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In 2010, Israel violently intercepted the Mavi Marmara, a Turkish ship chartered by a humanitarian NGO to bring aid to the Gaza Strip, which was under Israeli blockade at the time. This was the last straw, and the incident brought the simmering hostility between Erdogan's government and the Jewish state out into the open. (AFP)
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By Youssef Mouawad
Published Sep 5, 2026 - 13:25
The war has not yet ceased in our south, and already it threatens to break out among our neighbors. In other words, we live on borrowed time, lurching from one conflict to the next. And for good reason! The bombing of a Syrian base very nearly escalated into an all-out clash between Ankara and Tel Aviv. That was on August 18, and Benjamin Netanyahu didn't mince his words: his country would not tolerate a Turkish military foothold that could spread into southern Syria. The warning was all the more forceful given that eight strikes had targeted the Abu al-Dhuhur air base, just 70 kilometers from the Turkish border. It's worth recalling, too, that since the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, Erdogan has become the chief mentor of the new Syria under Ahmed al-Sharaa, helping rebuild its armed forces and turning it into a strategic partner. This is no longer Hafez al-Assad's Syria Was it this renewed tension between Ankara and Tel Aviv that prompted a meeting between Syria's top diplomat, Assaad Chaibani, and Mossad chief Roman Gofman, in Jordan on August 23? Yet this quiet parley did not spark outrage across the Arab world the way Anwar al-Sadat's surprise visit to Israel did in 1977. A taboo was officially broken—and indeed, who would have imagined such talks taking place under the Baathist regime? Israel might have been expected to welcome this, but contrary to expectations, it halted neither its airstrikes nor its territorial incursions, as seen on August 27 in Quneitra. The fact is, things have changed. Under Hafez al-Assad, Syria was a regional power that, while not exactly formidable, was feared by its immediate neighbors, Arab or otherwise. No one wanted to pick a fight with it, which allowed it to pursue, within certain limits, an assertive foreign policy that often bordered on provocation. As a result, thanks to the autonomy it exercised and the room to maneuver it granted itself, Syria had become, at least geographically, a buffer zone between an "Erdoganist" Turkey flaunting its unabashed brand of Islam on one side, and Israel, a state Jewish to its core, on the other. But now, in a country worn down by Baathist mismanagement and ravaged by years of civil war, Turkey has begun staking its claims—and will inevitably find itself face to face with an Israel that occupies part of Syrian territory. What can we expect? Given the outsized egos of both Netanyahu and Erdogan, and assuming both leaders remain in power, we should brace for an epic showdown across Syrian, Lebanese, Jordanian, or even other territories. This will be a fight of feints and dodges, of underhanded tactics as well as head-on attacks, close combat, and rising tensions right up to the breaking point. And this despite a September 2025 report from the Congressional Research Service concluding that direct confrontation between Turkey and Israel remains unlikely, precisely because both states are well aware of the cost such a war would entail. Still, in the realm of conflict studies, leaders and other elites don't always act rationally! All the more so since, in the eyes of Israeli observers, the slogan now popular in Anatolia—" Make Turkey great again "—hardly reassures the Zionist state. Washington will find it increasingly difficult to contain or keep apart two adversaries already gearing up for battle. Turkey, the new Iran? Yes, that's one hypothesis, but only in a face-off with Israel, since Syria has overnight become a zone where 'two security perimeters overlap' — the Turkish and the Israeli, the Muslim and the Jewish. And it can't be ruled out that Shiite militancy, that mobilizer of " proxies ," might end up allying itself, even if only temporarily, with a 'Muslim Brotherhood version' of political Islam championed by Ankara! So we would have, against all odds, a Hezbollah backed by its former enemy, Ahmad al-Sharaa, an Islamist who emerged from Jabhat al-Nusra and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham! Against a common adversary, a reversal of alliances is always legitimate and opportune. But this would only be a tactical alliance, dictated by the exigencies of the moment, one that couldn't presume anything about the future. With Arab nationalism now out of the picture, Turkey won't settle for economically capturing the Syrian market of 25 million consumers: it will want to wield political influence in Damascus, and to that end will deploy its military and security apparatus. Since the shaky power of the Syrian president can't fulfill certain sovereign functions or oversee the various branches of the state, it will inevitably turn to the expertise of its northern neighbor. Does this mean Turkey will get sucked into the spiral of 'announced belligerence'? Everything points that way, and we can already see the early signs of a spiral reminiscent of the US involvement in Vietnam under Lyndon Johnson. Indeed, if the Syrian state intends to rebuild itself, it will first need an army capable of quelling the centrifugal tendencies of the Alawites, the Druze, and other factions calling for the country's breakup. And it's up to Ankara to provide that and to bolster the central authority based in Damascus. But Israel, which has gotten into bad habits in Syria and intends to keep its freedom of aerial action there, cannot tolerate an army built along NATO lines that could serve as a proxy for a neo-Ottoman venture. And Lebanon, from primary stage to secondary stage? A new stage is now set for a new script that will define new rules of the game! What will become of Hezbollah, caught in a trap? Well, in that scenario, it could benefit, even if only partly, from Damascus's logistical support — support it has sorely lacked since the fall of Bashar al-Assad. And perhaps, through a shift in the tectonic plates, Lebanon would move from being the initial stage to being merely a secondary stage of a regional conflict. But frankly, that would do us a lot of good!
