Toward Neutralizing Iran’s Houthi Card

For more than 11 consecutive days, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been subjected every night to intensive U.S. strikes and raids targeting Revolutionary Guard positions, military infrastructure, and communication routes across several parts of the country. At the same time, the maritime blockade imposed by the U.S. military on Iranian ports is severely choking an economy that was already in an especially critical condition. To top it all off, the regime itself appears to be beset by deep internal divisions that threaten its very survival.

Faced with such an increasingly entropic situation – one in which it has become mired as a direct result of its own expansionist and hegemonic policies, which recognized no limits – the authorities in Tehran are now seeking to “export” the conflict by extending it across the region, while carefully avoiding Israel. At the same time, they are attempting to exploit to the fullest a card they wield through methods characteristic of militias and organized crime: the threat of paralyzing international shipping lanes, thereby placing a substantial portion of the global economy at risk. This strategy of exporting its own crisis has translated into drone and missile attacks not only against the Gulf states, as has been the case since the conflict began in June 2025, but increasingly against Jordan, Iraq – where Iranian opposition groups have been targeted – and, most recently, Syria.

The latest move by the mullahs’ regime in this campaign has been to reactivate the Houthi card. The Tehran-controlled Yemeni militia has, in recent days, renewed and escalated its threats against Saudi Arabia. It has also claimed to have imposed a maritime blockade on Saudi ports. Tehran’s maneuver is clear: to extend its campaign of blackmail and intimidation to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea in an effort to relieve the U.S. military pressure on Revolutionary Guard infrastructure. Except that Wednesday saw a series of forceful statements likely to neutralize Iran’s Houthi card. President Donald Trump first reiterated Wednesday – as he had during his meeting with President Joseph Aoun – that the United States would not stand idly by if the Houthis were to threaten freedom of navigation in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea.

Echoing that position, Syria and, unsurprisingly, the secretary-general of the Gulf Cooperation Council on Wednesday strongly condemned the Houthis’ threats against Saudi Arabia. But the most significant reaction undoubtedly came from Pakistan, despite its role as the principal mediator between Iran and the United States and, above all, as one of the Islamic Republic’s principal allies, at least to a certain extent. Islamabad sharply denounced the Houthi attacks against the Saudi kingdom, stressing its commitment to Saudi Arabia’s security and sovereignty – a reminder that the two countries are bound by a defense and security pact. The Pakistani government further warned that it would respond forcefully – “if necessary by the use of force,” it specified – to any attack against a Pakistani vessel transiting the waterway in question.

In parallel with the neutralization of Iran’s Houthi card, President Trump raised the stakes on Wednesday in his efforts to ensure freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. He declared unequivocally that, from now on, any Iranian attack – whether by drone, missile, or any other means – against a vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz would prompt the U.S. military to immediately destroy a bridge or power plant inside Iranian territory, including in Tehran or its outskirts.

This stern warning builds on the neutralization of the Houthi card and should, at least in principle, temper the Revolutionary Guards’ belligerent posture regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Even so, Iran’s chief negotiator said Wednesday that “the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to what it was before the war,” confirming the Islamic Republic’s determination to assert control over the waterway and collect transit fees there, despite the categorical rejection of such a move by the United States, the European Union, the Gulf states, and even China.

The steadily mounting tensions point to the possibility of a large-scale U.S. attack against the Iranian regime. Two developments, among others, are indicative of such a course of action: the new British prime minister’s decision to authorize U.S. aircraft to be stationed at British military bases, and the Bulgarian Parliament’s approval on Wednesday evening, by a large majority, of a government request authorizing U.S. combat aircraft to refuel in Bulgaria. Iran had warned the Bulgarian authorities against such a decision.

To conclude this regional chapter, it should be noted that Iraq’s new prime minister, Ali al-Zaidi, is due to visit Tehran shortly. Under the present circumstances, the visit carries particular significance in light of the policies pursued by the current Iraqi government, which has multiplied initiatives and measures aimed at countering Iranian influence in Iraq.

This new direction in Iraqi policy was at the heart of Mr. al-Zaidi’s visit to Washington a few days ago, where he signed a series of economic agreements with U.S. officials. Those agreements were viewed with great suspicion by the Iranian regime, which denounced a strategic shift in Baghdad, one that is moving toward closer ties with the West, at the expense of the Islamic Republic’s influence.

The Lebanese Chapter

The strategic shift aimed at curbing Iranian expansionism is clearly visible as well on the Lebanese chessboard. It has been further consolidated in the wake of President Joseph Aoun’s official visit to Washington at the beginning of the week and his widely covered meeting with President Trump at the White House.

This strategic option, which could be described as sovereigntist and pro-Western, is particularly evident in the beginning of the implementation of the framework agreement signed by Lebanon and Israel on June 26. Under the terms of this U.S.-sponsored agreement, the Israeli army withdrew on Tuesday morning from Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh, where the Lebanese army immediately deployed and began its mission of ensuring that Hezbollah was no longer present in the area. And, in order to underscore the significance of the process initiated by the signing of the Lebanese-Israeli framework agreement, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam sought to lend the process a solemn character by making an unannounced visit to Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh.

The implementation of the Lebanese-Israeli agreement and the prospects for its next phase will be the subject of a new round of talks between the two countries, scheduled to take place on August 4 in Rome, once again under U.S. auspices. Much to the dismay of the Iranian camp...