Levant Time logo

Articles

News feature image
Analyze

Have We Become Stupider?

Or Are We Experiencing a Transformation in the Structure of Knowledge?
Author portrait
By Mona Fayad
Published Sep 5, 2026 - 20:01
The question “Has the world become stupider?” frequently returns in contemporary debates about digital media, search engines, and social networks. On the surface, it seems simple. Yet behind it lies a deeper issue concerning the very nature of knowledge: how it is produced, how it is transmitted, and how it is consumed. Perhaps “Have we become stupider?” is not the most accurate question. A better one might be: Is knowledge still being transmitted in a way that allows it to be understood and made productive? Do most readers still go back to the original texts? Or do they turn instead to summaries and to what is said about those texts through material circulating among readers? One key to understanding this phenomenon lies in the work of British psychologist Frederic Bartlett, who conducted a series of experiments in the 1930s on what he called “serial reproduction.” In these experiments, one person would be asked to hear a story and then retell it to someone else, who would in turn retell it to a third person, and so on. The results were striking: with each new transmission, the story was not conveyed as it had originally been told, but was reformulated. Some details were omitted, others were exaggerated, and still others were replaced by elements that better suited the recipient’s background, experience, and culture. By the time the chain had passed through enough people, the original story had become something entirely different. This simple model reveals a fundamental truth: memory is not a neutral container, but a mechanism of reconstruction. When knowledge passes through multiple intermediaries, it is not “preserved” but “reproduced.” Here we begin to see the resemblance to our contemporary world, and with it the fear that we may be becoming stupider. In the age of digital media, knowledge no longer travels through oral transmission, but through chains of mediation: an article is summarized, then quoted, then reposted as a short post, before being further reduced to a sentence or a headline. In this context, we might borrow a metaphor that appeared in a journalistic text: a library whose books are gradually replaced by summaries, then by summaries of summaries, until the reader is left facing layer upon layer of reduction. We might call this the “raccoon chain”: the raccoon does not read the original, but rummages through what remains of it. It is worth clarifying that the choice of the “raccoon” is not arbitrary. The metaphor symbolically condenses a cognitive condition that is becoming increasingly entrenched. This animal, which lives on the fringes of cities and rummages through garbage bins, does not produce its own food but feeds on the leftovers of what others have produced. Despite its practical intelligence and its ability to pry things apart, pick through them, and seize what is useful, it does not understand what lies before it. It treats things simply as material available for immediate use. This is what knowledge begins to look like in an age of serial reduction: texts are shortened, then shortened again, until all that remains are scraps of meaning, rearranged and circulated without any genuine connection to their source. At that point, we have not merely moved away from the original. We have entered a new phase in the production of information or knowledge, in which the cognitive actor is no longer a reader or a thinker, but a collector of fragments of meaning who redistributes them in forms designed for rapid consumption. “Raccoon culture,” then, is not merely a description of superficiality. It is an accurate description of the degradation of the knowledge chain itself: from creation to summary, from understanding to formal processing, from ideas to something resembling only their faded trace. Yet this phenomenon cannot be understood apart from the technological structure that governs it. Here Marshall McLuhan becomes relevant, with his famous formulation: “The medium is the message.” The problem lies not only in content, but also in the form through which that content is transmitted. Contemporary digital media do not simply convey information. They reshape it according to the logic of speed, condensation, and fragmentation. Long texts become unsuitable for consumption, while an idea becomes acceptable only if it can be compressed into a few shareable lines. This transformation produces a striking paradox: we live in a time when access to knowledge is no longer difficult. It is excessively easy. And with that excessive ease comes what might be called a “cognitive illusion”: reading a brief passage or a quick summary can be enough to make a person feel that they have grasped an idea. Yet this feeling of possession is not necessarily accompanied by deep understanding, or by the ability to reconstruct or critique that knowledge. This is where we encounter what might be called the “semi-educated”: people who possess the signs of knowledge but not its structure, its vocabulary but not its internal logic. The problem becomes even more complex when viewed through the lens of attention. Instead of remaining in a state of sustained concentration, as in traditional reading or prolonged reflection, the mind now exists under continuous informational bombardment: notifications, clips, headlines, and successive waves of content. This does not merely fragment attention. It reshapes it according to a logic of constant jumping between short units of meaning, rather than the gradual and cumulative construction of an idea. I am reminded here of a joke that we used to tell and that was widely circulated during the days of popular demonstrations. It vividly illustrates the process of reduction and reshaping of content. After the occupation of Palestine, many popular demonstrations took to the streets chanting, “Down with the Balfour Declaration!” The joke was that by the end of the demonstration, the slogan had become, in Arabic, “Let one fall from above,” a