Today's Essential
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By LevantTime . - Published Sep 5, 2026 - 00:55
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The ICRC convoy carrying the released civilians left the area occupied by Israel in southern Lebanon and traveled to the point marking the start of the zone controlled by the Lebanese authorities. (AFP)
The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) announced on Friday that it had transferred four more people released by Israel to Lebanon, a day after the release of a first civilian. They are three Lebanese nationals and two Syrians, according to the ICRC. This is the first time such an operation has taken place since negotiations between Lebanon and Israel began in April under US auspices. During the last round of talks in August, Beirut had requested the release of a first group of its nationals captured by Israel in southern Lebanon, where Israel is at war with the pro-Iranian Hezbollah. Their relatives estimate their number at around thirty, including fighters from the Islamist movement. In a statement, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun thanked the United States and the ICRC, saying the release "confirmed the soundness of the position" taken by Lebanon, which is engaged in negotiations with Israel that Hezbollah rejects. On Thursday, the United States praised "the government of Israel and the government of Lebanon for demonstrating good faith through these initial steps," expressing hope that this would "serve as a foundation for broader discussions on other civilian matters." The two countries are set to hold another round of negotiations in September, though the date has not yet been set. According to the Israeli prime minister's office, Thursday's announcement "follows efforts by Israel and Lebanon to locate and repatriate the remains of Jewish community leaders who were kidnapped and killed in Lebanon" between 1984 and 1986. Israeli strikes intensify On the ground, Israeli strikes killed three people and wounded 23 others on Friday in southern and eastern Lebanon. Israel stepped up its strikes in the region on Friday, after announcing Thursday evening that it had taken control of the Ali Taher mountain ridge, which had served as a strategic position for the pro-Iranian Hezbollah and overlooks Nabatiyeh, among other areas. The army will now reinforce its positions there in order to "prevent the enemy from retaking the area," said Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz. A strike also hit the Tyre region, particularly the village of Rmadiyé, according to the National News Agency (NNA). For Trump, the war in Iran is "small potatoes" Regarding the war in Iran, US President Donald Trump sought on Friday to downplay its impact on the United States ahead of the crucial midterm elections. "A lot of people aren't calling it a war. I call it a military conflict, because it's small potatoes for us. It's not a big deal. We did Venezuela, and we did that," he told reporters in the Oval Office when asked about his vice president, JD Vance, who had said the day before that he didn't want to call the conflict a war. With fuel prices surging because of the war and threatening to cost Donald Trump's Republicans their majority in Congress in November's midterm elections, his administration is working to downplay the scale of the conflict. According to the president, the United States is carrying out "targeted strikes," insisting that it is "not currently engaged in fighting." He also claimed that the United States controlled the Strait of Hormuz and had wiped out Iran's armed forces. "What we've accomplished is remarkable. We took control of Venezuela, and we've essentially taken control of Iran," he said.
