"The Iranian Empire”: Anatomy of a Fall (1/5)

The year 2025 was a pivotal year in the Middle East, as it shattered a project that had been in gestation since the early 1980s - including the al-Daawa party in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Assad regime in Syria - Michel Seurat had been one of the first to discuss it in his articles. Later, in the 2000s, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen joined this dynamic, which also attempted to establish itself in Bahrain during the Arab Spring of 2011. It was, incidentally, in 2005-2006, after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, the assassination of Rafic Hariri, the July 2006 war, and the gradual subjugation of Fatah by Hamas in Gaza, that the Iranian “Shiite crescent” project truly took shape… before receiving de facto legitimacy in 2015 through the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iranian nuclear, a golden “gift” from Barack Obama that benefited the imperialist ambitions of the mullahs.

For a quarter of a century, Tehran's regional policy has followed a crystal-clear logic: to establish itself on the bottlenecks and corridors of the Middle East, transform straits, land routes, and enclaves into instruments of strategic blackmail, and build around Iran a defensive depth composed of militias, captive regimes, and fragmented states. On one side, the straits: Hormuz to the east, Bab el-Mandeb to the south of the Red Sea, and, on the other, the land corridors: Tehran – Baghdad – Damascus – Beirut. Then a third level, long underestimated: Gaza, an internal pressure point on Israel, but also on Egypt.

Finally, a little-understood tectonics because never sufficiently explained: “the alliance of minorities” that structured the Levant for half a century — and which Israel accommodated as long as it guaranteed a predictable order.

And then… on October 7, 2024, in a suicidal gesture, a certain Yahya Senouar plunged this project into the abyss, taking with him the senior leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas. And, in December 2024, the Iranian Empire awoke to the coup de grâce - the fall of Damascus, with the flight of Bashar al-Assad, abandoned by his soldiers and allies. The collapse of the axis naturally led to the heart of the empire itself being attacked, the Pasdaran high command itself being eradicated by Israel, and the nuclear program being crushed.

A look back at the Iranian imperialist project, now fragmented, but still capable of harm, through a geopolitical approach.

Bab el-Mandeb: the other throat of the world

Scholarly analyses generally begin with the Strait of Hormuz, the access route and easternmost part of the Persian Gulf. Hormuz is indeed a vital strategic point, as it represents an essential commercial route for international traffic, used by more than 30% of global oil trade.

In addition to Oman, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran, the strait controls access to other equally important hydrocarbon-producing countries such as Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar. No fewer than 2,400 oil tankers transit through it each year, carrying approximately 17 million barrels of oil per day. It is therefore a fundamental trade corridor, as the only satisfactory exit route for Saudi, Iranian, and Emirati oil (representing a quarter of the world's crude oil production).

Options for exporting oil bypassing the strait are limited, and these exports can only be in limited quantities. Iran, bordering the strait, can block access to it. It is no coincidence that on June 29, 2008, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mohammad Ali Jafari, stated that if Iran were attacked by Israel or the United States, it would close the strait.

However, the focus on Hormuz somewhat obscures the fact that the system functions in some ways like an hourglass: Hormuz in the northeast, Bab el-Mandeb in the southwest.

Bab el-Mandeb is a strait in the Red Sea connecting it to the Gulf of Aden, and separating Djibouti and Eritrea in Africa from Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula. The strait is also an important strategic choke point and one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world, as it lies on the route through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. It accounts for more than 10% of global maritime traffic, including 75% of European exports; it constitutes an energy corridor between the Gulf, Europe, and Asia, and the point where oil routes, grain flows, and containerized logistics converge.

For trade between Northern Europe and Asia, the alternative is via… the Cape of Good Hope, a detour of 6,500 km!

Therefore, when Bab el-Mandeb closes… Suez ceases to exist.

For Iran, the equation is clear: if there is a second Hormuz, it is indeed Bab el-Mandeb.

Next article: In Yemen, the Houthi gamble