Decision-Makers' Attention Focused on the Strait of Hormuz

The population of Lebanon, as well as the populations of the Levant, Gulf, and Middle Eastern countries, are subjected to a veritable Scottish shower (a sudden reversal of fortune). On the one hand, rumors suggest an upcoming end to hostilities on the Iranian front (without encompassing Lebanon), but at the same time, a clear escalation in military operations is perceptible.

Wednesday, March 11, and the night of March 10, were marked by an intensification of raids and missile fire in more than one direction. Israeli aviation thus continued its intensive raids on the night of March 10 against the nerve centers and infrastructure of the Iranian regime in Tehran, and against the southern suburbs of Beirut and several villages in South Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley. Missiles were also launched against positions of the Kurdish Iranian opposition in Iraq, while the US-Israeli coalition air force launched raids against the offices of the pro-Iranian Iraqi militia, “El Hashed al-Shaabi” (“Popular Mobilization”), and Iraqi Hezbollah, stationed in Iraq. Several missile alerts were also reported on Wednesday in Dubai and Doha, notably.

On Tuesday night, the Israeli navy targeted an apartment in the Aïcha Bakkar neighborhood of West Beirut. The IDF stated that a leader and an office of the Sunni fundamentalist organization “El Jamaa el Islamiya” were targeted by the strike, which reportedly killed four people. Further south, about forty Israeli armored vehicles reportedly took up positions in the southern region, particularly near Taybeh, which could be a precursor to a prolonged Israeli army presence in the South to impose a “buffer zone” aimed at reducing the threat to northern Israeli villages. In this regard, the Israeli General Staff reportedly sent reinforcements to the border with Lebanon, including a significant commando unit.

Diplomatic pressures

Faced with the resurgence of tension on the ground, Lebanon is subject to increased diplomatic pressures. The French ambassador to the UN thus read a statement, in the presence of the ambassadors of the European Union, calling Hezbollah's entry into war against Israel “irresponsible.” The French ambassador added that the pro-Iranian party must “cease its attacks against Israel and hand over its weapons to the Lebanese government.” In the same vein, the president of the French Senate, Gérard Larcher (a great friend of Lebanon for many years), emphasized that France must help the Lebanese government disarm Hezbollah, which “does not defend Lebanon, but serves Iran's interests,” he noted.

For her part, the Assistant Secretary-General of the United Nations for Political Affairs criticized, during a Security Council meeting (Wednesday afternoon) dedicated to Lebanon, Hezbollah's attitude, noting that this party “refused to cooperate with the Lebanese government to restore the state's sovereignty and implement the decision on the monopoly of arms.”

As for Israel's ambassador to the UN, he presented Lebanon with a choice that leaves no room for hesitation. “The Lebanese government,” he declared, “is faced with the following alternative: either it dismantles Hezbollah's military apparatus, or we will do it ourselves”…

What about the Strait of Hormuz and Mojtaba Khamenei

In parallel with this tension on the now traditional “fronts,” a new flashpoint has emerged in recent days: the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards do not hide their desire to close this strategic maritime passage, even threatening to mine it. President Donald Trump was quick to react to these threats, unequivocally stating that any attempt to mine this strait would lead to a particularly firm response from the American army. In this context, the US Navy continued the systematic destruction of the Iranian military fleet, and sixteen mine-laying vessels were sunk.

At the political, or global geostrategic, level, the attention of regional and international powers is currently focused on the configuration of the new political power in Tehran after the designation of a new Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Ali Khamenei, who was killed during the first Israeli air raids in Tehran on February 28.

It is confirmed by various converging sources that Mojtaba Khamenei was injured during the first raids on February 28. Contradictory information is circulating in the media regarding the severity of his injuries and his health status. The new Leader would have been practically imposed by the Revolutionary Guards (the Pasdaran), which could reflect a hardening of the mullahs' regime towards the West, and particularly the United States. In any event, it will be necessary to wait for Mojtaba Khamenei to publicly state his major political and strategic choices to determine the course that events might take, both concerning the outcome of the war and the future of Iran and the entire region.