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The Red Sea and the Horn of Africa: The Shifting Balance of Power in the Middle East (1/6)

Gulf rivalries, African vulnerabilities, and prospects for regional security
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By Khalil Helou
Published Oct 22, 2026 - 14:59
The Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Gulf of Aden and the Horn of Africa form a strategic space contiguous with the rest of the Middle East. Treating them as separate theaters obscures the mechanisms through which a local war, rivalry over ports or a maritime attack simultaneously affects the Arabian Peninsula, East Africa and international trade. Stretching between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean, this corridor links, through the Suez Canal, economies whose interests are interdependent but whose means of protection and political priorities remain profoundly different. Local actors in this space include the states of the Horn of Africa and its surrounding areas—Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Sudan—as well as Yemen on the Arabian shore. They also include authorities and forces without state status, notably the breakaway territory of Somaliland, which claims independence from Somalia; the Houthis in Yemen, who see themselves as the state; the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan; and the armed group Al-Shabaab in Somalia. Regional powers—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Turkey, Israel and Iran—intervene through investment, diplomatic partnerships, and military and security support. Moreover, as coastal states, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are both directly affected and capable of projecting influence beyond their borders.
The New World
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By Khairallah Khairallah - Published Oct 22, 2026 - 14:28
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Campaign rally for Benjamin Netanyahu in Dimona, Israel, on October 21, 2026. (Photo: ILIA YEFIMOVICH / AFP)
The political deadlock gripping the region today, at every level, is the product of years of investment in extremism, violence, and terrorism, in which several actors have converged, from the Israeli right to Iran, including the Islamic Republic’s instruments in the region, notably Hamas and Hezbollah. The former Syrian regime was hardly removed from these forces. It was an honorary member of the Tehran-led “resistance front,” having ensured long years of calm and stability along the front in the Golan Heights, occupied since 1967. Against this backdrop, Israel heads into its general elections with several questions looming, including whether Benjamin Netanyahu will have a political future after the vote. The question is particularly pressing given that the man who has served as prime minister for so many years is already on trial for corruption, proceedings whose consequences could weigh even more heavily on his future if he loses power.
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Sisi Stresses the Defensive Nature of Support for Riyadh

Egypt condemns Turkish-Libyan maritime agreement that threatens its sovereign rights
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By LevantTime . - Published Oct 22, 2026 - 00:02
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Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi stressed on Wednesday that the military support offered to his Saudi ally against Yemen's pro-Iranian Houthis was strictly defensive, saying no attack on Yemen was planned. “The aim is to defend the kingdom's territory and borders, as well as those of any other Arab state, if Egypt is asked to do so,” the president said in a speech, as Tehran issued a warning to Cairo. Any military involvement would mark a break with Egypt's cautious diplomacy, which in recent years has prioritized safeguarding its own national security. But Riyadh, which has also received pledges of defensive support from France and the United Kingdom, has long been a key ally of Cairo.
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USA-Iran: Trump's previous ultimatums (2/2)
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Khalil Helou
Published

The 60-day American-Iranian roadmap must be understood in the context of the ultimatum cycles that define President Donald Trump's Middle East strategy — a method built on alternating between threats of total destruction and purely transactional diplomacy. In April 2025, a first unilateral 60-day ultimatum demanding that Tehran dismantle its nuclear program was met with a categorical refusal from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, triggering massive U.S. B-2 bomber strikes in June 2025 against Iranian nuclear sites. A year later, in April 2026, faced with a strangling blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the White House doubled down, threatening to devastate vital Iranian infrastructure "within four hours" — a credible threat that forced Tehran to accept, at the last moment, the principle of a ceasefire, paving the way for the protocol signed at Versailles by President Trump.

Lebanon-Israel: Rubio seeks to secure a statement of intent

On the third day of the fifth round of Lebanese-Israeli talks in Washington, what were described as difficult discussions between the two Lebanese and Israeli politico-military delegations were expected to yield a statement of intent outlining the framework for more substantive negotiations and future cooperation between Lebanon, Israel, and the United States. The statement of intent was set to be announced and signed by Lebanon and Israel at 11 p.m. Beirut time, but the announcement was delayed as discussions between the two sides continued. According to several consistent sources, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is throwing his full weight behind efforts to bring Lebanon and Israel to sign the statement.

Ecclesial communities, the springtime of the Church (1/2)

At the initiative of the Focolare Movement, the Maronite Archbishop of Antelias, Mgr Antoine Bou Najem, hosted, on May 29, at the Cathedral of the Resurrection (Mtayleb), an evening of prayer and presentations bringing together leaders and members of 35 ecclesial movements, most of which emerged within the Charismatic Renewal following the Second Vatican Council. In this two-part article, we present this event – an unprecedented gathering – and its significance for the Church in general, as well as the “theological status” of these ecclesial movements in relation to the Church hierarchy, as developed in the 1990s by Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, the future Benedict XVI, then Prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith.

Washington Negotiations: A Policy of Small Steps

The second day of the 5th round of direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, held on Wednesday, June 24, at the State Department in Washington, focused on examining the concrete mechanism to be put in place to "manage" the partial — and at this stage symbolic — withdrawal of Israeli forces from certain sectors of the border region. In line with the ongoing discussions on this plan, the Lebanese army will need to progressively replace Israeli units as they gradually withdraw. Sources generally considered well-informed note that this handover will be carried out by Lebanese army units supervised and under the "security" and operational control of the American military command.

USA-Iran: a roadmap under time pressure (1/2)

After 48 chaotic hours marked by threats of breakdown, the first high-level session between the American and Iranian delegations concluded under the joint mediation of Qatar and Pakistan. The protocol signed at Versailles on June 17 had until now appeared to be a fragile ceasefire; it has now been transformed into a genuine diplomatic exercise following the formal endorsement of a 60-day roadmap. This is expected to lead either to a final agreement—along the lines of the arrangements that have shaped the Middle East since 1948—or to a new open crisis. The political and military risks between the two parties remain fully intact, within an extremely compressed timeframe.

Regional Crisis: Diplomatic Efforts Intensify Amid Growing Uncertainty

Diplomatic activity intensified on Tuesday around two issues that have dominated international headlines in recent weeks: the discussions between Washington and Tehran and the direct talks between Lebanon and Israel. The fifth round of Lebanese-Israeli negotiations opened at the Pentagon, but not before President Joseph Aoun issued a firm reminder of the guiding principle that should govern the three-day talks: respect for Lebanese sovereignty. Mr. Aoun, who has repeatedly criticized Iran’s blatant interference in Lebanon’s internal affairs, treated Tehran and Tel Aviv as equally responsible. “We will accept nothing less than an end to the Israeli occupation and to all forms of foreign domination,” he said, in a barely veiled reference to Iran. He expressed hope that the discussions would lead to “the full restoration of Lebanon’s sovereignty over every inch of its territory,” according to a statement released by his office.