Michel Touma

It was, of course, to be expected… Wielding the threat of a deluge of fire that could soon fall upon Iranian strategic infrastructure, President Donald Trump reminded the leaders of the Islamic Republic that the last 10-day deadline he had given them to endorse the 15-point plan presented by Washington expires in 48 hours (i.e., Monday) or to ensure free maritime navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. “Iran has 48 hours before facing hell,” President Trump declared. Saturday evening, April 4, no indication yet allowed for forecasting a possible breakthrough capable of avoiding a large-scale escalation in military operations, but last-minute twists are obviously not to be excluded in this kind of situation.

We are witnessing a new kind of war, one that has pitted the American and Israeli armies against the Islamic Republic of Iran since February 28. To reduce it to its barest outline, we might say that what confronts us is a conflict that blends, in the popular idiom, “the stick and the carrot” in so entangled a fashion that it becomes difficult to read between the lines and discern the share and degree of truth, of manoeuvre, of outright falsehood, or of deliberate concealment on the part of each belligerent. Monday, March 30, 2026, illustrated this complexity in all its dimensions. President Donald Trump returned to the subject in an interview with the New York Post , noting the presence in Tehran of a “new regime that is proving Cartesian and rational” in its conduct, one that is “more flexible than the leaders who were eliminated” at the outset of the war.

In a recent interview given to an English-language television channel, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did not mince his words in describing the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — and, by extension, the mullah regime in general — as the “new Hitler of the Middle East”… Offering a particularly lucid reading of the geopolitical context of the current conflict, the Crown Prince noted without circumlocution that the Iranian regime clearly adopts an expansionist posture and seeks to extend “its own project in the Middle East, in the same way that Hitler had done” in Europe. “Several countries had not realized how dangerous Hitler was until it was too late,” MBS emphasized, adding — touching the nerve: “I would not want that to happen here.”

Political circles around the world, and more particularly international markets, lived this Monday, March 23, in anguish over military developments that risked occurring upon the expiration, in the evening, of the ultimatum launched by President Donald Trump to the Iranian regime, enjoining it to ensure free maritime navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, failing which he would order the bombing of power plants and energy infrastructure in Iran. In response, Tehran threatened to attack energy and vital facilities, particularly seawater desalination plants, in several Gulf countries. Monday thus began in a particularly tense climate until the White House chief suddenly revealed in the early afternoon (Beirut time) that discussions had been engaged over the weekend with “the Iranian State,” he specified without any reference to the Islamic Republic, in order to reach an “agreement,” the outlines of which he did not indicate. He merely pointed out in this context that he had postponed the bombing of electrical and energy facilities for “five days,” allowing time for the talks engaged with the Iranian regime to unfold.

Three major developments, undeniably strategic in dimension, have marked the last twenty-four hours of the war between the American-Israeli alliance and the Republic of the Mullahs in Tehran. Iran thus launched for the first time two intermediate-range ballistic missiles towards the American-British base of Diego Garcia, located in the Indian Ocean, some 4000 kilometers from Iran. The two missiles did not reach their target, but the importance of this launch lies in its geopolitical significance. The range of Iranian missiles was generally estimated at 2000 kilometers. The fact that these two ballistic devices had a range of nearly 4000 kilometers constitutes tangible proof that the Islamic Republic was genuinely working to acquire a missile arsenal potentially capable of reaching European capitals, including Paris and London, located respectively 4200 and 4400 kilometers from Tehran.

People often spoke, especially before the war, of the « Lebanese miracle », of Lebanon compared to the phoenix rising from its ashes. A beautiful image… Except that by constantly rising from its ashes for more than half a century, the Land of the Cedar is today out of breath… Especially since it is undermined from within by a party that in no way cares about « the interest of Lebanon and the survival of its people », as President Joseph Aoun aptly emphasized in his online intervention addressing the leaders of the European Union. The head of state did not hesitate to put his finger on the wound by openly accusing Hezbollah of having reactivated the South Lebanon front to « serve Iranian interests », stating that the objective of the group allied with the Pasdaran is to provoke « the fall of the Lebanese state » to subsequently claim that it alone is capable of confronting Israel.

The war between the Iranian Islamic Republic, on the one hand, and the American-Israeli axis, indirectly including Europe and the Gulf countries as well as Turkey, on the other hand, concludes its second week this Saturday, March 14. This first phase of the conflict focused essentially, on the Western side, on the elimination, from the first hours of the offensive on February 28, of some forty members of the Iranian military and political high command, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, followed by a massive and continuous aerial bombardment aimed at destroying the regime's military and administrative infrastructures.

The Council of Ministers, meeting on Thursday at the Grand Serail, adopted several measures aimed at preventing any activity and presence of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Lebanon, in what is perceived as a real hunt for Pasdaran in the country. The government has asked the relevant ministries (Defense and Interior), as well as municipalities and various security services, to take all necessary measures to prevent any military and security activity of the Revolutionary Guards on Lebanese territory. The concerned authorities have been tasked with detecting the presence of Pasdaran in the country, arresting them, and expelling them. Furthermore, upon a proposal from the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Joe Raggi, the government decided to require an entry visa for all Iranian nationals wishing to travel to Lebanon.

The American-Israeli offensive launched on February 28 against the Iranian mullahs' regime, as well as the subsequent reopening of the South Lebanon front by Hezbollah, on the night of March 1 st to March 2, have taken a new turn over the past forty-eight hours. As aerial raids against Hezbollah positions continue, particularly in the southern suburbs of Beirut and in several villages in the southern region of the country, the Israeli air force is escalating targeted raids aimed at eliminating senior leaders of the pro-Iranian faction and fundamentalist Palestinian organizations. On Wednesday, March 4, and during the day on Thursday, March 5, raids were carried out in Aramoun, Saadiyate, Bchemoun, Choueifat, Saida, Hazmieh, on the road to Beirut airport (where two Hezbollah leaders were assassinated), Zahle and in the Palestinian camp of Baddawi, in North Lebanon, where a senior Hamas official was killed.

“They are finished (…). This war is seven times more powerful than the previous one.” With those few words, U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth summed up the diection the war – launched on February 28 by the United States and Israel against the Iranian mullahs’sbregime – has taken, or is now beginning to take. The U.S. minister stressed that this war remains in its early stages, specifying that additional aircraft and military forces will be dispatched soon to the Middle East to take part in ongoing operations. The Secretary of War’s remarks clearly reflect the developments now unfolding in Iran. March 4, 2026, was marked above all by intense and sustained airstrikes carried out by the Israeli Air Force against regime buildings, command centers and infrastructure in the Tehran region. More than one hundred Basij centers – the repressive armed wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – were reportedly targeted by Israeli bombers.