Bypassing Hormuz Is Driving Iran Mad

At its core, one question demands an answer: what drove Iran to so flagrantly violate the memorandum of understanding it had reached with the United States through the negotiations held in Switzerland with an American delegation led by Vice President J. D. Vance?

There are, no doubt, many reasons that may explain Iran’s strange behavior, bordering on irrationality. It prompted President Donald Trump to go so far as to describe Iranian officials as “sick” and “liars” with whom no meaningful dealings are possible. He went even further, using language that revealed profound disappointment with Iran’s leadership before announcing the end of the memorandum of understanding.

The most important explanation for Iran’s irrational conduct, however, lies in the determination of the region’s countries to find ways of bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, whether through the Red Sea or the Mediterranean. Such a strategy requires understandings with Jordan and Syria, or with Iraq and Türkiye, to allow oil and gas to reach ports from which they can be exported to Europe and other parts of the world without remaining at Iran’s mercy. Tehran simply realized that time, on which it had long relied, was no longer working in favor of its strategy and that serious efforts were underway to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway it regarded as its principal leverage in confronting the United States.

The Gulf states’ search for alternative routes for oil and gas pipelines has deprived the “Islamic Republic” of its strongest card, the very one that persuaded the US administration to conclude the memorandum of understanding with Iran, unaware that it was dealing with a regime unlike any other, one detached from every value associated with international law and respect for the sovereignty of other states. Since its establishment in 1979, the Iranian regime has consistently pursued only one policy: blackmail.

In any case, the United States’ decision to launch military strikes in response to attacks by the Revolutionary Guard on commercial tankers, including one Qatari and one Saudi vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz, reflected President Trump’s belated discovery of the true nature of both Iran’s leaders and the regime itself. Even a belated realization is better than no realization at all. Even a delayed recognition of the Iranian regime is preferable to none at all.

It should never have taken this long for Donald Trump to understand whom he was dealing with or to realize that the Iranian regime has never changed. At no point has it respected international law or even the most basic humanitarian values. The tragedy inflicted on South Lebanon by the “Islamic Republic” stands as compelling evidence. From Tehran’s perspective, the memorandum of understanding with the US administration was nothing more than an opportunity to buy time. Nor did the regime honor its central provision, namely what Washington understood to be the guarantee of freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Keeping Hormuz open was a matter of strategic importance to Trump himself, who regarded falling oil prices as a major achievement that he could present to the American public. He needed that accomplishment to strengthen his standing with ordinary American voters. It therefore came as no surprise that he reacted furiously when the Revolutionary Guard once again began obstructing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. By then, Iran had already realized how seriously the countries of the region were pursuing alternatives to the strait. That explains Tehran’s renewed focus on Yemen and the Houthis, who resumed threatening Saudi Arabia after observing a relatively long period of restraint.

For Iran, the Houthis can play a decisive role in disrupting navigation through the Red Sea and preventing oil tankers from passing. It was no coincidence that the “Islamic Republic” violated the internationally imposed restrictions on Sanaa Airport to demonstrate that the Houthis remain one of its strategic cards and are in no position to break free from Tehran’s authority.

One further point is of critical importance. Donald Trump is not the only one to have rediscovered the true nature of Iran and the regime in Tehran. Pakistan, too, has come to the simple realization that its mediation between the United States and Iran serves no real purpose. At most, Islamabad can function as another Iranian card, nothing more. The “Islamic Republic” exploited Pakistan to the fullest. Islamabad helped convince the Trump administration that a balanced agreement with Iran was possible, one built on preserving freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s strategy of buying time has ultimately backfired. Before anyone else, the countries of the region have made it clear that they refuse to remain hostage to the Strait of Hormuz. That, more than anything else, explains Tehran’s increasingly irrational behavior, which failed to anticipate that Donald Trump would eventually lose patience and revert once again to the logic of force.

Has the war returned? That is the great question, and it is still too early to answer. One thing, however, is certain: depriving the “Islamic Republic” of the Strait of Hormuz as its principal strategic card, and the regional effort to bypass the waterway, prompted Tehran to jeopardize its memorandum of understanding with the United States. After all, what value does such an agreement still have if Iran no longer possesses the Hormuz card with which it could pressure the world and influence global oil and gas prices?

The strait was Iran’s trump card. It enabled Tehran to secure a memorandum of understanding under which the United States made significant concessions, including linking Iran to the search for a solution in Lebanon.

The regional drive to bypass the Strait of Hormuz is much like taking a favorite toy away from a child. The Revolutionary Guard’s conduct is, in the end, nothing more than the reaction of a child who has just had its favorite toy taken away.