Articles

The population of Lebanon, as well as the populations of the Levant, Gulf, and Middle Eastern countries, are subjected to a veritable Scottish shower (a sudden reversal of fortune). On the one hand, rumors suggest an upcoming end to hostilities on the Iranian front (without encompassing Lebanon), but at the same time, a clear escalation in military operations is perceptible. Wednesday, March 11, and the night of March 10, were marked by an intensification of raids and missile fire in more than one direction. Israeli aviation thus continued its intensive raids on the night of March 10 against the nerve centers and infrastructure of the Iranian regime in Tehran, and against the southern suburbs of Beirut and several villages in South Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley. Missiles were also launched against positions of the Kurdish Iranian opposition in Iraq, while the US-Israeli coalition air force launched raids against the offices of the pro-Iranian Iraqi militia, “El Hashed al-Shaabi” (“Popular Mobilization”), and Iraqi Hezbollah, stationed in Iraq. Several missile alerts were also reported on Wednesday in Dubai and Doha, notably.

The global order is entering a transitional phase marked by remodeling rather than collapse. The post-WW2 order led so far- and more so since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990 - by the United States is adjusting to new realities. China’s economic weight gives it strategic leverage that extends far beyond trade and finance, positioning it as a major competitor to the United States. Although China’s form of interventionism differs from that of Western powers, its growing influence across regions such as the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America is nothing but another version of neo-colonialism, hence not less damaging to America’s global interests.

The Shiites knew "the death of God" more than a thousand years before the rest, when the lineage of Hassan ibn Ali al-Askari was cut off and he died by poison — the last of the great, infallible Imams. Shia political fiqh did not withdraw into some haven of consolation; it insisted, rather, that divine wilaya and the infallibility of the wali must endure. And so the son of Hassan came into being — most necessarily —, then disappeared in a Minor Occultation, followed by a Major Occultation, in the most prudent of all precautions… And thus Shia political fiqh deflected the idea of "the death of God" and fled from it toward the end of time… suspending time, leaving it hanging by a single hair: the awaiting of the Mahdi, who will return from his Occultation to fill the earth with justice and equity after it has been filled with oppression and iniquity…

As the Israeli-American offensive against Iran enters its tenth day–an assault that has set the entire region ablaze, Lebanon included–tensions continue to mount. While US and Israeli authorities are raising the tone, the pillars of the Iranian regime, currently fighting for their survival, have responded with heightened virulence, appearing to find a second wind following the announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader. US President Donald Trump set the tone on Monday, claiming he believes the war is “very complete, pretty much.” In an interview with CBS, the president suggested that the conflict is moving “very far ahead” of its initial schedule. “It is we who will decide when the war ends,” the Revolutionary Guards shot back in a defiant statement.

I belong to a generation that grew up with war, that fears dying with it, and that, in the meantime, will have wasted the best years of its life waiting or hoping for things to get better. I belong to that in-between generation that witnessed the pre-1975 era without being able to salvage any real memories of youth from it. The one that can feel regret without ever truly turning the page. The one that believed that today’s youth–regardless of the camp they belong to–would, much as we did, look back and choose life over dying as so-called martyrs. I am left, like so many others, stunned that my country has been pulled back into an absurd war rather than signing a peace deal. It was that very peace that let the rest of the Arab world make giant strides, while we thought we held the region’s Holy Grail. Instead, we have been demoted to the very last rank, forced to witness the permanent reshaping of our geography and our demographics.

The recent remarks by Hezbollah’s deputy secretary-general, Mohammad Raad, and Mahmoud Komati, vice-president of the party’s Political Council, invite serious reflection on the political meaning of the conflict currently underway. Komati speaks of a “golden opportunity” for the State — built on what Hezbollah claims to have “proven” on the ground — to establish a deterrence equation that should now be consolidated. Raad turns his fire openly on the State itself, accusing it of refusing to become entangled in a conflict that his own party manufactured from nothing. The deputy secretary-general insists, stubbornly, on his will to liberate Lebanese territory from an occupation… that did not exist before his militia chose to open hostilities in order to avenge the Iranian spiritual guide.