War in Iran: The mixed signals continue

The scenario from last weekend repeated itself on this Friday, May 29th. The media and public opinion experienced another roller coaster ride regarding American-Iranian negotiations mediated by Pakistan, aimed at ending the war situation that began on February 28th, as a prelude to bilateral talks on the major issues fueling the conflict between the United States and the Islamic Republic.

As was the case last weekend, a wave of optimism swept through Friday afternoon, with reports of an imminent official announcement of a 'framework agreement' between Washington and Tehran. President Donald Trump was expected to publicly announce that he was lifting the naval blockade imposed on Iranian ports and that he was preparing to hold a meeting at the White House with his team of senior officials and advisors to 'make a final decision' regarding the emerging framework agreement.

Following President Trump's announcement, media outlets received information about the terms of the memorandum of understanding in question. According to these leaks, the document provides for the immediate restoration of free maritime circulation through the Strait of Hormuz, without tolls or conditions (in exchange for lifting the naval blockade) and the destruction by the United States of enriched uranium stockpiles, 'in collaboration with the Islamic Republic and the International Atomic Energy Agency.' However, no measures were planned to end the freeze on part of Iranian assets.

Nearly an hour after these details were disclosed, Iranian authorities, at least those close to the Revolutionary Guards, claimed that no agreement had yet been reached, that the information reported by President Trump was inaccurate, and, to top it off, that 'Iran is the one imposing its conditions' on the US Administration, not the other way around.

The manifestly negative climate filtered to the media by the Iranian regime's faction close to the Pasdaran apparently had an impact on the course of the meeting chaired by President Trump at the White House. After two hours of discussions among senior American officials, President Trump made no announcement, contrary to what had been indicated in the afternoon. The New York Times reported that evening, citing a senior US official, that no decision was made regarding the framework agreement project, noting that 'some questions still need to be discussed.' Late in the evening, the US Treasury was to clarify that 'the blockade imposed on Iranian ports will be lifted gradually.'

Israeli advances and Pentagon talks

This diplomatic impasse did not overshadow developments on the military operations front, more specifically in Lebanon. The Israeli military continued its 'steamroller' operation Friday against Hezbollah positions, infrastructure, and militiamen. New intensive air raids were conducted against several localities in the South and West Bekaa. Meanwhile, according to various sources, the Israeli military continues to gain ground and is reported to have reached the outskirts of Nabatieh. Late in the evening, al-Hadath reported that Israeli forces were 500 meters from Beaufort Castle. Other sources indicated late in the evening that the IDF had virtually reached the medieval crusader castle.

Earlier in the day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu conducted an inspection tour at the border with Lebanon. In a statement to press correspondents, he indicated that the Israeli military had crossed the Litani River and had taken positions on the region's strategic hills.

"We are acting forcefully in Beirut, the South and the Bekaa, without restrictions," Mr. Netanyahu stated, citing a "collapse of Hezbollah"... Various news sources reported on Friday evening a "collapse of Hezbollah on all fronts." However, these reports could not be confirmed from independent sources.

It was in this particularly tense and explosive atmosphere that the first direct Lebanese-Israeli negotiation meeting took place Friday afternoon (Levant time) at the Pentagon, as part of a "security process" running parallel to the political process of bilateral negotiations.

On the sidelines of the Pentagon meeting, Secretary of State Marco Rubio contacted President Joseph Aoun by telephone to review the progress of Lebanese-Israeli dialogue.

According to a statement from the presidential office, the head of state emphasized on this occasion the importance of a ceasefire as a prerequisite for any progress in negotiations with Israel.

The head of American diplomacy in turn reaffirmed his country's support for "Lebanon's sovereignty, stability and independence, as well as its right to decide its own future."

According to a State Department statement, Mr. Rubio paid tribute to "the courage of President Joseph Aoun, who took the initiative to engage in negotiations with Israel." The Secretary of State further stressed that "Hezbollah bears full responsibility for the ongoing fighting in Lebanon." He stated that "Hezbollah continues its attempts to obstruct negotiations with Israel."