Articles

«Historic». The word was found in almost all speeches delivered Thursday evening (overnight in Lebanon) in Washington, on the sidelines of the second round of direct talks between Lebanon and Israel, under American patronage. These talks were held this time at the White House and no longer at the State Department, and what's more, in the presence of the American president himself, Donald Trump, which gave a whole new dimension to the event. Lebanon was once again represented by its ambassador Nada Moawad. In addition to Israel's ambassador to Washington, Yechiel Leiter, several American politicians were present: Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, US Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa (of Lebanese origin), US Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee.

In a series of articles, we aim to shed light on the current situation in light of the past, moving beyond impassioned, ideological, or romanticized rhetoric that misses the mark and leaves the reader to draw their own conclusions. In this context, it is high time to seriously counter the sterile rhetoric of resistance, not with counter-rhetoric, but with an in-depth approach that champions the rule of law, which can only be built upon sovereignty. The first two articles presented a reinterpretation of the events surrounding Hezbollah's rise to power, from the Taif Agreement through Operation "Settling of Accounts" and the "July Agreement" (1993), up to the eve of its second war with Israel.

Against a backdrop of more than a million displaced persons and the rubble of over fifty-five Lebanese villages and towns in the South, the "Islamic Republic" held a commemoration in Beirut — Lebanon's capital — to mark the fortieth day of mourning for Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, assassinated by America and Israel on 28 February last. The spectacle of this commemoration betrays an impudence with few equivalents, not least because the Iranian ambassador Mohammad Reza Shibani — declared persona non grata by the Lebanese government — occupied the front row, though he has never once presented his credentials. His continued presence in Beirut is nothing but further proof of the contempt with which Iran regards Lebanon and the Lebanese, a contempt that is, at its root, of Persian character, grounded in a sense of superiority towards everything Arab in the region.

I once followed a long speech by the late Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, in which he recounted in painstaking detail the events of “the day the Prophet’s family women were taken captive.” He was visibly and deeply moved throughout. I remember being genuinely struck by the way this painful episode was summoned as though it had occurred two or three days before, presented in a manner admitting no question of its veracity, as if transmitted by eyewitnesses whose testimony stood beyond all doubt. Images of village women weeping in churches on Good Friday, listening to the chant “Wa habibi” or “I Am the Sorrowful Mother,” came naturally to mind. But those rituals remain anchored in their spiritual dimension, not in the precise time, place, and circumstances of the event itself, unlike the Ashura commemorations and the days associated with them, among which figures “the captivity of the Prophet’s women.”

All attention is focused on Washington, where the second round of direct talks between Lebanon and Israel, at ambassadorial level, is taking place at 11 PM Beirut time, while the conflict between Iran and the United States remains stuck in this grey zone of tensions into which it has slipped. A grey zone that can, however, at any moment tip towards escalation or appeasement, if mediators, particularly Pakistan, manage to find an acceptable agreement formula for both parties. For Lebanon, the stakes are considerably higher and revolve around two short-term and long-term objectives: in the short term, it is about obtaining, in a first phase, an extension of the ceasefire. Subsequently – which will be more complicated as long as Hezbollah is not disarmed – it is about obtaining a halt to Israeli acts of violence in the south of the country where Tel Aviv's soldiers continue to build a buffer zone through destruction, as well as a potential withdrawal of these forces, and the release of Lebanese prisoners held in Israel.

It is a hangover that the Shiite community is experiencing—a real bout of intoxication’s aftermath. The Hezbollah–Amal tandem had elevated it to the height of its power: having penetrated the deep state, this community had entrenched itself there while positioning itself as a regional interlocutor after centuries of marginalization and discrimination. Then, starting in September 2024, the house of cards began to collapse under repeated Israeli blows. And in the end, thousands of families were displaced. Heartbreaking were those lines of cars that, having headed south following the announcement of the April 17 ceasefire, immediately turned back. A human tragedy that has been ongoing for weeks, affecting a confessional group and its members, who are at times stigmatized by their fellow Lebanese citizens.