Homage
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By Michel Hajji Georgiou - Published Sep 4, 2026 - 23:28
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What remains of Hassan Rifai is the image of a respected, composed jurist, an authority on administrative and constitutional law, arguing in a calm, quavering voice as he pointed out the deviations and failings of politicians in relation to the parliamentary democratic system and the Constitution. And yet, the former MP and minister, who died on September 3, 2025, was also a man in revolt. A dissenter. Even at one hundred. Especially at one hundred! He had been one as a child, haranguing crowds in Baalbeck against the Mandate, and remained one throughout his career as a lawyer and parliamentarian. At one hundred, utterly disillusioned with the Republic and its buccaneers, his quiet anger had not subsided. “Lebanon is an impossible country!” he told the author of these lines in an interview conducted a few years before his death and never published. But make no mistake. Hassan Rifai was neither a nihilist nor someone who rejected everything outright. He had fought all his life for a certain idea of Lebanon. More specifically, for Greater Lebanon, united and plural. And he appreciated the Lebanese experience for what it was worth, including all that was positive in it. But human beings had disappointed him. And yet it was precisely the human being he was seeking. He never found that person on the Lebanese public stage. At least not in the service of the Republic. Rifai was a man of law, always elegant, irreproachable, everything one would expect of a man of his moral and intellectual stature. But he was also uncompromising. Merciless, even. No doubt his attachment to his country and its democratic system had led him to acknowledge only one loyalty: a certain code of values and a certain idea of the Republic. That was why he was critical of every mistake and every abuse, beginning with those committed by his own political friends. He spared no one. Neither communities nor clans, neither religious leaders, he was secular himself, and certainly not political officials. No one escaped his scrutiny, and Rifai took a certain pleasure in dismantling the myths and received ideas that portrayed this or that president of the Republic or prime minister as an exceptional leader. His yardstick was objective: the consistency of actions with democratic principles. As a result, no one truly found favor in his eyes. The conclusion was devastating: none of the country’s leaders, throughout its history, had genuinely respected Lebanese parliamentary democracy. None. That did not mean he placed everyone on the same footing. He had enough critical distance to recognize the qualities and shortcomings of each. He liked to quote Léon Duguit: “Constitutional law has no safeguard other than the good faith of those who apply it.” He had almost made it his republican credo. And his verdict was merciless: that good faith, quite simply, he had not found. Too many politicians, and not enough statesmen. And above all, a great deal of lying and hypocrisy. One day, a senior political figure advised him: “Do not build roads for people. Otherwise they will stop coming to you.” Despite the respect he had for this political ally, the remark left him bewildered and shocked. It contained an entire conception of power: never permanently solve the problem of those one claims to represent, because once their need disappears, so does the very reason for their dependence. The project of the state was thus postponed indefinitely. Or, at the very least, whenever good people did exist, the system prevented them from reaching positions of responsibility. Rifai was a rebel, yes, but one armed with the rigor and precision of a master craftsman of administrative and constitutional law. That was undoubtedly what set him apart within Lebanon’s political milieu. He was rebellious enough, in any event, to pay a price for it. In August 1982, he survived an assassination attempt after opposing the Israeli diktat. At Taif in 1989, he was almost cast out for having immediately discerned the existing flaws and the traps added to the constitutional reforms. From 1992 onward, under the Syrian occupation, he endured political ostracism for opposing the security apparatus underpinning Syrian tutelage and Rafic Hariri’s policies. But he was fair. He could oppose political confessionalism while acknowledging that abolishing it at the present stage would be disastrous for Lebanon, and that a system of majority rule based purely on numbers would once and for all toll the death knell of the Lebanese formula and of the Christian presence in Lebanon. He could agree that Christians had been wronged by the constitutional reforms of Taif, Sunnis too, he maintained, while at the same time recalling the excesses committed in the exercise of power by presidents of the Republic between 1943 and 1990, and warning against a nostalgic return to those practices under the refrain of “Christian rights.” A drift toward a presidential or semi-presidential system would, in his