Articles

In this first instalment, we examine the military and industrial impact of Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion on Iran’s conventional capabilities. It will be followed next week by a second and final part exploring the conditions that could lead to Iran’s implosion over the medium to long term. The Iranian regime suffered heavy losses during the US-Israeli war fought between February and April 2026. Yet despite the scale of the damage, the collapse of the Islamic Republic did not materialize, and Tehran showed no sign of flexibility in response to U.S. sanctions and the American naval blockade.

A virtuous revolution is underway in the Maronite Church: Bkerké has decided to give the wives of its married priests an identity – the “khouriyates.” They are named Rita, Paulette, Nadia, Nour, Charlotte and Dounia, and all are married to Maronite priests. They are the “khouriyates,” the feminine form of “khoury” (priest), an affectionate designation they have always carried. On May 16, they took part in the first national gathering of priests’ wives in the Maronite Church, which moved to formally recognize them and ensure they are fully integrated into their husbands’ priestly journey. In a message to the assembly, Cardinal Mario Grech underscored the initiative’s dual thrust: fidelity to the Eastern tradition of the Maronite Church, alongside openness to the prominent place and role women must hold in contemporary society.

The tragedy of Yemen derives, in part at least, from the rise to power of a figure such as Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi at a particular juncture in history, and from the errors committed by men of his kind both before and after unification. In the present moment, it has become possible to speak of a country shattered into fragments, searching for some formula by which to reconstitute itself, that is, if reconstitution remains possible at all for a state of considerable strategic significance, a portion of which Iran now holds under its sway. Abd Rabbuh Mansour, whom death claimed just a few days ago, was ultimately nothing more than the expression of a certain political type: the man who arrives from the military apparatus carrying a culture so meager as to disqualify him entirely from governing a country as singularly complex as Yemen. He came to the presidency after spending fourteen years as the shadow of Ali Abdallah Saleh, serving as vice-president, the same Saleh whom the Houthis would later murder, once he had ceased to be head of state.

The fourth round of direct Lebanese-Israeli negotiations convened Tuesday evening at the U.S. State Department in Washington, under American auspices, as tensions remained high in southern Lebanon, where the Israeli army continues its military operations and presses further north of the Litani River. The Lebanese-Israeli talks, in which former Lebanese ambassador Simon Karam is participating on the Lebanese side, are set to resume Wednesday in the American capital. On the military front, Israeli aircraft carried out a series of airstrikes throughout Tuesday and into the evening, targeting positions as well as weapons and ammunition depots in several villages across the districts of Tyre, Bint Jbeil and Nabatiyeh. The cities of Tyre and Nabatiyeh were not spared. By the end of the day, the Israeli army reported the presence of “dozens of Hezbollah militiamen” who had reportedly retreated into Tyre’s Christian quarter.

For long decades, Israel waited for the right moment to liquidate what it considers a threat to its project, whether Palestinian, Lebanese, or linked to the Iranian regional agenda. Beyond military preparation, it worked steadily to arrange the diplomatic and media conditions needed to secure international cover for a major battle whose ambition was to redraw the face of the Middle East. When the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation erupted on October 7, Benjamin Netanyahu's government promoted the discourse of “existential danger”, exploiting the alignment of the major Western powers and above all the United States. That was the historic opportunity Netanyahu had been waiting for to unleash the devastating war machine, not only against Hamas but against anything that could be classified as an ally or supporter.

Israeli statements hinting at a possible challenge to the maritime border agreement with Lebanon have revived questions about the durability of a compromise that, since its signing in 2022, has been portrayed as a stabilizing mechanism between Beirut and Tel Aviv. Despite the devastating war into which Hezbollah drew Lebanon, the agreement has held firm. Yet as the regional landscape undergoes profound change – particularly amid the energy crisis triggered by the Iran-U.S. standoff over the Strait of Hormuz – questions about its long-term survival are resurfacing. For Laury Haytayan, a Middle East hydrocarbons governance expert and MENA director at the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI), “Israeli threats amount more to political pressure than to a genuine strategy aimed at dismantling the agreement.” She considers it “unlikely that the maritime agreement will be revoked,” even as Lebanon is currently engaged in direct peace negotiations with Israel and similar initiatives are expected between Arab states and Israel under the Abraham Accords framework, with the same American backing. Such a move would, moreover, be “incoherent” with the opening of direct negotiations, particularly given Washington’s pivotal role in securing the 2022 agreement, the product of two years of mediation.