completely different phrase that retained something of the original slogan’s rhythm and sound. This image may help bring us closer to what happens in everyday language when knowledge is transformed into short messages that are collectively repeated. A demonstration begins with a precise political slogan. Through repetition, collective immersion, and sonic rhythm, it gradually turns into a completely different formula. The new version may preserve the rhythm and emotional charge of the original, while losing its meaning and original significance. What remains is no longer the meaning, but the emotional energy of the phrase. Here, in another form, we encounter what Bartlett observed: what matters is not merely what was said, but how it was retold and how it was reinterpreted within a changing social context. If we bring these strands together, we might say that what we are experiencing today is not so much a “collapse of intelligence” as a transformation in the conditions under which intelligence operates. The human mind has not changed radically, but the environment in which it functions has changed profoundly: from an environment that allowed slow accumulation to one that imposes the rapid and fragmented reproduction of knowledge. This transformation creates a permanent tension between two kinds of thinking: reflective thought, which requires time, and rapid thought, which demands an immediate response. Seen in this light, the question “Have we become stupider?” is partly misleading. It may be more accurate to say that we are increasingly exposed to conditions that make deep thinking less stable, or less possible, and knowledge more vulnerable to fragmentation and recycling. As for stupidity, if the term can be used, it may not be a quality of the mind at all, but rather a side effect and a characteristic of the cultural structure that has emerged. It is a technology that reshapes our relationship with the world. Thus, rather than seeing this as a decline in human capacities, we might understand it as a transformation in the “knowledge environment”: an environment in which it has become easy to know something, but harder to truly understand it in depth.
Opinion
Author portrait
By Youssef Mouawad - Published Sep 5, 2026 - 13:25
News feature image
In 2010, Israel violently intercepted the Mavi Marmara, a Turkish ship chartered by a humanitarian NGO to bring aid to the Gaza Strip, which was under Israeli blockade at the time. This was the last straw, and the incident brought the simmering hostility between Erdogan's government and the Jewish state out into the open. (AFP)
The war has not yet ceased in our south, and already it threatens to break out among our neighbors. In other words, we live on borrowed time, lurching from one conflict to the next. And for good reason! The bombing of a Syrian base very nearly escalated into an all-out clash between Ankara and Tel Aviv. That was on August 18, and Benjamin Netanyahu didn't mince his words: his country would not tolerate a Turkish military foothold that could spread into southern Syria. The warning was all the more forceful given that eight strikes had targeted the Abu al-Dhuhur air base, just 70 kilometers from the Turkish border. It's worth recalling, too, that since the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, Erdogan has become the chief mentor of the new Syria under Ahmed al-Sharaa, helping rebuild its armed forces and turning it into a strategic partner. This is no longer Hafez al-Assad's Syria Was it this renewed tension between Ankara and Tel Aviv that prompted a meeting between Syria's top diplomat, Assaad Chaibani, and Mossad chief Roman Gofman, in Jordan on August 23? Yet this quiet parley did not spark outrage across the Arab world the way Anwar al-Sadat's surprise visit to Israel did in 1977. A taboo was officially broken—and indeed, who would have imagined such talks taking place under the Baathist regime? Israel might have been expected to welcome this, but contrary to expectations, it halted neither its airstrikes nor its territorial incursions, as seen on August 27 in Quneitra. The fact is, things have changed. Under Hafez al-Assad, Syria was a regional power that, while not exactly formidable, was feared by its immediate neighbors, Arab or otherwise. No one wanted to pick a fight with it, which allowed it to pursue, within certain limits, an assertive foreign policy that often bordered on provocation. As a result, thanks to the autonomy it exercised and the room to maneuver it granted itself, Syria had become, at least geographically, a buffer zone between an "Erdoganist" Turkey flaunting its unabashed brand of Islam on one side, and Israel, a state Jewish to its core, on the other. But now, in a country worn down by Baathist mismanagement and ravaged by years of civil war, Turkey has begun staking its claims—and will inevitably find itself face to face with an Israel that occupies part of Syrian territory. What can we expect? Given the outsized egos of both Netanyahu and Erdogan, and assuming both leaders remain in power, we should brace for an epic showdown across Syrian, Lebanese, Jordanian, or even other territories. This will be a fight of feints and dodges, of underhanded tactics as well as head-on attacks, close combat, and rising tensions right up to the breaking point. And this despite a September 2025 report from the Congressional Research Service concluding that direct confrontation between Turkey and Israel remains unlikely, precisely because both states are well aware of the cost such a war would entail. Still, in the realm of conflict studies, leaders and other elites don't always act rationally! All the more so since, in the eyes of Israeli observers, the slogan now popular in Anatolia—"Make Turkey great again"—hardly reassures the Zionist state. Washington will find it increasingly difficult to contain or keep apart two adversaries already gearing up for battle. Turkey, the new Iran? Yes, that's one hypothesis, but only in a face-off with Israel, since Syria has overnight become a zone where 'two security perimeters overlap' — the Turkish and the Israeli, the Muslim and the