Shiite Tandem and Monolithic Thinking

It is a hangover that the Shiite community is experiencing—a real bout of intoxication’s aftermath. The Hezbollah–Amal tandem had elevated it to the height of its power: having penetrated the deep state, this community had entrenched itself there while positioning itself as a regional interlocutor after centuries of marginalization and discrimination. Then, starting in September 2024, the house of cards began to collapse under repeated Israeli blows.

And in the end, thousands of families were displaced. Heartbreaking were those lines of cars that, having headed south following the announcement of the April 17 ceasefire, immediately turned back. A human tragedy that has been ongoing for weeks, affecting a confessional group and its members, who are at times stigmatized by their fellow Lebanese citizens.

A bit of history

Nothing predisposed the Twelver Shiites to such a cruel fate—they who were once said to take comfort in quietism. In 1967, the historian Kamal Salibi could write: “Among the Shiites, a long history of persecution and repression has been reflected in the community’s characteristic political timidity and its apparently weak organizational structure.” This picture is largely outdated, and the Lebanese “millet” in question, having risen to the forefront since the 1980s, has been able to claim a prominent place on both the Lebanese and regional political stages.

But beyond the slogans and rhetoric—sometimes fiery, sometimes soothing—of Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, there was a single aspiration, an overriding idea that mobilized all their followers: to create a Shiite entity on the shores of the Mediterranean, as if to reconnect, even symbolically, with the glory of the Fatimid Caliphate of a thousand years ago.

A reckoning with history seemed necessary.

Legitimate ambitions

Who has not heard the average Shiite say to a Christian passerby: “Move aside, give me your place—it is rightfully mine”? Who has not been startled to hear a Hezbollah member or a supporter of Nabih Berri declare: “We will only lay down our arms if we are granted positions traditionally held by Maronites, such as the Presidency of the Republic, the command of the army, and the governorship of the Central Bank”? These desires and ambitions may be legitimate and could materialize under demographic, financial, and military pressure—areas in which the tandem is well endowed. However…

There is, nevertheless, a catch

From its very origins, Greater Lebanon had a reason to exist only as a bastion or refuge for Christians. If they were to lose their power at the head of the state or relinquish their prerogatives to other communities, this country would no longer have a reason to exist as an entity independent of Syria. Suppose that, in a particular configuration, the regime in power in Damascus were to invade and declare an Anschluss—do you think the Christian West would react if its co-religionists no longer played a leading role or had been reduced to insignificance? In such a scenario, events would unfold as they did when Putin annexed Crimea—that is, with little more than verbal condemnation.

Another scenario: if those same Christians were no longer at the helm of Lebanon, and if Syria and Israel decided to divide our country—as Hitler and Stalin did with Poland in 1939—which Western capital would react and intervene to restore the status quo ante?

That said, when will we understand that the prerogatives of Christians within the state are not only guarantees for their own communities, but also—and above all—a shield for the “Lebanese nation,” if such a nation indeed exists?

Why choose the wrong enemy?

It is understood that the Hezbollah–Amal tandem must remain vigilant. But rather than guarding against a regional partner, it is Syria—where atrocities have been committed—that it should be wary of, not its Lebanese fellow citizens, whether Christian, Sunni, or Druze. These are not the people it should be confronting. But how can one speak of reason when hubris has caused a community to lose its sense of proportion, and when it seems to take gratuitous pleasure in making enemies?

Drunk on what are claimed to be divine victories, the Shiite tandem has managed to antagonize not only the Jews of Israel, but also the Sunnis of Syria, the Christians of Lebanon, and the Druze. Who can top that?