view, endanger Christians. The importance of the parliamentary system inherited from the French Third Republic lay precisely in the fact that the president of the Republic was not politically accountable to the Chamber of Deputies. That placed him, according to Rifai, in a privileged position. Above the fray, he could steer the ship of the Republic safely into port without becoming bogged down in struggles for power. That moral responsibility to preserve the Constitution and the Republic was, in his eyes, far more important than any political responsibility. But the principal parties concerned still had to be persuaded of that. Rifai could recognize the importance of administrative decentralization while refusing to allow that demand to become an ideological slogan concealing separatist ambitions. In this regard, he recalled that Beirut and Mount Lebanon had been favored in the construction of Greater Lebanon, while the peripheral regions, particularly his own, Baalbeck, had been neglected. That had contributed to weakening Lebanese national sentiment, which ultimately depended on well-being grounded in respect for human dignity. Commitment to citizenship presupposed that everyone be treated equally in terms of development. Without equality among citizens, sovereignty could only falter. That, indeed, was the meaning of his first speech in Parliament in 1968. The events that followed gave that warning a singular gravity. Economic, social and territorial imbalances contributed to fueling the demands of the left and of part of the Muslim street in a country already strained by sectarian tensions, foreign interference and the growing power of armed organizations. They thus contributed to the gradual weakening of the state, before the war, successive occupations and the emergence of para-state structures. Ultimately, Hassan Rifai embodies something of that Lebanese model of the cosmopolitan, complex personality who stands outside communal and partisan trenches, enjoys almost unanimous respect, especially beyond political circles, yet is consulted within those same circles only when needed and for self-interested reasons. Lebanon does not like minds that are too independent and too unruly, even if its system still contains cracks through which such people can exist and make themselves heard. They are tolerated, but they must remain on the margins. The survival of the state of zaamat and the state of jamaat depends on it: a system that invariably prefers turning to foreign patrons rather than to people capable of generating, proposing and implementing solutions from within. Lebanon’s political system and its protagonists detest the notion of responsibility, which they find profoundly anxiety-inducing, and prefer dependence or, worse still, servility. Yet Rifai repeatedly said, once again quoting Léon Duguit: “Where responsibility lies, there lies power.” Should it then come as any surprise that in Lebanon, where responsibility is nowhere to be found, power is nowhere to be found either? Or, more precisely, that it is always elsewhere?
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The new factors of American and Israeli power

It is a grave mistake to approach American and Israeli expansionism through the same lens, despite the apparent convergence of their projects at pivotal regional moments. Conflating them not only obscures the fundamental structural differences but also misleads us into understanding the nature of today's conflicts and the forms of control now exercised in the name of security, deterrence, or “stability.” Expansion, as a political-strategic concept, is not singular in its motives or tools, even when it leads to similar outcomes. What unites the United States and Israel today is not a unified project, but rather an overlap of interests and a shared set of tools, at a transitional moment in which the meaning of control and influence is being redefined. First: American Expansion… An Empire Without Maps Historically, American expansionism has not been geographical expansion in the classical sense of ancient empires or European colonialism. Since World War II, the United States has built its global influence on a different foundation: economic and commercial dominance as the core of power, and military force as a tool to protect this influence, not as an end in itself. Washington is not seeking territory to annex, nor flags to raise over the map. What it wants is: • Opening markets and integrating them into the American economy, • Protecting supply and energy routes, • Imposing the rules of the global financial system, • And controlling supply chains and technology. In this sense, American expansion is an expansion of economic space, not of maps. A country may be politically “independent,” but it is economically subservient, tied to the dollar, or dependent on international financial institutions, or reliant on the American market. Here, control is achieved without occupation, and influence without direct administration. Even American military intervention, when it occurs, is often presented as a means of ensuring this system: protecting allies, preventing