Israel demands evacuation of all of southern Lebanon

Wednesday, May 27 ended with two developments that offer little cause for optimism: during an expanded meeting of his ministerial team, President Donald Trump emphasized that he "is not satisfied with what Iran is proposing" for the memorandum of understanding currently being negotiated between the two countries; at the same time, the Israeli military was recording a "first" by asking residents Wednesday evening to evacuate "all of South Lebanon" and retreat "north of the Zahrani River", a few kilometers south of Sidon!

The overall political climate began to turn red in the middle of the day following reports from Iran's official television regarding the content of the draft memorandum being discussed between American and Iranian negotiators, through Pakistani mediators. Iranian television, widely picked up by the media, thus reported having obtained "a draft of an initial unofficial framework agreement for a protocol agreement with the United States".

According to the Iranian media outlet, the terms of this framework agreement would stipulate that "Iran would restore commercial maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz within one month" and remove mines from the area, while the United States "would commit" to ending its military presence in the region and lifting its blockade of Iranian ports. Nothing about nuclear issues…

The White House was quick to respond by stating that this information is entirely baseless and "fabricated out of thin air", as Reuters reported.

Trump's statements

For his part, President Trump held a meeting of his ministerial team at the White House on Wednesday (rather than at Camp David as originally planned) to discuss negotiations with Iran. "We are not satisfied with the Iranian proposals regarding the memorandum of understanding", the American president emphasized during this meeting, adding that American forces may "have to return to Iran to finish the job".

Earlier in the day, the White House chief told BBC News that "Iran will not get sanctions relief in exchange for giving up enriched uranium". President Trump also reiterated that Iran "wants a deal and has no other choice", asserting that his administration "has still not reached an agreement with Iran and is not satisfied with it". He stressed in this context that Iran "is very weak" currently.

For his part, Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted that "options remain open on the Iranian issue, but what is certain is that this country will not obtain a nuclear weapon".

As if responding to the American administration, a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards official estimated that the probability of another war is "low", pointing to the "weakness of the enemy". He assured that Iranian armed forces remained ready to intervene, "their magazines full". In another surprising statement, Iran's Ministry of Intelligence noted that the United States and Israel were still seeking to overthrow the Islamic Republic "by new means", after having "failed" to do so through strikes.

The South Lebanon evacuation order

In Lebanon, the Israeli escalation continues relentlessly. One of the day's main stories was the evacuation notice for all of South Lebanon. The Israeli military in fact invited all residents of the South to withdraw north of the Zahrani, specifying that the region south of this river is a "combat zone". The IDF emphasized its determination to launch a major offensive against Hezbollah in this area.

Another major flashpoint in the South is the town of Zawtar al-Charkiya in the Nabatiyeh area, where fierce clashes have erupted between Hezbollah militants and the Israeli army, which is advancing along this axis. According to analysts, the Israelis are seeking to capture Beaufort Castle, a highly strategic hilltop, on their route toward the city of Nabatiyeh. Their operations in Tyre also suggest a push in this direction.

Hezbollah continues to use its missiles extensively against the Israeli army in Lebanon, as well as its most effective weapon at present—explosive drones—beyond its borders. How much longer will it be able to slow the Israeli advance? The Iranian-backed party appears to be increasingly adhering to its guerrilla tactics, sacrificing territory in favor of a war of attrition.

The Qaraoun Dam Issue

On another note, it should be mentioned that the three strikes that targeted the Qaraoun Dam in the Bekaa Valley last Tuesday, May 26, have triggered alarming reactions from the National Litani Authority and the Union of Bouhayra Municipalities, which represents 19 villages along the lake's shore.

(Pages Facebook Al Buhaira Union of Municipalities, Machghara Municipality)

The Qaraoun Dam was built according to the so-called "gravity dam" model. While it does have a concrete "core" at its center and up to a certain height, the pressure exerted by the artificial lake's waters is primarily contained by a massive embankment that "crowns" this concrete structure.

This embankment plays a crucial role in stabilizing the rocks and preventing them from sliding toward the dam's base. From a technical and architectural standpoint, the road bombed last Tuesday is an integral part of the embankment in question.

A retaining wall was built along this section to keep the rock masses in place and protect the dam structure against any landslides or structural impacts. Consequently, the road targeted by the Israeli strikes is not merely a route connecting the western and eastern banks of the Litani, but rather a structural and functional element of the dam's protection system.

The Israeli strikes were likely aimed at isolating West Bekaa from South Lebanon by cutting off Hezbollah's communication and logistical support routes.

Following the bombing of the bridge connecting the village of Machghara (which came under intense Israeli strikes on Tuesday and where tunnels were discovered) to the village of Sohmor, another Hezbollah stronghold located on the opposite bank of the Litani, the only remaining passable road was the one across the dam. Now, with this route neutralized, traffic must either head further north toward Kefraya or take another route southward near Nabatiyeh. In either case, these routes are longer and more exposed.

In this context, the National Litani Authority issued a statement warning of the dangers posed by repeated attacks near the dam's installations. The Authority emphasizes that any attack, direct or indirect, against the Qaraoun Dam or its facilities could have catastrophic consequences for the population, infrastructure, and essential equipment located downstream.

(Page Facebook Litani River Authority, litani.gov.lb,)

It has also reposted a projection developed by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which describes potential flooding scenarios in the event of a dam breach and identifies vulnerable areas likely to be inundated following structural damage or an attack on the dam.