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The spirit and legacy of the Ulama Mohammed Hassan al-Amine, leading authority of Lebanese-centered, statist, and Amelite Shiism, remain more relevant than ever, five years after his passing. Five years ago, on 10 April 2021, the Shia scholar Mohammed Hassan al-Amine died in Sidon of COVID contracted at the age of seventy-five. Lebanon had long been collapsing before his eyes — and it continued inexorably to come apart after him. Perhaps paradoxically magnanimous on this occasion, the Grim Reaper granted this wise and gentle man — as it had, nearly a decade earlier, to his friend Hani Fahs — the opportunity to be spared further suffering in the face of the appalling spectacle of the continuing agony of the Land of the Cedar, and, with it, of the Shia community. No doubt finitude made him a gracious and final bow by removing him from this world before his darkest prophecies began to be fulfilled with such precision. Or perhaps this is simply that ultimate consolation which allows us to survive the disappearance of the fundamental landmarks that had gradually underpinned an entire vision of politics founded on moderation, coexistence and peace.

The first part of this analysis established that neither the United States nor Iran emerged from six weeks of war with a strategic victory. This second part examines what that non-outcome means for the actors who must now live with its consequences: Israel, Lebanon, Türkiye, the Gulf states, and the broader Western alliance. What follows is an overview of the contradictions and dangerous calculations now shaping the region's next chapter. Israel: The Permanent Disruption Doctrine The Israeli prime minister entered the Iran campaign as its chief architect and advocate. He exits it under pressure from both directions simultaneously. On one side are military and political hardliners who wanted to continue operations despite the American ultimatum to stand down, and who believe that the ceasefire, like the Yemen deal before it, has left Israel more exposed, not less. On the other side is a reinvigorated opposition that has always described Netanyahu's strategy of permanent escalation without a political horizon as a formula for endless war rather than lasting safety.

For the first time since February 28, Lebanon experienced a day of calm: no Israeli raids, no exchanges of fire on the southern border, and no fighting in the border villages where the Israeli army maintains a presence. The only exception was the Israeli drone attack that killed one person in Kunin, in southern Lebanon. The focus is now on assessing the casualties—who continue to be recovered from the rubble—and the material damage in the southern suburbs of Beirut, as well as in accessible southern towns, to which displaced people have returned en masse. The ten-day truce between Tel Aviv and Beirut, brokered by US President Donald Trump, appears, at first glance, to be a respite in a war that is far from over, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu noted on Wednesday, since the underlying causes of the armed conflict remain.

A young teenager proudly returns home and announces to his parents that he passed his exam, handing them his paper with a grade of 3/20 written on it. A failing grade, certainly, but for the student, it's a victory! And why not, really? Hezbollah proclaimed its own victory, in a psychologically charged moment, this Friday, April 17th, in a festive atmosphere, where its supporters let their joy erupt, along with the shells of B7s and RPGs; bursts of fire from their tracer-bullet machine guns lit up the sky for more than forty minutes. A veritable sound and light show over the capital, declared a demilitarized zone just a few hours earlier at a conference…

The political and electoral promises of President Donald Trump have evaporated, particularly in the realm of foreign policy, and the glittering headlines about ending wars have come to nothing — he who boasted, upon his election, of bringing “eight wars” to a close — while in return he has ignited two new ones, in Venezuela and Iran, and is now seriously threatening to make Cuba his third. The arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro did unfold without triggering any notable domestic reaction, as the regime abandoned its own leader and adapted with considerable pragmatism to American pressure, but the situation with Iran is an altogether different matter.

This series of articles will allow for a better understanding of the current situation in light of the past, moving beyond impassioned, ideological, or romanticized rhetoric that misses the mark, leaving the reader to draw their own conclusions. Furthermore, it is high time to seriously counter the sterile rhetoric of resistance, not with counter-rhetoric, but with serious work by promoting the rule of law, which can only be established through sovereignty. The first part outlined the international and regional situation that led to the Taif Agreement and the beginning of Hezbollah's rise to power. This second part illustrates how the Hezbollah militia has continued to exist and strengthen itself under the dual sponsorship of Syria and Iran. Damascus's goal is to strengthen its position at the peace negotiation table with Israel, while Tehran's is to undermine any attempt at peace between Israel on the one hand, and Syria and Lebanon on the other.