market collapses, securing maritime routes, or containing forces that threaten global economic balances. Therefore, in recent years, Washington has tended to reduce direct military involvement without relinquishing influence, in a clear shift from “hard warfare” to “smart conflict management.” Second: Israeli Expansion… Land as Identity, Not as a Tool In contrast, the Israeli project is based on a radically different logic. Israeli expansion is ideological and historical, where land constitutes the core of the Zionist project, not merely a means. From the “Promised Land” to the doctrine of fluid borders, geography has remained an element of identity and survival, not simply a sphere of influence. In this context, expansion cannot be separated from Israel’s founding narrative, in which land is presented as: • a historical right, • a security guarantee, • a condition for the state’s existence and continuity. However, this logic, despite its ideological entrenchment, has clashed with political, demographic, and security realities that have made direct occupation more of a burden than an asset. Prolonged ground control has become costly on multiple levels: • Constant resistance drains the army, • Demographic burdens threaten the "Jewish character of the state," • Increasing international pressure deepens political isolation. Therefore, the Israeli project has not abandoned expansion, but rather redefined it. Third: From Occupation to Control… Expansion in its New Form In the current Israeli transformation, expansion is no longer synonymous with annexing or directly administering land. Today, expansion means controlling land without occupying it—that is, keeping it within the sphere of control, not within the state's borders. Here, air superiority and technological dominance emerge as modern tools of expansion. The skies have become the substitute for the land, and technology has replaced direct civil and military administration. This model is based on clear elements: • Open skies with no effective deterrent, • Intelligence and technological superiority that allows for constant surveillance, • The ability to strike whenever and wherever it chooses, • Imposing a diminished sense of sovereignty on adversaries. In this model, the land may not be officially occupied, but in practice, it lacks full sovereignty. Security decisions, freedom of movement, and even daily stability remain contingent on the will of the dominant power in the air. Fourth: Unity of tools… not unity of project Here, the American and Israeli logics converge, at least temporarily, not because the projects are identical, but because the tools of modern control have become shared. The United States, which manages its expansion through economics and markets, finds in this Israeli model a means of controlling the region without direct involvement. Washington does not object to Israeli air superiority as long as it: • Prevents a major regional conflagration, • Contains adversaries within certain limits, • Does not drag the United States into a full-scale war. Conversely, Israel benefits from this American cover to entrench its model of remote control, maintaining its deterrent capability without bearing the burdens of direct occupation. However, this convergence remains a convergence of interests, not a merging of projects. When American economic calculations clash with Israeli ideological impulses, the differences become clearly apparent, as seen in the limits of war, the timing of escalation, and the management of major crises. Fifth: Lebanon as a Model… Sovereignty Under the Sky This transformation is most clearly evident in the Lebanese case. Lebanon today is not an occupied state in the classical sense, but it is also not a fully sovereign state. The daily violations of its airspace and Israel's ability to conduct aerial and intelligence operations without real obstacles place the country at the heart of the new expansionist model. Here, there is no need to occupy the land: • The skies are sufficient, • Technology is sufficient, • And the distorted deterrence equation is sufficient to impose political and security realities. This is expansion in its contemporary form: no tanks on the borders, but control above them. No flags raised, only a sovereign decision suspended. Control at minimal cost… the most dangerous form of expansion. Ultimately, regional transformations cannot be understood without recognizing that expansion is no longer what it once was. That's it. Land is no longer a prerequisite for control, and occupation is no longer the sole form of domination. We are facing a phase where conflicts are managed with less blatant tools, but with deeper and more impactful ones. The United States manages its expansion through economics and trade, and Israel manages its expansion through air power and technology, but the shared objective is the same: control at the lowest cost and with the greatest influence. Herein lies the danger of the coming phase, because this type of expansion is less overt, more difficult to confront, and more capable of persisting… without being called by its true name.

