COP31 in Turkey: High Ambitions, But Little Hope

The 31st summit of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP31) opened on Monday in Antalya, Turkey, under an unprecedented arrangement in which Australia will lead most of the negotiations. This year’s COP is taking place against a particularly challenging geopolitical backdrop, marked by the war in Iran, the closure of several straits, notably the Strait of Hormuz, and other ongoing conflicts. These wars affect global emissions and the resilience of populations already weakened by economic crises and migration. Yet negotiators continue to refuse to include these issues in climate talks, much to the dismay of many NGOs.

The United States, the largest historical emitter and currently the world’s second-largest emitter after China, will once again be absent from the COP, at least officially, following its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. The impact of climate-sceptic President Donald Trump’s defeat in the midterm elections on November 3 is unlikely to be felt yet, but the issue is expected to weigh heavily on participants’ minds and feature prominently in their conversations.

The climate situation itself is also deeply concerning, as the world faces an exceptional El Niño event this year that could have severe repercussions this winter across virtually every region of the globe. According to the United Nations, scientists also confirm that the planet could temporarily exceed the Paris Agreement’s 2015 threshold of 1.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels within the next two years. The urgency is therefore very real.

One of the major issues expected to be addressed at COP31 is the expansion of electrification, with the aim of increasing the share of clean energy to 35% by 2035 to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels. According to the United Nations, solar energy, electric vehicles and battery storage are becoming increasingly accessible, but many countries are still falling short of expectations.

Climate finance will also be a major issue at this COP, as it has been at every previous summit. Developing countries are expected to call for additional funding, particularly for climate adaptation, which remains notoriously underfunded.

COP31 will also provide an opportunity to launch a review of countries’ climate ambitions. Countries are being encouraged to strengthen their commitments by updating their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). These contributions, which set out national targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, should have been revised last year, but relatively few countries met that commitment.

Another key theme of this COP will be the protection of oceans, which serve as vital carbon sinks. The so-called “blue economy” will feature prominently on the summit’s agenda, with an entire day devoted to the topic.

Nearly 100,000 participants are expected in Antalya for the event, but many observers believe COP31 will not deliver any historic breakthroughs, given the challenges outlined above.