Jewish. And it can't be ruled out that Shiite militancy, that mobilizer of "proxies," might end up allying itself, even if only temporarily, with a 'Muslim Brotherhood version' of political Islam championed by Ankara! So we would have, against all odds, a Hezbollah backed by its former enemy, Ahmad al-Sharaa, an Islamist who emerged from Jabhat al-Nusra and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham! Against a common adversary, a reversal of alliances is always legitimate and opportune. But this would only be a tactical alliance, dictated by the exigencies of the moment, one that couldn't presume anything about the future. With Arab nationalism now out of the picture, Turkey won't settle for economically capturing the Syrian market of 25 million consumers: it will want to wield political influence in Damascus, and to that end will deploy its military and security apparatus. Since the shaky power of the Syrian president can't fulfill certain sovereign functions or oversee the various branches of the state, it will inevitably turn to the expertise of its northern neighbor. Does this mean Turkey will get sucked into the spiral of 'announced belligerence'? Everything points that way, and we can already see the early signs of a spiral reminiscent of the US involvement in Vietnam under Lyndon Johnson. Indeed, if the Syrian state intends to rebuild itself, it will first need an army capable of quelling the centrifugal tendencies of the Alawites, the Druze, and other factions calling for the country's breakup. And it's up to Ankara to provide that and to bolster the central authority based in Damascus. But Israel, which has gotten into bad habits in Syria and intends to keep its freedom of aerial action there, cannot tolerate an army built along NATO lines that could serve as a proxy for a neo-Ottoman venture. And Lebanon, from primary stage to secondary stage? A new stage is now set for a new script that will define new rules of the game! What will become of Hezbollah, caught in a trap? Well, in that scenario, it could benefit, even if only partly, from Damascus's logistical support — support it has sorely lacked since the fall of Bashar al-Assad. And perhaps, through a shift in the tectonic plates, Lebanon would move from being the initial stage to being merely a secondary stage of a regional conflict. But frankly, that would do us a lot of good!
Today's Essential
Author portrait
By LevantTime . - Published Sep 5, 2026 - 00:55
News feature image
The ICRC convoy carrying the released civilians left the area occupied by Israel in southern Lebanon and traveled to the point marking the start of the zone controlled by the Lebanese authorities. (AFP)
The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) announced on Friday that it had transferred four more people released by Israel to Lebanon, a day after the release of a first civilian. They are three Lebanese nationals and two Syrians, according to the ICRC. This is the first time such an operation has taken place since negotiations between Lebanon and Israel began in April under US auspices. During the last round of talks in August, Beirut had requested the release of a first group of its nationals captured by Israel in southern Lebanon, where Israel is at war with the pro-Iranian Hezbollah. Their relatives estimate their number at around thirty, including fighters from the Islamist movement. In a statement, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun thanked the United States and the ICRC, saying the release "confirmed the soundness of the position" taken by Lebanon, which is engaged in negotiations with Israel that Hezbollah rejects. On Thursday, the United States praised "the government of Israel and the government of Lebanon for demonstrating good faith through these initial steps," expressing hope that this would "serve as a foundation for broader discussions on other civilian matters." The two countries are set to hold another round of negotiations in September, though the date has not yet been set. According to the Israeli prime minister's office, Thursday's announcement "follows efforts by Israel and Lebanon to locate and repatriate the remains of Jewish community leaders who were kidnapped and killed in Lebanon" between 1984 and 1986. Israeli strikes intensify On the ground, Israeli strikes killed three people and wounded 23 others on Friday in southern and eastern Lebanon. Israel stepped up its strikes in the region on Friday, after announcing Thursday evening that it had taken control of the Ali Taher mountain ridge, which had served as a strategic position for the pro-Iranian Hezbollah and overlooks Nabatiyeh, among other areas. The army will now reinforce its positions there in order to "prevent the enemy from retaking the area," said Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz. A strike also hit the Tyre region, particularly the village of Rmadiyé, according to the National News Agency (NNA). For Trump, the war in Iran is "small potatoes" Regarding the war in Iran, US President Donald Trump sought on Friday to downplay its impact on the United States ahead of the crucial midterm elections. "A lot of people aren't calling it a war. I call it a military conflict, because it's small potatoes for us. It's not a big deal. We did Venezuela, and we did that," he told reporters in the Oval Office when asked about his vice president, JD Vance, who had said the day before that he didn't want to call the conflict a war. With fuel prices surging because of the war and threatening to cost Donald Trump's Republicans their majority in Congress in November's midterm elections, his administration is working to downplay the scale of the conflict. According to the president, the United States is carrying out "targeted strikes," insisting that it is "not currently engaged in fighting." He also claimed that the United States controlled the Strait of Hormuz and had wiped out Iran's armed forces. "What we've accomplished is remarkable. We took control of Venezuela, and we've essentially taken control of Iran," he said.
More Articles
Sort By: NewestOldest
Welcome to Ramses II
By
Micha Moussallem
Published

