The Impact of a Ukrainian or Russian Victory (4/5)

The war in Ukraine continues to be at the center of a wide-ranging debate, fueled in part by near-daily bombardments targeting key nerve centers on both sides, and more specifically the Russian and Ukrainian capitals.

In order to better understand the various dimensions of this long-standing conflict, it is necessary to revisit the background and origins of what led to this (fratricidal?) war – by examining the motivations and aspirations of the different parties involved, including the West (the United States and Europe, extended to all NATO member states with the exception of Turkey), and by also recalling the early stages of the Russian offensive and the failed attempts to reach peace, or at least to open negotiations, bearing in mind that responsibility in this context is shared by many.

To fully grasp the ins and outs of the various aspects of the war in Ukraine, some fundamental questions should be raised from the outset. What do Russia and Ukraine represent for the West? What could be the concrete implications of a clear-cut victory by either of the two protagonists? And by the same token, what would the consequences be for the West and the Middle East?

In a series of five articles, Jean-Patrick Dayras, a rear admiral in the French Navy, sets out his vision and analysis of the issue.

Looking ahead: What if...

A – If Ukraine wins, recovering almost all of its territory

For Ukraine, the consequences could include:

– A significant strengthening of its international position.

– Faster integration into the European Union, although full membership would still be a lengthy process.

– Even closer military cooperation with NATO, whether or not Ukraine ultimately becomes a formal member.

– A weakening of Russia’s influence in parts of Eastern Europe.

For Russia, the consequences would depend on the scale of the defeat. However, several outcomes seem inevitable:

– It would lose a substantial measure of its international standing.

– It would bear lasting economic costs as a result of sanctions, reconstruction efforts, and the restoration of its military capabilities.

– It would call the Kremlin’s policies into question, with their future direction depending on developments within Russia.

– Russia’s long-standing policy in Africa, as well as in a number of BRICS+ member and associated states, would suffer as a result.

Note: Chad has recently adopted a policy of closer ties with France, perhaps as a prelude to a shift in African geopolitics. This should be examined carefully before such a conclusion can be confirmed.

That said, it is difficult to predict that a Russian defeat would automatically lead to regime change. History suggests that developments of this kind depend on a wide range of domestic factors.

For Europe

A Ukrainian victory could:

– Strengthen the sense of security among the countries of Northern, Central, and Eastern Europe.

– Keep defense spending at a high level.

– Accelerate the energy diversification efforts already underway since 2022.

For the United States

Such an outcome could be presented as a success for the United States’ policy of supporting Ukraine and its alliances. However, it would not put an end to Washington’s other strategic challenges, including its rivalry with China and its difficult negotiations with Iran.

For China

Beijing would closely examine the lessons of the conflict, particularly with regard to the possibility of a forcible invasion of Taiwan. A Russian defeat could lead China to:

– Further strengthen certain ties with Moscow in order to preserve a strategic partner, albeit from a position of dominance.

– Reassess certain aspects of its foreign policy, particularly with regard to Iran, Taiwan, and the emerging alignment among Australia, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.

For International Organizations

A Ukrainian victory would be interpreted as reinforcing the principle that borders must not be changed by force. It could strengthen the credibility of certain norms of international law, although their application would remain dependent on the balance of power among states.

The Limits of This Scenario

Even in the event of a Ukrainian military victory, several challenges would remain:

– Rebuilding the country, at an estimated cost of several hundred billion euros, which would have to be borne by Russia.

– The return of refugees (that is only the view of those who believe it will happen).

– Clearing vast areas of landmines.

– Legal proceedings relating to alleged war crimes (it remains to be seen whether Ukrainians, too, could be implicated in similar crimes).

– Future relations among Russia, Ukraine, and the European countries.

