A suicidal political blindness

The leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran, or at least the top brass of the Revolutionary Guard Corps (the Pasdaran), likely did not read, or even try to understand, La Fontaine's fable, "The Frog Who Wished to Be as Big as an Ox," when they were at the height of their power. Had they done so, they would undoubtedly have recognized that they could not compete with powers possessing potential, in every domain, that was light-years away from their actual "divine" capabilities through ideology, empty slogans, fiery speeches, populism, demagoguery, and, above all, terrorism. If they were aware of the realities of this world, they would have been far more realistic in their expansionist and geostrategic ambitions.

From the early 2000s onward, a series of indicators emerged, clearly demonstrating that not only the United States and Israel, but also the entire international community, including Russia and the main countries of the European Union, could not possibly accept that a radical Islamist regime, displaying a belligerent stance, could possess advanced nuclear weapons.

It appears from official documents declassified a few days ago in Washington that, during a meeting he held in Slovenia in June 2001 with the White House chief, George W. Bush, President Vladimir Putin emphasized that he had credible evidence explicitly indicating that the Iranian regime was seeking to acquire nuclear weapons, expressing his grave concerns to the American president. During another meeting held between the two heads of state at the same time at the White House, President Bush emphasized to Putin, in a clear allusion to Iran, that "we don't need religious extremists in possession of a nuclear weapon."

These were the first signs of the emergence of a long diplomatic and media standoff that would pit the Islamic Republic against the international community over the Iranian nuclear program for more than two decades. In 2006, 2007, and 2008, the UN Security Council imposed UN sanctions on Iran (with the approval of Russia and China) because of its suspiciously persistent pursuit of uranium enrichment at a rate that could only lead to the acquisition of the bomb.

Since then, feverish behind-the-scenes discussions, diplomatic maneuvering, and negotiations have continued, making virtually no progress, Tehran's objective clearly being simply to buy time. Even the 2015 agreement brokered by Barack Obama had flaws and made no mention, for example, of Iran's intensive production of ballistic missiles, as demanded by the then French Foreign Minister, Laurent Fabius, who advocated a sufficiently firm stance toward the Islamic Republic. But Barack Obama was "vigilant" in order to counter any attempt to adopt too harsh a position toward the mullahs in Tehran… We know how events unfolded in this regard.

Long before this diplomatic battle waged since the early 2000s, Israel did not hesitate to take action, without getting bogged down in sterile debates, and in June 1981 bombed the nuclear reactor that Iraq was working to build. And in 2007, the Israeli air force carried out a raid in Syria against a nuclear site in the Deir ez-Zor region.

All of these indicators confirmed, day after day, the firm determination of Israel, the United States, European countries, and even Russia to prevent autocratic powers, and in particular a regime as radical as that of the Iranian mullahs, from completing a nuclear program whose military purpose was obvious to everyone. Despite this near-unanimity, the Islamic Republic persisted for over two decades in investing hundreds of billions of dollars in a highly strategic project whose realization was demonstrably chimerical, irrational, and even utterly suicidal given international realities.

To make matters worse, and further its suicidal stance, Iran undertook, through investments of tens of billions of dollars, to establish and maintain militias completely subservient to the Revolutionary Guards in five countries and regions of the Levant (including Gaza). This resulted in an exacerbation of the age-old tension between Sunnis and Shiites, accompanied by the chronic destabilization of this part of the world, solely to satisfy the hegemonic ambitions of the Revolutionary Guard apparatus. All of this...cloaked in anti-American, anti-Western rhetoric and a belligerent attitude toward the Gulf states.

In light of the sheer number of these indicators and considerations that have accumulated over more than twenty years, a troubling question arises: how could leaders who aspired to play a key, even dominant, role in the region have displayed such political blindness, allowing themselves to be convinced that they could extend their reach with impunity, everywhere, disregarding the societal, historical, political, cultural, and geopolitical realities of the Levant region?

The hurricane that is currently striking the capital and numerous Iranian cities is, to a large extent, a consequence of this obstinate desire to forge an outsized power structure, completely out of proportion to the regime's actual capabilities and the extraordinary potential of the adversary the mullahs presumed to confront.