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The Red Sea and the Horn of Africa: The Shifting Balance of Power in the Middle East (1/6)

Gulf rivalries, African vulnerabilities, and prospects for regional security
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By Khalil Helou
Published Oct 22, 2026 - 14:59
The Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Gulf of Aden and the Horn of Africa form a strategic space contiguous with the rest of the Middle East. Treating them as separate theaters obscures the mechanisms through which a local war, rivalry over ports or a maritime attack simultaneously affects the Arabian Peninsula, East Africa and international trade. Stretching between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean, this corridor links, through the Suez Canal, economies whose interests are interdependent but whose means of protection and political priorities remain profoundly different. Local actors in this space include the states of the Horn of Africa and its surrounding areas—Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Sudan—as well as Yemen on the Arabian shore. They also include authorities and forces without state status, notably the breakaway territory of Somaliland, which claims independence from Somalia; the Houthis in Yemen, who see themselves as the state; the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan; and the armed group Al-Shabaab in Somalia. Regional powers—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Turkey, Israel and Iran—intervene through investment, diplomatic partnerships, and military and security support. Moreover, as coastal states, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are both directly affected and capable of projecting influence beyond their borders.
The New World
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By Khairallah Khairallah - Published Oct 22, 2026 - 14:28
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Campaign rally for Benjamin Netanyahu in Dimona, Israel, on October 21, 2026. (Photo: ILIA YEFIMOVICH / AFP)
The political deadlock gripping the region today, at every level, is the product of years of investment in extremism, violence, and terrorism, in which several actors have converged, from the Israeli right to Iran, including the Islamic Republic’s instruments in the region, notably Hamas and Hezbollah. The former Syrian regime was hardly removed from these forces. It was an honorary member of the Tehran-led “resistance front,” having ensured long years of calm and stability along the front in the Golan Heights, occupied since 1967. Against this backdrop, Israel heads into its general elections with several questions looming, including whether Benjamin Netanyahu will have a political future after the vote. The question is particularly pressing given that the man who has served as prime minister for so many years is already on trial for corruption, proceedings whose consequences could weigh even more heavily on his future if he loses power.
Today's Essential

Sisi Stresses the Defensive Nature of Support for Riyadh

Egypt condemns Turkish-Libyan maritime agreement that threatens its sovereign rights
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By LevantTime . - Published Oct 22, 2026 - 00:02
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Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi stressed on Wednesday that the military support offered to his Saudi ally against Yemen's pro-Iranian Houthis was strictly defensive, saying no attack on Yemen was planned. “The aim is to defend the kingdom's territory and borders, as well as those of any other Arab state, if Egypt is asked to do so,” the president said in a speech, as Tehran issued a warning to Cairo. Any military involvement would mark a break with Egypt's cautious diplomacy, which in recent years has prioritized safeguarding its own national security. But Riyadh, which has also received pledges of defensive support from France and the United Kingdom, has long been a key ally of Cairo.
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SpaceX: The Birth of the First Corporate Superpower?

On June 12, 2026, financial markets around the world witnessed a moment of history unfolding in real time. Just hours after its IPO, SpaceX crossed the symbolic threshold of a $2 trillion market capitalization, making it the largest initial public offering ever completed. Its founder, Elon Musk, simultaneously became the first individual in human history to see his personal net worth surpass one trillion dollars. Unsurprisingly, Wall Street immediately split into two camps. For some, this valuation represents the ultimate expression of the speculative excess of our era: a market intoxicated by technology, artificial intelligence, and boundless growth narratives.

Understanding and Reconciliation
By
Hisham Dibsi
Published

President Trump reacted with unexpected speed after the Revolutionary Guards once again announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This time, he turned his anger against his ally Netanyahu, imposing a ceasefire in South Lebanon in order to safeguard the progress of the negotiations underway in their Swiss phase. Yet this new day of closure did not prevent fifty five supertankers from reaching global markets under American protection, according to data from the Central Command, as well as statements made by President Trump and Vice President J. D. Vance. At this point, there is little value in questioning the sincerity of either side, nor is there any need to search for the truth behind every detail, since the “Memorandum of Understanding” allows both parties to present it in whatever way best serves their respective needs.

From Lucerne to Washington, Lebanon defends its sovereignty

Negotiations between Iranian and American delegations, following the framework agreement signed by both parties last week, continued on Monday in Lucerne, Switzerland. That said, this diplomatic process is still in its early stages, and many grey areas remain. Questions are mounting, however: are we heading toward an era in which Iran will reclaim its regional influence, or rather toward a period of regional balance of power? One place where many questions are being asked is certainly Lebanon. On Monday evening, a U.S. official announced an agreement between the United States, Lebanon, and Israel to establish a ceasefire monitoring mechanism in southern Lebanon under the supervision of CENTCOM, the U.S. Central Command. The official added that the agreement was preceded by a call from Secretary of State Marco Rubio with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Revisiting the Franco-German fighter jet project
By
Jean-Patrick Dayras
Published

Roger Barake's article "Storm Warning in the European Sky" - Levant Time, June 13, 2026 - presents the stated reasons for the abandonment of the FCAS project (Future Combat Air System). This article offers a particular perspective by depicting Franco-German relations as they are perceived by many French people. It sheds specific light on this regrettable abandonment. Here are some illuminating excerpts from the introduction of the aforementioned article: "The program's failure immediately reignited criticism targeting Dassault Aviation and its CEO, Éric Trappier. In certain German and European political circles, the head of the French aircraft manufacturer is portrayed as one of the main figures responsible for the deadlock. His detractors accuse him of having championed an overly nationalistic vision of the program, incompatible with the logic of European cooperation.

The victory speech and the commerce of illusions

A citizen from the South commented on the return of the displaced as follows: "If you return… return in a silence worthy of what has happened, not in a clamor that wounds what little life remains." "Do not raise victory signs over a land whose tears have not yet dried, and do not wave flags where dust still obscures the faces of those not yet pulled from the rubble." "Return… but shed the arrogance of slogans from your shoulders, for this is not a stage for celebration — it is a field of open graves…" If one follows the statements of Naim Kassem, who now appears more than once a week, one would think he had won a victory, defeated Israel, and liberated Lebanon. He therefore feels entitled to accuse the President of the Republic and the Prime Minister of treason and collaboration, and to demand the fall of a government from which he nonetheless refuses to withdraw his own representatives.

Hezbollah-Israel: An Endless War in Whose Interests? (10)

This series of articles aims to shed light on the current situation through the lens of history, setting aside passionate, ideological, or romanticized narratives that miss the mark on reality, and leaving readers to draw their own conclusions. The previous nine installments offered a reexamination of events surrounding Hezbollah's rise to power, from the Taif Agreement through Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon in May 2000, the establishment of a Hezbollah-controlled zone in the South, and the 2006 war. This article addresses the lessons of the 2006 war and its aftermath. In the operation "Truthful Promise" (el-Wa3ed el-Sadek, the name given to the July 2006 war), Hezbollah employed tactics rooted in hybrid asymmetric warfare, skillfully combining traditional guerrilla techniques, the heavy use of cutting-edge dual-purpose anti-tank missiles, and defense in depth across the entire area south of the Litani River and parts of its northern bank.