In our first article, we followed the steps of the Grand Egyptian Museum's construction and explored its technical department, responsible for the restoration of objects discovered by archaeologists. It's time to discover some of the treasures it holds. As soon as you push open the GEM's door, a majestic hall (the Atrium) of 10,000 square meters welcomes us under a glass roof and a grandiose staircase of 108 steps spanning an area of 6,000 square meters over 6 floors. The museum comprises 12 galleries and has a structure organized around three main themes: royalty, society, and beliefs, thus covering periods from the pre-dynastic era to the Greco-Roman era. A fabulous journey through 7000 years of history The Grand Hall is dominated by the colossal statue of Ramses II, discovered near ancient Memphis in 1820. 3000 years old, 11 meters high and weighing over 80 tons of red granite, the imposing statue seems to step forward to welcome us. Before the GEM, it stood at the entrance of Cairo's railway station in the square named after the pharaoh. It had to be placed inside the museum even before the hall's construction, as it was impossible to bring it through the doors due to its exceptional dimensions. As for the grand staircase, it is itself designed as a work of art and offers a breathtaking view of the pyramids. It is adorned with colossal statues of pharaohs, sarcophagi, and priceless objects arranged according to four precise themes following a spectacular staging: statues of kings and queens, places of prayer, the king's relationship with the gods, and finally the sarcophagi of kings and queens. At the top of the steps and all along the route, the highlight of the show is, of course, the breathtaking view of the pyramids. A Few Wonders The museum brings together the most beautiful treasures of ancient Egypt and contains thousands of pieces, all meticulously restored in situ, in the museum's laboratories. Furthermore, thousands of other pieces are awaiting their turn to be restored. Among these wonders is a floor dedicated to Tutankhamun. The young pharaoh, who died at 19, fascinates tourists worldwide as much as Egyptologists and other researchers. This is mainly due to the incredible treasure discovered intact in his tomb by archaeologist Howard Carter, whose discovery marked a decisive turning point in the history of Egyptology. Tutankhamun's treasure includes over 5000 objects displayed in 2 galleries spanning 7000 square meters. Among the fabulous pieces belonging to Tutankhamun is his famous funerary mask, a masterpiece of ancient Egyptian craftsmanship and goldsmithing. It is made of solid gold set with turquoise, lapis lazuli, quartz... and weighs nearly 10 kg. It was placed in the pharaoh's tomb to allow his soul to recognize his body in the afterlife. Also on display in the two galleries dedicated to him are his golden throne and his six war chariots, his three funerary beds, one of which is solid gold, and hundreds of objects (jewelry, amulets, clothing, etc.) intended to accompany him into the afterlife. The Boat of Khufu Another major attraction of the museum is the Khufu Boats Hall, where one can admire the pharaoh's solar boat, builder of the Great Pyramid. It measures 43.5 meters long by 5.9 meters wide and is over 4,600 years old. A symbolic object of Egyptian mythology linked to the cycle of Ra, the sun god, it is considered the oldest intact ship in the world. This masterpiece, made of cedar wood from Lebanon, highly prized in antiquity, was intended to transport the deceased king to the afterlife. It was found intact in a pit, but disassembled into 1224 pieces, like a puzzle. It took experts 10 years to reassemble it, as its mechanism contained neither screws nor nails. In our next article, we will study the museum's impact, a source of national pride, on Egypt's cultural influence and economy.