The Yemeni Theater Reveals a Rise in Tensions Between Gulf Allies

Devastated by nearly a decade of civil war opposing the internationally recognized government to Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, Yemen is now facing a new fault line. A confrontation with southern separatists has upset the balance of the conflict and pitted two long-standing regional allies against each other: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Tensions escalated in early December when the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist movement supported by the United Arab Emirates but officially a member of the anti-Houthi coalition, seized vast territories in eastern Yemen, gaining control of the Hadramout province and a large part of the neighboring Mahra province. On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia carried out an airstrike targeting the port of Mukalla in the east of the country. Riyadh publicly accused Abu Dhabi of adopting "extremely dangerous" behavior by supporting the separatists, stating that its national security constituted "a red line." Emirati forces subsequently withdrew from Yemen following a Saudi ultimatum. The STC aims to re-establish an independent state in southern Yemen, a region that formed the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen between 1967 and 1990, before its unification with the North. Hadramout, the country's largest province, covering nearly a third of the national territory, concentrates most of Yemen's oil fields, a key resource for public finances. The STC's advance allowed the movement to reach the Saudi border, in a region of historical and symbolic importance, from which several influential Saudi families originate. The Bin Ladens, Bakhachab, Al-Jafali, Al-Amoudi, and Al-Zamel all have "Hadrami" origins and own eponymous companies that play a major role in the Saudi economy. Damaged military vehicles, reportedly sent by the United Arab Emirates to support the separatist forces of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), following an airstrike carried out by the Saudi-led coalition in the port of Mukalla, southern Yemen, on December 30, 2025. (AFP Photo) While Riyadh states it prefers a stable and non-hostile Yemen on its southern border, Abu Dhabi's actions are part of a broader regional strategy. The United Arab Emirates seeks to strengthen its influence in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, relying on a network of allies in southern Yemen. Furthermore, for the past decade, Abu Dhabi has pursued an active foreign policy in the Middle East and Africa, particularly to counter movements linked to the Muslim Brotherhood, which are considered by Emirati authorities to be a threat to regional stability. The United Arab Emirates has notably become Egypt's main financial backer since the overthrow of Islamist President Mohamed Morsi in 2013. In Sudan, their support for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), engaged in a war against the regular army, is an open secret. In Libya, Abu Dhabi supports Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who opposes the internationally recognized Government of National Accord. In 2020, the United Arab Emirates normalized its relations with Israel as part of the Abraham Accords, an initiative that Saudi Arabia refuses to join as long as there are no prospects for the creation of a Palestinian state. This normalization is part of a strategic convergence in the face of common adversaries, notably Iran and certain Islamist groups. Abu Dhabi has also strengthened its economic and security ties with Somaliland, a self-proclaimed independent territory of Somalia. The Dubai Ports World group has invested 442 million dollars in the port of Berbera, located on the Gulf of Aden. Last week, Israel became the first state to officially recognize Somaliland's independence, a decision that the Axios website attributes, citing Israeli officials, to mediation by the United Arab Emirates…

“Trump Economic Zone”: dream of peace and fear of conspiracy

The proposal to create an economic zone in South Lebanon, mentioned in August 2025 by US envoy Tom Barrack, created a shockwave. The theory behind the project of a “Trump Economic Zone” assumes that such a zone would attract foreign investment, finance reconstruction, thus guaranteeing lasting security. However, several voices have been raised to warn against the danger of undermining the sovereignty of the Lebanese state through the creation of an Israeli-American “protectorate” in the border area. The project of a “Trump Economic Zone” is part of an approach adopted by the current US president to resolve conflicts through economic development and trade. This approach is one of the foundations of liberal thought in international relations. Indeed, the theory of “sweet commerce” is based on the idea that economic exchanges between states constitute a factor of political stability and peace. By forging lasting commercial ties, countries become interdependent, which reduces the incentive to resort to war. This theory was popularized in the 18th century by Montesquieu, “Commerce softens and polishes barbaric customs,” he wrote, emphasizing that economic exchanges transform power relations into cooperative relations. Trump proposed this idea for Gaza, through “Trump Riviera”, as well as in Ukraine, through the transformation of Donbass into a free zone that would benefit Russians as much as Ukrainians. Conditional logic According to Phillip Smyth, an American expert on the Middle East who worked at the Washington Institute and the Atlantic Council, the economic zone goes beyond the simple political framework and is based on an assumed conditional logic. Smyth emphasizes that its implementation requires a high level of organization, planning, and coordination on the ground, essential conditions to reduce risks and attract credible investors. For him, this requirement constitutes a factor of seriousness and viability and not a brake on development. Barrack indicated in August 