Such a victory would not erase geopolitical tensions. Even if Ukraine were to achieve its principal military objectives, relations between Russia and the West would likely remain marked by enduring mistrust, increased militarization in certain regions, and a reconfiguration of Europe’s security architecture. The consequences would also depend on the circumstances in which the conflict came to an end: a negotiated settlement, a lasting ceasefire, or a decisive military defeat would not have the same implications.

B – Russia Wins, Ukraine Loses

Everything would depend on what is meant by “Russia wins.” The consequences would be very different depending on whether this refers to limited territorial gains, the lasting control of part of Ukraine, or a change of government in Kyiv.

A Ukrainian defeat could result in:

– The lasting loss of all or part of the occupied territories.

– Considerable human, economic, and demographic costs.

– A slowdown in reconstruction efforts and investment.

– The continuation of a significant refugee movement towards other European countries.

Ukraine’s political future would depend on the conditions under which the conflict ends: a ceasefire, a peace treaty, or an imposed agreement would not have the same consequences.

If Moscow were to achieve its main objectives, this could result in:

– A strengthening of the Kremlin’s position domestically.

– The presentation of the outcome as a strategic victory.

– The preservation of its influence over part of Ukraine and its neighborhood, including Moldova.

However, even in the event of military success, Russia could continue to face:

– Western economic sanctions.

– Increased dependence on certain partners such as China, India, or other non-Western states.

– High costs linked to the reconstruction of the territories under its control and the maintenance of significant military forces.

For Europe

A Russian victory would likely lead to:

– A lasting increase in European states’ defense spending.

– A strengthening of NATO’s presence on its eastern flank (but with or without the United States?).

– An acceleration of policies aimed at reducing energy dependence on Russia.

Some also fear that Russia’s neighboring countries, particularly the Baltic states, would seek even stronger security guarantees.

For the United States

The United States could see its strategy in Ukraine called into question, potentially fueling a domestic debate over its foreign policy and the level of support it provides to its allies (including those in the Arab Gulf and on the Arabian Peninsula).

For China

A Russian victory could be interpreted in different ways:

– Some would see it as proof that a major power can achieve certain objectives despite sanctions.

– Others would highlight the conflict’s very high economic, human, and diplomatic costs, which could also serve as a warning.

In any case, China would emerge as the country that allowed Russia to prevail through the support it provided. It would be the great winner. Russia would no longer be a giant standing before it.

For International Law

Many legal experts believe that the lasting acquisition of territories through the use of force would pose a major challenge to the principle of territorial integrity of states, enshrined in particular by the United Nations. Others point out that historical precedents are varied and that international reactions often depend on the balance of power. The United Nations Security Council would see its standing decline and could even face renewed calls to question its role.

The Limits of This Scenario

Even in the event of a Russian victory, several factors could limit the benefits it derives from it:

– The long-term economic cost.

– The management of potentially unstable territories.

– Continued isolation from a significant part of Western countries.

– The risk of insurgency or persistent instability, depending on the areas concerned.

– The victory would be tarnished by disapproval because of the length of time required to achieve an objective that had initially been expected to be reached quickly, or even easily (a war lasting longer than the First World War).

– Russia’s standing in Africa would undoubtedly suffer as well.

In Summary

The consequences of a Russian victory would depend on its scale and on the conditions under which the war ends.

European security would remain profoundly transformed, relations between Russia and Western countries would remain deeply strained for a long time, and Europe’s security order would continue to be reshaped for many years to come. By contrast, the precise effects on Russian domestic politics, the global balance of power, or future alliances remain largely uncertain and continue to be debated among specialists.

The Final Word

The consequences outlined above highlight that this conflict will mark the disappearance of victory as understood within the Westphalian order and model.

Next article

Ukrainian or Russian Victory: Consequences for the Middle East (5/5)

Also worth reading on the same topic

How the West chose Ukraine (1/5)

War in Ukraine: the failure of the first peace efforts (2/5)

War in Ukraine: Russian Strategic Mistakes and Western Clumsiness (3/5)