For a return to the political legacy of Mohammed Mehdi Chamseddine

Lebanon and, more specifically, the Shiite community commemorated a few days ago the 25th anniversary of the death, on January 10, 2001, of the former president of the Supreme Shiite Council (SSC), Imam Mohammed Mehdi Shamseddine. The man who was, for more than two decades, the spiritual leader of the Lebanese Shiite community, succeeding Imam Moussa Sadr – who mysteriously disappeared during a visit to Libya in 1978 – left behind a political 'will' whose existence and true scope are ignored (or concealed...) by many Lebanese and foreigners, particularly in academic and journalistic circles. The historical and truly existential dimension of this legacy is highlighted by the dramatic developments currently unfolding in Lebanon and the region. More than ever, the Land of the Cedars and the Levant need the contribution to public life of a personality combining, like Imam Shamseddine, moral authority, open-mindedness, and a clear vision of current socio-political realities. At the end of his life, and although weakened by illness, he had recorded his memoirs and recommendations on cassette regarding the course of conduct that Shiites in Lebanon and the region should adopt. He particularly urged his co-religionists not to have a 'political project specific to Shiites' and to fight for their rights 'by integrating into the society in which they live'. Clearly, he subtly rejected the principle of exporting the Iranian Islamic Revolution initiated by the Pasdaran in the aftermath of Khomeini's rise to power in 1979. He particularly challenged, in this context, the system established by Khomeini, based on the authority of the Walih el-Faqih, namely the Supreme Leader of the Iranian Islamic Revolution – in this case, himself and his successors – endowed, in his capacity as a direct descendant of the Prophet, with absolute and unchallenged decision-making power on strategic matters, including decisions of war and peace. By establishing such a political system, Ayatollah Khomeini had sown the seeds of chronic regional destabilization, the result of an autocratic power's behavior that would plunge the entire Middle East into chaos for over four decades. And for good reason: the Wilayat el-Faqih was designed to be an absolute reference authority not only for Iranians but also for all Shiites. In terms of religious practice, every Shiite group or individual must indeed choose their own spiritual leader. However, by granting himself power based on a divine 'legitimacy' (thus indisputable), the new Leader of the Islamic Republic (Khomeini, then Khamenei, currently) placed himself above all other religious authorities, serving, moreover – and this is where the problem lies – a transnational, expansionist, hegemonic, repressive political project that sanctifies violence as a mode of action. This Khomeinist 'graft' on the Shiite socio-political-religious body could only be a source of tension and conflict in the Arab world, under the weight of the 'exportation of the Islamic Revolution' and the divine power granted to the Supreme Leader. As a true visionary, Sheikh Mohammed Mehdi Shamseddine had seen the danger looming, clearly distancing himself from the foundations of Wilayat el-Faqih and the expansionist ambitions of the Pasdaran, much like the spiritual leader of the Shiite community in Iraq, Ayatollah Sistani, Imam Moussa Sadr, and even Sheikh Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah, whom many Western observers mistakenly called the 'spiritual guide of Hezbollah', whereas, on the contrary, he challenged the divine power of the Walih el-Faqih and, consequently, expressed reservations about Hezbollah's conduct in Lebanon. More than twenty-five years later, events have illustrated the visionary nature of Sheikh Shamseddine's political legacy. In fact, it is on the basis of the 'Shiite-specific (transnational) project', denounced by the former president of the SSC, that the Iranian regime resorted to militiamen from Arab countries to brutally suppress its own people in bloodshed a few days ago. The slogan 'Neither Gaza, nor Hezbollah, we give our lives for Iran', launched by Iranian revolutionaries, alone summarizes the entire historical and existential dimension of the vision expressed by Imam Shamseddine. In this context, it primarily reflects the serious resentment towards Arab populations expressed by a large part of Iranian public opinion, which does not understand how the radical wing of the Iranian regime could spend tens of billions of dollars to maintain proxies in Arab countries while Iran faces an unprecedented severe socio-economic crisis. It is also on this same basis of the 'Shiite-specific (transnational) project' that Hezbollah's Secretary-General, Sheikh Naim Qassem, constantly prioritizes the supreme interest of the Iranian regime at the expense of the imperatives of building a strong and sovereign Lebanese state. He even went so far as to utter threats against Foreign Minister Joe Raggi (deemed too sovereignist!), not forgetting to brandish the specter of internal unrest if the government were to implement its decision to disarm Hezbollah… During one of his recent public interventions, President Joseph Aoun called on Hezbollah to 'reason,' which openly displeased Naim Qassem (the supreme interest of the mullahs' Iran requires it!). To stop such a suicidal drift by the pro-Iranian faction, an imperative step must be taken today, urgently: alignment with the recommendations, with the prophetic political legacy, of Mohammed Mehdi Shamseddine. Even if this must inevitably lead – they will have to admit it one day – to a genuine 'cultural revolution' to reshape their political doctrine developed in the mid-1980s...

