LevantTime .

The negotiations between Iranians and Americans, which are in limbo after this long week of back-and-forth in Islamabad, were overshadowed Sunday morning (Levant time) by the news of a failed assassination attempt on US President Donald Trump at the White House Correspondents' Dinner. President Trump, in an initial gut reaction, indicated he did not know whether the war in Iran is linked to this assassination attempt. The White House Correspondents' Association dinner, an annual tradition, was expected to unfold peacefully in the presence of President Donald Trump, members of his administration, and numerous political figures. But a (new) assassination attempt against the most powerful man in the world took place in this prestigious, highly secure environment of the Washington Hilton. A man armed with 'multiple weapons', according to initial reports, was able to bypass all security barriers to approach the hall where practically all the country's top leaders were gathered, and open fire.

It is now no secret to anyone. Deep differences pit senior Iranian officials against each other regarding the direction that (potential) negotiations with the United States should take. This divide, which is increasingly bursting out into the open, has practically frozen, or even called into question, what some call "the diplomatic option" in the search for a way out of the current conflict. These differences tearing apart the two antagonistic currents within the Iranian regime – the Revolutionary Guards against the so-called "moderate" faction – have practically rendered obsolete the visit that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had begun at the end of the week in Islamabad. Right from the start, this visit by the head of Iranian diplomacy was torpedoed by the president of the national security commission in the Iranian Parliament, who declared that "Araghchi is not entrusted with any mission in Pakistan concerning the nuclear negotiations." He also stressed that "the nuclear negotiations constitute one of the red lines for Iran."

«Historic». The word was found in almost all speeches delivered Thursday evening (overnight in Lebanon) in Washington, on the sidelines of the second round of direct talks between Lebanon and Israel, under American patronage. These talks were held this time at the White House and no longer at the State Department, and what's more, in the presence of the American president himself, Donald Trump, which gave a whole new dimension to the event. Lebanon was once again represented by its ambassador Nada Moawad. In addition to Israel's ambassador to Washington, Yechiel Leiter, several American politicians were present: Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, US Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa (of Lebanese origin), US Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee.

All attention is focused on Washington, where the second round of direct talks between Lebanon and Israel, at ambassadorial level, is taking place at 11 PM Beirut time, while the conflict between Iran and the United States remains stuck in this grey zone of tensions into which it has slipped. A grey zone that can, however, at any moment tip towards escalation or appeasement, if mediators, particularly Pakistan, manage to find an acceptable agreement formula for both parties. For Lebanon, the stakes are considerably higher and revolve around two short-term and long-term objectives: in the short term, it is about obtaining, in a first phase, an extension of the ceasefire. Subsequently – which will be more complicated as long as Hezbollah is not disarmed – it is about obtaining a halt to Israeli acts of violence in the south of the country where Tel Aviv's soldiers continue to build a buffer zone through destruction, as well as a potential withdrawal of these forces, and the release of Lebanese prisoners held in Israel.

While total uncertainty continues to reign over the evolution of the conflict between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran, direct talks between Lebanon and Israel resume this Thursday, April 23, in Washington, in the afternoon (Levant time), under the aegis of the Department of State. An authorized local source indicated on Wednesday that the Lebanese delegation will demand the extension of the ceasefire in the South for a period of one month. The discussions could also focus, in parallel, on the practical organization (calendar, meeting venue, etc.) and the agenda for the upcoming bilateral negotiations.

President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday the extension of the ceasefire with Iran, without setting a new deadline, in order to give Tehran more time to negotiate. He nevertheless said he intended to maintain the blockade of Iranian ports, to the dismay of the Islamic Republic. Writing on his Truth Social platform, the U.S. president said he had decided to “extend the truce until Iran presents a proposal and talks are concluded, one way or another.” He said the decision had been taken in response to what he described as “deep divisions within the Iranian government” and at the request of Pakistan, the main mediator. He also said he had “ordered U.S. armed forces to maintain the naval blockade.” Tehran, which had made the lifting of the blockade a condition for attending the Islamabad talks, did not immediately comment on the extension. According to the semi-official Tasnim news agency, it would respond “at a later stage.”

As part of its ongoing effort to broaden its scope and deepen its coverage of major geopolitical issues on the international stage, “Levant Time” has entered into a close partnership with the media platform “ European Security ”, centered on the exchange of editorial content. Founded by a group of leading experts and academics, the European-based platform – independent of any state institution – focuses primarily on defense and security affairs in Europe and the United States. It aims to provide civilian and military decision-makers, as well as researchers, journalists and industry professionals, with authoritative texts, analyses, studies and articles addressing current challenges in the field of defense and security. Led by Joël-François Dumont, the publication also seeks to build connections and foster debate among all those concerned with these issues.

Suddenly, in less than 24 hours, what could be perceived as signs of panic manifested themselves on Saturday, April 18, within the Iranian camp, in the form of belligerent behavior and equally aggressive and hateful statements. The most serious development of that Saturday was undoubtedly the ambush laid by Hezbollah militants against a French UNIFIL unit conducting a patrol in the area of ​​the town of Ghandourieh, in the Bint Jbeil district, within UNIFIL's deployment zone south of the Litani River. One French peacekeeper was killed and three others wounded, two of them seriously. President Emmanuel Macron reacted strongly to this attack, clearly placing the responsibility for the shelling on Hezbollah and urging the Lebanese authorities to quickly identify the perpetrators and take the necessary measures against them. This attack against the French peacekeepers was strongly condemned by President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and even the Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri. President Aoun and the Prime Minister indicated that they had ordered the judiciary to conduct an investigation to arrest the perpetrators.

A significant new step was taken on Wednesday, April 16, towards restoring Lebanon's autonomy in decision-making, free from any regional dictates. A ten-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon (including Hezbollah) came into effect at midnight on Thursday night, following two telephone conversations that President Donald Trump held in the late afternoon with President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The White House chief himself announced the ceasefire in the early evening during a casual conversation with press correspondents. The announcement of this ceasefire under the auspices of the Trump Administration carries twofold strategic importance: firstly, it consolidates at the highest level the separation of the Lebanese and Iranian aspects of the ongoing conflict, as Tehran has insistently attempted in recent days to place any ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel under its control, with the aim of controlling Lebanon; and secondly, it largely legitimizes and reinforces the Executive's decision to engage in direct negotiations with Israel, with the prospect of a peace agreement between the two countries. President Trump also indicated, after the ceasefire announcement, that he had tasked Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Razin Caine with working towards achieving a lasting Lebanese-Israeli peace. The US president also emphasized his intention to invite President Aoun and Mr. Netanyahu to a meeting at the White House within two weeks.

The moment is, without a doubt, historic in more ways than one: symbolically, first; and in terms of the political impact and strategic dimension of the event, secondly. The symbolic aspect, first, is of particular importance in the local and regional context that no one ignores: Lebanon's Ambassador to Washington, Nada Hamadé Moawad, meeting face-to-face at the State Department in Washington with Israel's Ambassador, Yechiel Leiter, under the auspices of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, with the Lebanese, Israeli, and American flags side by side in the background… The image would have been political fiction just a few months ago.