The Persian Gulf: A Theater of Deception
What a master of suspense Donald Trump is! In the warm waters of the Gulf as in the frozen lands of Greenland, the American president follows the same pattern: he engineers a stunning event, then scoops up the prize under the stunned gaze of the protagonists. One would be wrong to overlook the histrionic side of the man, who seeks to monopolize attention and to be implored before dispensing his favors.
On January 13, he called on Iranian demonstrators to seize control of institutions, assuring them that help was “on the way.” But this promise was nothing more than a damp squib. Three days later, the American president backtracked, seizing upon a hollow pretext: “I greatly respect the fact that all scheduled hangings that were supposed to take place yesterday were canceled by the leaders of Iran. Thank you!”
Indeed, he had won his bet: a trophy added to his hunting board—or to his résumé as a candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize. If he had saved lives through mere threat or bluff, why then put other lives at risk by launching a raid?
A Well-Crafted Scenario
Clever Donald—he really pulled the wool over everyone’s eyes! All the more so as astonished observers continue to believe that he reversed course at the suggestion of his military advisers and under pressure from Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf countries. As if the strategists in the White House had not already weighed the pros and cons of a selective bombing campaign in the land of the ayatollahs.
In reality, the last-minute interventions were nothing but evasive maneuvers Donald Trump used to avoid taking action, with Netanyahu and MBS extending him a lifeline and pulling him out of trouble. Why be surprised, after all? Did this president not himself tell a journalist: “No one convinced me—I convinced myself”?
In truth, with remarkable consistency, Donald Trump has never abandoned the idea that one should never get bogged down in a war. That does not prevent him from pursuing an arms race and making himself feared by all.
Will He Strike or Not?
In short, Donald Trump will resort to brute force only very rarely—unless his troops are directly targeted. Which is not the case here, since the Iranians are not suicidal! And if, during the latest escalation, the White House ordered the evacuation of certain U.S. bases in the Gulf, it was merely for show. Just another ruse, like the order given to the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln to head toward the Persian Gulf. As a U.S. Navy source specified, “while the presence of this aircraft carrier is not indispensable to an offensive action, it nonetheless constitutes a strong signal of deterrence and readiness, addressed to both allies and adversaries.”
The mood is not one of aggression; yet interference at this level could be justified and considered a humanitarian intervention at a time when unarmed civilians are being killed without mercy.
And What About Us Lebanese?
Just as Iranian insurgents could not count on an American strike, we free Lebanese cannot count on the fall of the mullahs’ regime to loosen the grip of Hezbollah on the country. It is up to us to reclaim the lost space of our freedoms.
So let us take inspiration from the heroism of the insurgents of Tehran, Isfahan, and elsewhere—now that fear has changed sides and tongues are loosening.