The "Old Continent" between foundational memory and civilizational disarmament

The notion of the “Old Continent” refers to a Europe shaped by a long history, a plurality of peoples, and a singular spiritual depth. However, this Europe is not a fixed reality: it has been conceived, reconstructed, and reinterpreted according to different eras. Two visions allow us to measure its evolution and contemporary tensions: the one elaborated in the post-World War II period by Robert Schuman and Christian democracy; and the one described today by Chantal Delsol in L’Insurrection des particularités. Between these two moments, Europe has moved from a project of civilization based on reconciliation to an identity crisis marked by fragmentation and strategic impotence. In the immediate post-war period, Robert Schuman's thought was rooted in a traumatic historical experience. Europe emerged exhausted from two world wars born on its soil. The implicit motto that then inhabited consciences was simple, radical, almost existential: “Never again.” Never again fratricidal war, never again murderous nationalisms, never again the denial of human dignity. This absolute refusal to return to barbarism constitutes the moral foundation of the European project as conceived by Schuman, Adenauer, and De Gasperi, all from the tradition of Christian democracy. For Schuman, Europe is not primarily an economic or technocratic space, but a community of destiny founded on a certain idea of man. This anthropology is inherited from Christianity, not as an imposed dogma, but as a cultural matrix that shaped the European conception of the person, law, and power. It is in this sense that he affirmed, in a famous phrase: “Democracy will be Christian or it will not be” (1). Far from signifying a confusion between faith and politics, this phrase expresses the conviction that democracy cannot survive without a moral foundation recognizing the dignity of the human person, responsibility, solidarity, and the limits of power. The Declaration of May 9, 1950, concretely translates this vision. Europe will not be built by decree, but by concrete achievements creating de facto solidarity. It is not about abolishing nations, but about inscribing them in a superior framework capable of neutralizing their destructive impulses. The “Old Continent” is then conceived as a civilization aware of its Greco-Roman, Christian, and humanist roots, and determined to transform its tragic memory into a principle of lasting peace. Christian democracy thus proposes an original synthesis: unity without uniformity, plurality without confrontation, memory without resentment. Next article: The Insurrection of Particularities: A Europe Unarmed in the Face of History (1) René Lejeune, Robert Schuman, père de l'Europe, Fayard (p 169).

