of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is historic in every sense of the word. The terms of this document represent a genuine turning point in the evolution of the deep existential crisis that has relentlessly undermined the very foundations of the country, its political system, its stability, and its prosperity for decades.

“Even if a preliminary agreement is reached, it will not alter Iran’s perception of America.” In just a few words, the Iranian news agency Tasnim – which reflects the positions of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – indirectly pointed to the root cause of the existential crisis that has destabilized countries across the Levant and threatened several Gulf states for decades. The remark underscores a profound underlying problem: the divine ideological dimension that dictates the conduct of the mullahs’ regime, a dimension that some Western leaders consistently ignore – or at times fail to fully grasp.

In the current conflict that will likely determine the fate of the Islamic Republic of Iran, it is more vital than ever to be transparent and speak plainly, without complacency or evasion: many senior political officials, experts, academics and journalists are misreading the true stakes of this existential crisis shaking the entire region and reverberating, in turn, on the international market. The gravest mistake now would be to fight the wrong battle. The adversary to be confronted today is by no means President Donald Trump, regardless of any grievances one might hold against him regarding his behavior, arrogant attitude, verbal outbursts or relations with leaders who are supposed to be his allies. Is it necessary to remind ourselves, to illustrate this point, that these same shortcomings were criticized in Winston Churchill during World War II, yet General de Gaulle, locked in full conflict with the Nazi regime, did not focus his entire struggle on his quarrels and disagreements with the former British Prime Minister?

Obviously, one could not have expected spectacular results or decisions from the third round of direct Lebanese-Israeli negotiations held Thursday and Friday at the State Department in Washington. However, it must be acknowledged that the mere fact that these bilateral face-to-face discussions took place in Washington under the auspices of the US Administration represents a significant breakthrough in itself. Beyond this politically symbolic parameter, some positive signs emerged Friday evening following the marathon meetings held by the Lebanese and Israeli delegations. The State Department emphasized that the exchanges took place in a 'positive atmosphere that even exceeded our expectations.'

As political circles await clearer indications of President Donald Trump’s true intentions regarding the trajectory of the standoff with the Islamic Republic – following Washington’s outright rejection of Tehran’s response to the latest American “peace” proposals (though what kind of “peace” is actually being discussed remains an open question) – attention on Tuesday, May 12, turned to reports of an Israeli incursion north of the Litani River, the first such move in the current context. Since the disastrous war launched by Hezbollah in July 2006 – for what many viewed as purely Iranian considerations – every international and regional initiative, negotiation and security arrangement had focused on stabilizing the area south of the Litani. United Nations Resolution 1701, as well as the ceasefire brokered in November 2024 following yet another self-destructive war initiated by Hezbollah, centered on ending all militia presence within that clearly delineated southern zone.

It is, in many ways, a world turned upside down in the standoff between the United States and the Islamic Republic, with the key question now being whether a second round of talks will take place in Islamabad this Tuesday. On the surface, the Iranian regime – more specifically the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (the Pasdaran) – appears keen to cultivate the perception that it is dictating its terms to Washington as a precondition for resuming negotiations between the two sides. By that logic, it would be the defeated party imposing its will on the victor! Yet, at some point, things must be called by their name and “the truth must be told, however harsh it may be” – in the words of President Béchir Gemayel. In this conflict, it is Iran that has suffered heavy losses to its military, nuclear and economic infrastructure, and it is the Iranian political, military and security leadership has been decimated on a large scale. At the same time, it is the American armada that is effectively encircling Iran, and it is the maritime blockade imposed in recent days that is choking its economy; and it is the United States and Israeli air forces that, over the past 40 days, have dominated the skies, carrying out round-the-clock strikes on key strategic sites across Iran.

This is the first direct consequence of the failure of the Islamabad negotiations last weekend between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran. On Monday, at 5 p.m. (Beirut time), the naval forces of the American army implemented a total blockade of all Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz. Several warships have been deployed to enforce this blockade, which applies to all ships expected to use Iranian ports, whether departing or arriving. Only ships carrying humanitarian aid will be allowed to dock in ports, but after being thoroughly searched. As for vessels not involved in maritime traffic with Iran, they will be able to cross the Strait of Hormuz unhindered.

While some Beirut residents continued on Friday, April 10, to inspect the sectors severely hit on Wednesday by Israeli aviation, as part of a surprise attack against Hezbollah cadres based in various neighborhoods of the capital, air raids continued in the South against several villages in the southern part of the country. One of these raids killed 12 people (State Security agents) in Nabatiyeh. But in the absence of major developments in military operations, it is the direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, scheduled for early next week in Washington, that are currently focusing the attention of local diplomatic and political circles.

His name was Amirhossein Hatami; he was a musician, a talented guitarist, according to his relatives; he was 18 years old; he was hanged in the courtyard of Ghezel Hesar prison in the suburbs of Tehran… He had been accused of “enmity against God”... Mohammed Amin Beighari, 19, was allowed last week by his jailers to contact his father by phone to inform him (the height of sadism and cruelty on the part of the regime…) that he would be hanged the next morning; the execution took place as planned. His “crime”: having participated in the latest demonstrations against the mullahs’ regime… His name was Saleh Mohammadi, a professional wrestler; he had participated in wrestling competitions under the banner of Iran; he was 19 years old; he was hanged a few days ago for opposing the current dictatorship…