Day Ten of the Conflict: Rhetoric Flares Between Belligerents

As the Israeli-American offensive against Iran enters its tenth day–an assault that has set the entire region ablaze, Lebanon included–tensions continue to mount. While US and Israeli authorities are raising the tone, the pillars of the Iranian regime, currently fighting for their survival, have responded with heightened virulence, appearing to find a second wind following the announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader.

US President Donald Trump set the tone on Monday, claiming he believes the war is “very complete, pretty much.” In an interview with CBS, the president suggested that the conflict is moving “very far ahead” of its initial schedule. “It is we who will decide when the war ends,” the Revolutionary Guards shot back in a defiant statement.

However, the Iranians have moved beyond mere bellicose rhetoric. Tehran has threatened to “block oil exports for the duration of the war”–a move that drew an immediate and characteristic response from Donald Trump. The US president warned that Washington would “hit twenty times harder” should Tehran act on its threat. Ali Larijani, the regime’s security chief, dismissed Trump’s warnings as “empty,” retorting that “Iran has no fear.”

What lies beneath this acerbic exchange of rhetoric, particularly from the Iranian side? Very few details are filtering out regarding the situation on the ground in Iran, largely due to the relentless and violent Israeli-American air strikes targeting cities and critical infrastructure.

In any event, a fresh statement on Tuesday from Donald Trump–who delights in blowing hot and cold–has served to muddy the waters. The US president claimed to have “heard that Tehran wanted to talk,” indicating his own readiness to do so.

For his part, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remained steadfast, asserting that he was in the process of “breaking the bones” of the Iranian regime, while once again calling on the Iranian people to rise up in revolt.

The Christians of the South

In Lebanon, the war remains in full swing, with a relentless succession of evacuation orders issued by the Israeli military for entire swathes of the country. The Israeli Air Force continues to target Hezbollah’s financial backbone, Al-Qard al-Hassan, with numerous branches already reduced to rubble–the majority located in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Residents across seven neighborhoods in the sector have been ordered to evacuate “until further notice.”

However, the last forty-eight hours have been marred by a series of bloody incidents in Christian border villages–areas that are demonstrably not Hezbollah strongholds. In Alma el-Shaab, Sami Ghafari, a man in his seventies, was targeted and killed by a drone on Sunday while tending to his land. His death has deeply unsettled observers.

On Monday, the violence spread to Qlayaa, claiming the life of Father Pierre Raï. The priest was killed after Hezbollah fighters reportedly took cover behind an inhabited house to launch rockets toward Israel. The Israeli military released a video on Monday purporting to show the “infiltration of armed elements into a Christian village in South Lebanon”–specifically identifying them as members of Hezbollah.

Were these strikes intended to terrorize the residents of these villages, who are determined to remain in their homes, or are they truly caught between the hammer of Israel and the anvil of Hezbollah? Regardless of the intent, the residents of Alma el-Shaab have now chosen to evacuate their village under the protection of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). Meanwhile, in Rmeish, inhabitants received direct calls from the Israeli military demanding the evacuation of displaced Shia civilians they had been sheltering, who have since been relocated to Tyre.

Faced with the spiraling violence in Lebanon, France has expressed its “deep concern.” Paris has called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council in New York, which is set to take place tomorrow, Wednesday 11 March.

First Public appearance of Mohammad Raad

The day of 9 March–or more precisely, the evening–was also marked by a speech from the head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, Mohammad Raad, in what was his first public appearance since rumors of his assassination by Israel in the early days of the conflict. Only hours after participating in a parliamentary session where he and his colleagues voted to extend their own mandates by two years, Mr. Raad took up the arguments of his party’s Secretary General, Naim Qassem. He launched an attack on the government for its 2 March decision to deem the militia’s military activities illegal, asserting that Lebanon “had no choice but resistance.”

Such remarks pose yet another challenge to the government and to President Joseph Aoun, who only the day before had accused Hezbollah of driving Lebanon toward “collapse.” They also represent a fresh attempt to close ranks within a popular base that is becoming increasingly disillusioned.

For his part, Joseph Aoun visited the Ministry of Defense on Tuesday to defend the army. The military’s Commander-in-Chief, General Rodolphe Haykal, has become an increasing target of attacks since Hezbollah once again dragged Lebanon into an “absurd war” and the military was tasked with implementing the government's decision to ban the group's destructive paramilitary activities. The President made it clear that Haykal “would not be dismissed,” sharply criticizing the growing calls for his departure.