Lebanon, Land of Asylum
By
Jawad Pakradouni
Published

« Lebanon is distinguished by the unique proximity between the sea and the mountains. Lebanon's imposing mountain ranges stretch parallel to the Mediterranean Sea coastline, creating a striking geographical diversity that brings together magnificent beaches, green valleys, and snow-covered mountains in winter. » A typical introduction found in all Lebanese geography textbooks, describing a one-of-a-kind country, equally captivating for locals and tourists alike. It is therefore not surprising to see the massive influx of foreign nationals, particularly Syrians and Iranians (who, it seems, contribute to a sudden increase in the occupancy rate of certain hotels): Lebanon is paying the price of its success. It is true that we would have preferred to see Westerners or Arabs from the Persian Gulf disembark, but unfortunately, we do not choose our tourists, and it was indeed the ministry concerned that came up with the slogan « Ahla Bhal Tallé » without specifying the nationalities of the « tallé ». Indeed, it must be noted that the Syrians in question suddenly decided to visit the country starting in December 2024, with the vast majority of them preferring to settle at the borders, in the Beqaa Valley, known for its harsh winter climate and dry summer, but necessarily less harsh and dry than the political climate reigning in Syria, for those who, precisely, precipitously decided to set foot on Lebanese soil. The same goes for the Iranians who very recently – according to circulating information – invaded certain hotels, a more subtle variant than the invasion carried out in May 2008 by their local militia, but which remains troublesome, insofar as there might be certain individuals listed in the databases of Israeli 'swallows' whose buzzing never ceases to 'brighten' our days. At heart, these tourists of another kind will acclimate very easily in some of our regions. Indeed, there are beaches that meet their social and cultural criteria: unisex, very virile, where Mohammad Raad officiates as GO (Yelling Organizer), as entertainer it will be Hussein Hajj Hassan whose physique recalls that of Gordon Shumway (thus validating one of Michel Hayek's most ludicrous premonitions), and, of course, Naim Kassem as DJ, replacing the militia's David Guetta, the one who made the republic vibrate with his finger. It is regrettable, however, to note that Lebanon, as a host country, only receives second- or even third-tier personalities, while celebrities and other VIPs prefer to go east of the Berlin Wall (which is actually west for them), to Russia, despite the notorious fragility of balconies and the purgative effect of their teas. According to reports published by « World Population Review » at the end of 2025, Lebanon holds the position of first runner-up in the Arab world and fifth globally in terms of the prevalence of mental illnesses and psychological disorders. We're already an open-air madhouse, and if on top of that, we had to serve as an asylum for criminals….

From Mediterranean Ambition to European Compromise (2/5)

After defining the geographical scope of the Mediterranean Union and explaining why adjacent seas and non-Mediterranean riparian countries were excluded, the Baltic and Nordic Councils and their objectives will be presented in order to identify what brings them closer to this Union and the differences in their respective goals. The geographical boundaries of the Mediterranean Union were precisely defined: the Mediterranean Sea, delimited by the Straits of Gibraltar and the Dardanelles, as well as the Suez Canal. The countries concerned included those forming what may be called the European Mediterranean arc (including Portugal, by virtue of its language, history, and culture), as well as the southern and eastern riparian countries, numbering sixteen: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Turkey; for the Adriatic: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Albania, and Montenegro; and finally Mauritania, for a reason similar—though not identical—to that justifying Portugal’s inclusion. The initiator intended that the Mediterranean should not appear as a mere continuous succession of countries surrounding an empty space, but rather as a living space of production and human, commercial, and cultural exchanges, composed of the Mediterranean Sea and the countries bordering it. It was conceived as an inseparable whole: a union of countries, thus of lands, but also a union of these lands with the sea—the central space that connects them. Yet it appears that the objectives assigned are essentially land-based. None directly concern the sea. At the time, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel demanded that this project include all twenty-seven countries of the European Union. To avoid any confrontation, French President Nicolas Sarkozy had to modify the project by integrating all EU member states and adapting its name in order to remove any ambiguity. It is nonetheless sometimes useful to revisit the different phases in the creation of a process in order to understand the reasons for its successes or failures and, consequently, the difficulties encountered by the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) in progressing at the desired pace. We shall see that it is not a failure, but perhaps—at least in part—a victim of the constraints inherent in its macro-structure, of the kind Europe is well known for producing. Two institutions are presented here: the Council of the Baltic Sea States, which bears a distant resemblance—through its ambitions and objectives—to the Mediterranean Union (or the UfM), and, for the record, the Nordic Council. The latter will be dealt with very briefly, as it is not centered on or around the Baltic Sea in its vocation. The Council of the Baltic Sea States This Council was established in 1992 at the initiative of Germany and Denmark to promote cooperation in the Baltic Sea region, particularly in the areas of security and the environment. It plays the role of a regional cooperation platform addressing civil, environmental, maritime, and societal issues. It is a regional forum bringing together ten states—Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, and Sweden—of which all but Iceland and Norway are members of the European Union. Countries such as France also hold observer status at the national level. Its secretariat is based in Stockholm. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine altered certain aspects of the Council, notably with the suspension of Moscow. Its objectives are to: * promote regional identity and cooperation around the Baltic Sea; * foster sustainable and prosperous development of the region; * ensure a safe and secure region (civil security, protection of people, cross-border cooperation); * guarantee environmental protection and democratic resilience; * encourage human contacts and balanced economic growth. Its fields of action notably include maritime protection, the sustainable maritime economy, combating human trafficking and organized crime, as well as education, youth, and culture, with an enhanced role in European regional cooperation in Northeast Europe. The Nordic Council Created in 1952, the Nordic Council, along with its ministerial counterpart established in 1971, aims to strengthen cooperation among the Nordic countries across a wide range of fields (mobility, environment, culture, society). Its vision is clearly oriented toward political, economic, social, and cultural cooperation and integration. It constitutes a model of democratic regional union. The Council brings together Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden, along with their autonomous territories (Greenland, the Faroe Islands, and Åland). Its headquarters are in Copenhagen. Its core objectives are to promote an integrated Nordic area—free movement, equality, sustainability, and innovation—and to uphold democratic values and regional solidarity. The Nordic Council does not include Germany or the other EU member states. It is nonetheless mentioned to demonstrate that geographically constituted institutions, bringing together certain EU countries around common projects with non-EU countries within a defined geographical area, coexist and operate actively. They likely function more smoothly than the UfM, which is vast and perhaps too heavy to carry and to operate dynamically. Only the Council of the Baltic Sea States can be compared to the Mediterranean Union, as both are structured around a maritime ensemble based on riparian countries. The objectives of the Baltic Council, however, do not match the scale of those of the Mediterranean Union. Yet the latter, despite encompassing the Mediterranean Sea—along with an Adriatic component and an Atlantic opening—remains devoid of truly maritime objectives. The Mediterranean Union was short-lived. It gave way to the Union for the Mediterranean, which exists today. This is essential for Mediterranean peoples. Lebanon has its rightful place within it. Next article: The transformation of the Barcelona Process into the Union for the Mediterranean (3/5) Previous article: Mediterranean Union: what became of the Barcelona Process? (1/5)

