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Strategia

The Red Sea and the Horn of Africa: The Shifting Balance of Power in the Middle East (1/6)

Gulf rivalries, African vulnerabilities, and prospects for regional security
Retrato del autor
Por Khalil Helou
Publicado Oct 22, 2026 - 14:59
The Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Gulf of Aden and the Horn of Africa form a strategic space contiguous with the rest of the Middle East. Treating them as separate theaters obscures the mechanisms through which a local war, rivalry over ports or a maritime attack simultaneously affects the Arabian Peninsula, East Africa and international trade. Stretching between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean, this corridor links, through the Suez Canal, economies whose interests are interdependent but whose means of protection and political priorities remain profoundly different. Local actors in this space include the states of the Horn of Africa and its surrounding areas—Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Sudan—as well as Yemen on the Arabian shore. They also include authorities and forces without state status, notably the breakaway territory of Somaliland, which claims independence from Somalia; the Houthis in Yemen, who see themselves as the state; the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan; and the armed group Al-Shabaab in Somalia. Regional powers—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Turkey, Israel and Iran—intervene through investment, diplomatic partnerships, and military and security support. Moreover, as coastal states, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are both directly affected and capable of projecting influence beyond their borders.
The New World
Retrato del autor
Por Khairallah Khairallah - Publicado Oct 22, 2026 - 14:28
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Campaign rally for Benjamin Netanyahu in Dimona, Israel, on October 21, 2026. (Photo: ILIA YEFIMOVICH / AFP)
The political deadlock gripping the region today, at every level, is the product of years of investment in extremism, violence, and terrorism, in which several actors have converged, from the Israeli right to Iran, including the Islamic Republic’s instruments in the region, notably Hamas and Hezbollah. The former Syrian regime was hardly removed from these forces. It was an honorary member of the Tehran-led “resistance front,” having ensured long years of calm and stability along the front in the Golan Heights, occupied since 1967. Against this backdrop, Israel heads into its general elections with several questions looming, including whether Benjamin Netanyahu will have a political future after the vote. The question is particularly pressing given that the man who has served as prime minister for so many years is already on trial for corruption, proceedings whose consequences could weigh even more heavily on his future if he loses power.
Today's Essential

Sisi Stresses the Defensive Nature of Support for Riyadh

Egypt condemns Turkish-Libyan maritime agreement that threatens its sovereign rights
Retrato del autor
Por LevantTime . - Publicado Oct 22, 2026 - 00:02
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Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi stressed on Wednesday that the military support offered to his Saudi ally against Yemen's pro-Iranian Houthis was strictly defensive, saying no attack on Yemen was planned. “The aim is to defend the kingdom's territory and borders, as well as those of any other Arab state, if Egypt is asked to do so,” the president said in a speech, as Tehran issued a warning to Cairo. Any military involvement would mark a break with Egypt's cautious diplomacy, which in recent years has prioritized safeguarding its own national security. But Riyadh, which has also received pledges of defensive support from France and the United Kingdom, has long been a key ally of Cairo.
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Hezbollah Disarmament Urged by G7
Por
Taline Becharraoui
Publicado

Since a ceasefire in Lebanon was mentioned in the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States – the text of which was released by the State Department on Wednesday evening (see below) – speculation has been rife over what developments may in the country in the short term. Not only does the ceasefire remain extremely fragile, but uncertainty also surrounds a possible Israeli troop withdrawal and the central issue of Hezbollah’s disarmament. While the party and its Iranian backers have already declared “victory” following the conclusion of the framework agreement, several developments on Wednesday cast doubt on that narrative advanced by the Iranian camp.

When the Hezb Recruits Children and Justifies It...

When Hezbollah, or those orbiting within its sphere, are questioned about their practice of recruiting children — a category that UNICEF defines precisely, through the Convention on the Rights of the Child, as any human being under the age of eighteen — the answer invariably moves between a few registers: they claim the children want it themselves, that they are mature enough, or that it is perfectly normal and consistent with the practice of every revolution in history. A rosary of references then unspools, carrying us back several centuries. We find ourselves, at once, mired in countless fallacies.

Is a Cultural Policy Possible in Lebanon? (2/2)
Por
Fabienne Touma
Publicado

In a previous article, we noted that despite the succession of crises that have beset Lebanon, the country’s artistic scene has continued to display remarkable resilience, both at home and abroad. Exhibitions, festivals, gallery openings, new institutions and heritage initiatives: art and culture linked to Lebanon have never entirely disappeared, despite formidable challenges. On the contrary, they now appear to be regaining momentum, contributing to the emergence of a form of cultural diplomacy on the international stage and offering a glimpse of what could become a distinct cultural policy for the Land of the Cedars.

US–Iran: For Tehran, fall in line – or else…

The defining feature of this round of talks and negotiations set in motion earlier this week by the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran is, without question, “suspense.” The formal launch of the process is scheduled for Friday in Switzerland, with the participation, among others, of US Vice President JD Vance and the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament – who also leads Iran’s negotiating team – Mohammad Ghalibaf. At this stage, suspense centers on the content of the memorandum of understanding agreed between Washington and Tehran. Only the Iranian “version” of the document has been made public. It is clearly one-sided, appearing to reflect primarily the demands of the Iranian regime. On the American side, officials say the framework agreement will be released to the media on Friday, after the official signing ceremony.

Against the Post-Humanist Illusion, the Bonding Capacity

Against the backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions and the return of power politics to international affairs, Leo XIV emerges as a as a prominent warning voice against the technological illusion embraced by parts of the Silicon Valley elite. Their ambition is to use artificial intelligence (AI) to transcend human limitations and propel humanity toward transhumanism and post-humanism. Such Promethean aspirations – to overcome the limits of the human condition – betray a hostility not only toward the world itself, but toward the very notion of a Creator. The encyclical offers a direct response: “Humanity – magnificent yet wounded – must neither be replaced nor surpassed. It may embrace technological progress to alleviate suffering and open new possibilities,” provided it does not abandon what fundamentally defines it: its capacity for relationship and love (editor’s note: emphasis added). At this point, a decisive question arises: if there is such a thing as a genuine “beyond the human,” where is it to be found? The Christian faith answers by pointing to “a fulfillment that does not arise from technological self-deification, but from the action of God’s grace received in Christ.”

At the Breaking Point
Por
Hisham Dibsi
Publicado

The title is a slogan placed by the Iranian leadership on a giant billboard in the heart of Enqelab Square in Tehran, depicting the Strait of Hormuz above the mouth of Donald Trump, president of the state of the "Great Satan" that must be defeated, just as the state of the "Little Satan" — Israel — must be destroyed. Yet the facts tell us this week that an agreement is taking shape, precisely "at the breaking point," with both Satans, the Great and the Little, an agreement that may be signed next Friday. It has not occurred to the Iranian media machine that breaking points can strike its own leaders too, and not only its enemies, even as the Iranian leadership believes it has achieved an unprecedented divine victory at this breaking point — whether in the strait or in South Lebanon.