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The Red Sea and the Horn of Africa: The Shifting Balance of Power in the Middle East (1/6)

Gulf rivalries, African vulnerabilities, and prospects for regional security
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By Khalil Helou
Published Oct 22, 2026 - 14:59
The Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Gulf of Aden and the Horn of Africa form a strategic space contiguous with the rest of the Middle East. Treating them as separate theaters obscures the mechanisms through which a local war, rivalry over ports or a maritime attack simultaneously affects the Arabian Peninsula, East Africa and international trade. Stretching between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean, this corridor links, through the Suez Canal, economies whose interests are interdependent but whose means of protection and political priorities remain profoundly different. Local actors in this space include the states of the Horn of Africa and its surrounding areas—Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Sudan—as well as Yemen on the Arabian shore. They also include authorities and forces without state status, notably the breakaway territory of Somaliland, which claims independence from Somalia; the Houthis in Yemen, who see themselves as the state; the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan; and the armed group Al-Shabaab in Somalia. Regional powers—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Turkey, Israel and Iran—intervene through investment, diplomatic partnerships, and military and security support. Moreover, as coastal states, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are both directly affected and capable of projecting influence beyond their borders.
The New World
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By Khairallah Khairallah - Published Oct 22, 2026 - 14:28
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Campaign rally for Benjamin Netanyahu in Dimona, Israel, on October 21, 2026. (Photo: ILIA YEFIMOVICH / AFP)
The political deadlock gripping the region today, at every level, is the product of years of investment in extremism, violence, and terrorism, in which several actors have converged, from the Israeli right to Iran, including the Islamic Republic’s instruments in the region, notably Hamas and Hezbollah. The former Syrian regime was hardly removed from these forces. It was an honorary member of the Tehran-led “resistance front,” having ensured long years of calm and stability along the front in the Golan Heights, occupied since 1967. Against this backdrop, Israel heads into its general elections with several questions looming, including whether Benjamin Netanyahu will have a political future after the vote. The question is particularly pressing given that the man who has served as prime minister for so many years is already on trial for corruption, proceedings whose consequences could weigh even more heavily on his future if he loses power.
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Sisi Stresses the Defensive Nature of Support for Riyadh

Egypt condemns Turkish-Libyan maritime agreement that threatens its sovereign rights
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By LevantTime . - Published Oct 22, 2026 - 00:02
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Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi stressed on Wednesday that the military support offered to his Saudi ally against Yemen's pro-Iranian Houthis was strictly defensive, saying no attack on Yemen was planned. “The aim is to defend the kingdom's territory and borders, as well as those of any other Arab state, if Egypt is asked to do so,” the president said in a speech, as Tehran issued a warning to Cairo. Any military involvement would mark a break with Egypt's cautious diplomacy, which in recent years has prioritized safeguarding its own national security. But Riyadh, which has also received pledges of defensive support from France and the United Kingdom, has long been a key ally of Cairo.
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Iran-United States: false start and tensions in Lucerne

Lebanon was at the center of talks on Sunday between Iran and the United States in Switzerland. While Tehran claimed to have closed the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. Vice President JD Vance delivered remarks in an upbeat tone, President Donald Trump responded to the strait's closure with threats against Iran, prompting the Iranian negotiators to suspend the discussions. As for Lebanon, all eyes are on the direct negotiations with Israel, which have drawn the ire of Hezbollah. Sunday, June 21: the start of U.S.-Iran talks in Lucerne, Switzerland. The American delegation was led by Vice President JD Vance, and the Iranian delegation by Parliament Speaker Mohammed Ghalibaf. After a false start — the talks had originally been scheduled for Friday at the same venue — they finally got underway two days later. They were far from smooth, once again laying bare the deep divisions between the former adversaries.

The semiotic engineering of power
By
Yakzan Takki
Published

Contemporary political discourse is no longer measured solely by what a leader says, but by the meanings and symbols his words, movements, and images generate. From this perspective, the performance of U.S. President Donald Trump stands as one of the most striking semiotic models in contemporary politics—one in which language, body, and image merge into integrated tools for the production of power and influence. Donald Trump's political discourse represents an exceptional case in contemporary political literature, owing to its linguistic and semiotic characteristics, which have made it a subject of study across political science, communication studies, and political psychology.

United States–Israel: Relations and Their Discontents

Many analysts have taken note of the unusually critical remarks made by U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance toward Israel, viewing them as an unprecedented stance, despite the massive political, military, and economic support that Washington continues to provide to Tel Aviv. Indeed, Vance reminded Israeli critics of the diplomatic agreement with Tehran that two-thirds of the weapons that have "protected their homeland" are American-made and fully funded by U.S. taxpayers. He stressed that Israel relies too heavily on military force to resolve its crises, and that it should show greater deference to Washington as its one and only remaining strategic ally in the world. In an interview with the New York Times , Vance noted that Donald Trump is the only world leader currently showing sympathy toward Israel, before addressing Israelis directly:

Hormuz and Lebanon, Tehran's two levers
By
LevantTime .
Published

The Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon: two key military-diplomatic "weapons" Iran intends to wield to strengthen its position in negotiations with the United States, which are set to unfold over 60 days according to the memorandum signed Wednesday by both parties. Iran announced on Saturday that it was once again "closing" the strategic Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for Israeli strikes on Lebanon, while stopping short of breaking off talks aimed at reaching a final agreement with the US, which are due to begin Sunday in Switzerland. Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaïl Baghaï warned the United States on Saturday that the initial protocol would be "at risk" if its provisions were not implemented swiftly, in an apparent reference to the situation in Lebanon.

An American Administration That Does Not Know Iran
By
Khairallah Khairallah
Published

On paper, the American-Iranian memorandum of understanding eventually signed by President Donald Trump and President Masoud Pezeshkian appears to be a document in which all outstanding questions remain unresolved. Apart from reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the American naval blockade imposed on the “Islamic Republic”, nothing points to any breakthrough on the issues that continue to divide Washington and Tehran. Can one also say, at least on paper, that the Trump administration has chosen to yield to Iran rather than follow through on its initial determination to break its capacity for disruption and put an end to its expansionist project, as it had originally intended?

What Truth Is Naim Qassem Trying to Hide?

Every time Hezbollah faces a political, military, or popular crisis, its leaders return to the same lexicon: resistance, victory, sovereignty, the rejection of any tutelage. Heavy words, charged with strong emotion, yet losing more of their persuasive power among the Lebanese with each passing day, as the gap between the rhetoric and the reality keeps widening. In his latest speech, Hezbollah's secretary general, Sheikh Naim Qassem, claimed that the Party remained faithful to the Taif Agreement and the Lebanese Constitution, that its weapons were aimed at Israel, and that it was facing projects of foreign allegiance and tutelage. A statement that appears coherent at first glance, but collapses the moment it meets the facts.