Iran: A Civil War, Like in Syria, Remains Likely
By
Youssef Mouawad
Published

Do not count your chickens before they are hatched. The Tehran regime has not fallen; and even if it has been weakened, it is not on the verge of collapse. While the demonstrations and riots that have erupted in Iran’s cities—led by academics, women, bazaar merchants, and other segments of society—are noteworthy, one may well ask whether they have surpassed in scale those that toppled the Shah in 1979. Yet these convulsions and protests could suddenly reach an unforeseen level of gravity, and it would not be illusory to bet on their success, as the German chancellor has openly suggested. Even in the event of an Israeli or American strike! Still, we are unlikely to witness any time soon the rout of Iran’s politico-clerical elite, nor that of its mamluks—the Pasdaran and the Basij*. These are not people who will take flight in the face of unarmed protesters. Moreover, Ayatollah Khamenei, even weakened by illness, is not Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, who was easily overthrown in 1953 by a coup engineered by the American CIA and the British MI6 to restore Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Short of the regime turning against itself, the country’s future will be decided on the barricades. The regime’s heavyweights will not relinquish their hold, and the Revolutionary Guards have only one desire: to settle scores with the internal enemy. All these actors have far too much to lose from a change in power. And having been deeply implicated in corruption and repression, where could the barons and pillars of the state seek refuge? In China or the Russian Federation—Venezuela being presumably off-limits to them? That said, under external pressure the ruling class may jettison some ballast. It could even curtail the authority of the Supreme Leader, or make concessions on the nuclear issue, but it will not relinquish power. Let us be clear: a hostile cyberattack, or even an American bombing campaign without boots on the ground, is not capable of toppling the reviled regime. Once again, it will be up to the people who have taken to the streets to wrest victory by force. An initially asymmetric civil war, as was the case in Syria, therefore remains likely. In such a scenario, Russian and/or Chinese intervention should not be ruled out, if only to counterbalance Israeli and American interference. And Lebanon, then? That said, we are not out of the woods: if blood is to be spilled in the provinces of the Islamic Republic, one should expect a conflagration in Lebanon. For should it find itself threatened at its very core, the regime of the mullahs would not hesitate to set the entire Middle East ablaze. Yes, a suicidal decision cannot be excluded on the part of those who have been sliding downhill for less than two years and are living in a staggering state of denial. Hence the call to stay alert and vigilant. * If their current strength reaches 200,000 soldiers, one must not lose sight of the fact that “at least 2 million Pasdaran, and as many Basij members, have undergone the harrowing experience of the front. This brotherhood of arms explains the subsequent influence of their networks of demobilized veterans’ solidarity throughout the social body.” Jean-Paul Burdy, “Iran: A Militarization of the Regime by the Revolutionary Guards,” Middle East Magazine, January 10, 2024.