Netanyahu’s Order to the Army: “Crush Hezbollah”

On this Monday, May 25, the mood was a far cry from Saturday’s apparent enthusiasm over what had been described as an imminent regional breakthrough, driven by an Iranian-American statement of intent expected to kick-start a second round of negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

To be sure, talks have picked up pace, with the various parties involved in mediation reporting progress. Yet, as the saying goes, the devil is in the details – and those details remain many. As of Monday, officials are still only speaking of a deal that “could be concluded in the coming days.” On Saturday, Washington and Tehran had presented it as almost imminent.

Still, cautious optimism persists, at least on the surface. Tehran has officially acknowledged, through the spokesperson of its Foreign Ministry, that “conclusions on a large part of the issues under review” have been reached. However, these do not include the most critical matters. The latest indications suggest the deadlock centers on frozen Iranian assets and the nuclear file. In this case, the very core issue!

In Doha, Iranian Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator in the Islamabad talks Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, along with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, held discussions on Monday with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani on possible solutions to these two dossiers. According to Reuters, which reported the information, the talks also touched on the future of the Strait of Hormuz. The governor of Iran’s central bank joined the meeting for the part of the talks focused on a possible thawing of Iranian assets held abroad, frozen as a result of U.S. sanctions. For Tehran, which is facing severe financial and economic difficulties, this issue is a top priority. Iran wants part of these funds to be released before any agreement is reached and is calling for a clear mechanism to guarantee the unfreezing of the remaining assets, according to the Iranian news agency Tasnim. Washington, for its part, has so far rejected this, arguing that any release of funds should be the result of a deal.

Qatar is involved in the ongoing mediation alongside Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey. At the end of his discussions, the Qatari prime minister contacted his Omani counterpart to explore ways of supporting reconciliation efforts, particularly to reduce the risk of escalation in the region. The initiative may be linked to the fact that Tehran is currently in talks with Muscat over a possible coordination scheme for imposing a transit fee in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran continues to support the measure, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf reiterated on Monday, describing it as “navigation maintenance fees.” It is, however, still rejected by the United States and by countries whose tankers and cargo ships pass through this maritime route under international law. Does this mean there is still a long way to go before any possible compromise is reached? Most likely, as while Tehran is showing signs of openness, it continues to avoid appearing as though it is yielding to U.S. pressure and seeks to preserve room for maneuver on both the nuclear issue and sanctions, as reflected in remarks by Ghalibaf and by Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. The latter stated on Monday that “Tehran will not back down, as both the situation on the ground and the diplomatic process have shown.”

Trump Softens Tone

On the American side, following the backlash triggered by his forceful Saturday declaration of an “imminent deal,” deemed too accommodating by several Republican senators, President Donald Trump has sought to soften his remarks. On Monday, he posted on his Truth Social platform: “The deal will be excellent and meaningful, otherwise there will be no deal.”

Trump stressed that any potential agreement “will not resemble the 2015 Vienna nuclear deal with Iran,” concluded under Barack Obama’s administration. He again raised the prospect of strikes in the event of failed mediation, as press reports pointed to alleged U.S. paramilitary activity in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump also directly addressed Arab countries involved in the mediation process, insisting that in the event of a deal, they must join the Abraham Accords.

Lebanon and Israeli Exasperation

Lebanon remains a sticking point, with Tehran seeking to include it in a broader agreement with the United States. For Israel, such an option is out of the question – a position Trump appears to acknowledge, particularly as the Hezbollah issue is expected to be handled within direct talks between Beirut and Tel Aviv. A meeting, framed as part of a “security process,” is scheduled for May 29 at the Pentagon.

According to various Israeli media outlets, Tel Aviv appears inclined to broaden the scope of its strikes in Lebanon in an effort to eliminate the drone threat posed by Hezbollah. The Axios website, for its part, reported that the Trump administration would support a large-scale military operation against the Shiite party. Late on Monday evening, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had ordered the army to “crush” Hezbollah.

On Monday, the Israeli army intensified its strikes in southern Lebanon, targeting several neighborhoods in the city of Tyre, a stronghold of Parliament Speaker and Amal Movement leader Nabih Berri, as well as the nearby Palestinian camp of Rashidieh and the Nabatiyeh region.

At the same time, Hezbollah stepped up its attacks using explosive drones against Israeli soldiers stationed in southern Lebanon. One soldier was killed and several others were injured, according to the Israeli army, whose chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, called for a forceful response. He argued that Tel Aviv should carry out direct strikes on buildings in the southern suburbs of Beirut in retaliation. This view was echoed by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, while National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir called for “a return to intensive warfare” and for “taking control” of the area stretching up to the Zahrani River, north of the Litani.

In practice, late on Monday evening, all information coming out of Tel Aviv pointed to an imminent and rapid escalation against Hezbollah, with explicit backing from Washington.