Articles

Lebanese memory is punctuated by significant moments, but rare are those that truly constituted a turning point in the country's history like the March 14, 2005 demonstration. That day, it was not merely a massive demonstration in the heart of Beirut, but a rare moment when Lebanese united around a common idea: the restoration of the state. This moment occurred after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, a crime that not only shook Lebanon but also disrupted the course of its political life. The assassination of a figure of Hariri's stature was not a mere security incident, but a true political earthquake that revealed the extent of the crisis Lebanon was experiencing, under the security and political yoke of Damascus since the end of the civil war.

And what about forgiveness when the offenders know perfectly well and consciously what they are doing? What about leniency towards those who don't give a damn about the country, others, or even their own? In the name of Khamenei and the Islamic Republic, Hezbollah launches rockets at the country that annihilated its supreme leader in a single strike. The supposed leader of Hezbollah, Naim Kassem, the one in hiding, launches 'Karbalaean' wars, battles named after Quranic verses, thus honoring its original name, 'the Islamic resistance in Lebanon'. And meanwhile, it's death, destruction, panic, chaos. Forgive them?

Hezbollah, you probably had something to prove! By launching a "salvo of missiles and a swarm of drones" towards Israel in the early hours of Monday, March 2, you certainly had something in mind. To this day, the consequences are incalculable: more than seven hundred dead, ruthless eradication of entire neighborhoods, nearly nine hundred thousand displaced from their homes, including more than 150,000 who found refuge only in the precariousness and promiscuity of collective shelters! Why didn't you keep a low profile? You could not have shown such immaturity when you knew that the Hebrew state's retaliation would be disproportionate. In your capacity as a "self-proclaimed resistance movement," you were not big enough to measure yourself against the IDF, especially since you had been decapitated on September 17 by the "pagers." What then was the purpose of your act of provocation? Your pathetic fireworks could not reverse the course of the situation, especially since the missiles fired from Iran had proven ineffective and insufficient and had provided proof of the vulnerability of a clerical regime on the ropes.

Fears of a military conflict between Iran and the axis formed by Israel and the United States getting bogged down are being confirmed as developments on the ground accelerate and political and military confrontation between Tehran and Washington intensifies. On the fourteenth day of the war raging since February 28, Washington and Tel Aviv insist on their determination to annihilate the military capabilities of Tehran, which is reacting by expanding the scope of its attacks, just hours after the bellicose televised message from the new Iranian Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who was nevertheless injured in the violent strike that killed his father, Ali Khamenei. Diplomacy still seems to have no place in this tug-of-war whose outcome remains uncertain.

In contemporary geopolitics, there are few points on the map capable of altering the course of the world economy in a matter of moments. The Strait of Hormuz is among the most consequential of them. This narrow maritime passage, separating Iran from the Sultanate of Oman, forms the vital artery through which oil and gas are exported from the Gulf to the rest of the world. Any military tension in the region — particularly given the persistent escalation between Iran and Israel — places this strait at the very heart of the international equation. This is no longer merely a regional dispute or a limited military confrontation. What is at stake is the potential destabilization of one of the main pillars of the global economy.

The sheer number of rockets recently fired from Lebanese territory toward Israel speaks to several things at once. Chief among them is this: unlike the Lebanese authorities, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has not wasted a moment since the ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel was reached. That was on November 23, 2024, under the government of President Najib Mikati. President Nabih Berri had played a pivotal role in brokering the agreement, which reflected the Party’s urgent need, at that juncture, to halt the fighting at any cost. It has become abundantly clear that Israel exploited the ceasefire to assert its freedom to continue its campaign against Hezbollah, while the Revolutionary Guard used the same agreement to consolidate its presence in Lebanon and prepare for the coming phase of confrontation between Iran on one side and America and Israel on the other.