2025 that Saudi Arabia and Qatar are ready to invest several billion dollars in the economic zone, a statement that was not commented on by those concerned. One thing is certain: these investments remain conditional on certain security guarantees, particularly the disarmament of Hezbollah. Some sources even mention potential investments of up to 10 billion dollars for infrastructure, industrial zones, and job-creating projects. However, these amounts remain to be confirmed by official commitments. According to Smyth, figures do not exist so far. These indications show a real interest in supporting the economic development of southern Lebanon and offering employment opportunities to local populations. Break with the logic of ad hoc aid Southern Lebanon, with a limited formal economic base, could benefit from significant multiplier effects: job creation, infrastructure development, stimulation of trade, and reduced dependence on external aid. The economic zone could thus initiate a dynamic of sustainable reconstruction and progressively restore economic confidence in this fragile region, Smyth affirms. It aims to transform a region long marked by armed conflicts into a structured space, capable of attracting regional and international capital. This initiative seeks to break with the logic of ad hoc aid to favor reconstruction based on long-term investments. The objective of this zone is to further integrate southern Lebanon into regional economic dynamics and to reduce the grip of political logics that have long dominated the local agenda. For Lebanon, the stakes are clear: seize this opportunity to undertake structured and sustainable reconstruction, or let internal blockages, accentuated by Hezbollah's opposition, deprive the south of the country of a development perspective likely, in the long term, to reshape its economic and security future. A state of economic destitution The depth of the Lebanese crisis gives a particular resonance to this project. Since 2019, Lebanon's GDP has contracted by approximately 40%, according to the World Bank. This fall is in addition to a depreciation of the Lebanese pound of more than 98% against the dollar, leading to hyperinflation and a massive loss of purchasing power. In 2022, 44% of the population lived below the poverty line, or nearly 2.6 million people out of a population of approximately 5.8 million. Overall unemployment was estimated at 11.5%, but it exceeds 23.6% among young people aged 15 to 24, particularly affecting the south of the country. This accumulation of financial losses, destruction of infrastructure, and withdrawal of public investment has severely hit this region, highlighting the urgency of structural economic prospects. Political test According to Smyth, Hezbollah's opposition could prevent the project from materializing. This blockage directly affects the region's economic attractiveness by increasing the cost of risk for potential investors. The zone is supposed to modify this equation, by introducing concrete economic interests capable of transforming stability into a shared advantage rather than an externally imposed constraint. The absence of a clearly affirmed Lebanese mandate is both a structural weakness and a revealing sign of the state's limits. Smyth notes that the project acts as a political test for the Lebanese authorities. More active state involvement could transform this external initiative into a national project, strengthen economic governance, and reassert institutional authority in a region largely dominated by parallel logics. Hezbollah's opposition therefore remains the main obstacle. Its armed presence and political weight make it difficult to secure the zone and deter foreign investment. The condition set by Gulf investors — reducing Hezbollah's military influence — underlines how much the project's success will depend on the evolution of the local balance of power and the pro-Iranian militia's willingness to adapt to an economic dynamic that could, in the long term, reduce its influence over the south of the country. Fears On the other side of the border, Israel benefits from the creation of this zone. By transforming the border region into an economic hub, the project could reduce tensions and Hezbollah's military presence and create opportunities for indirect cooperation. Even if the ceasefire monitoring mechanism committee has not yet thoroughly examined the project, these initial consultations suggest that the economic approach could open new channels of dialogue between Beirut and Tel Aviv. Several critical voices point to Israel's supposed desire to establish a security buffer zone, demilitarized and emptied of its inhabitants, on a model comparable to what it would seek to implement along its Syrian and Palestinian borders. Unconfirmed official information thus evokes the creation of large secure perimeters. In Lebanon, these prospects fuel fears of indirect demographic transfer, in which local populations would be progressively displaced in favor of externally managed economic activity. According to these same sources, the central concern lies in the risk that this mechanism would institutionalize lasting forced displacement, as the exodus continues since October 2023, in the absence of any clearly defined strategy for the return of displaced persons and the reconstruction of destroyed villages. For the moment, Trump's project is reduced to a simple declaration, official certainly, but vague and temporary. The importance given to Barrack's statements reflects the country's economic distress and, by the same token, evokes the traditional Lebanese expectation of aid from abroad.

Freedoms: The Soul of the Republic
By
Michel Hajji Georgiou
Published

Probably the most overused concept in Lebanon, freedom is nevertheless neither a luxury nor a slogan. It is our very condition of possibility—the discreet breath that has allowed this improbable country to stand upright between sea and mountains, between languages, rites, memories, and wounds. Without it, only a fractured territory of armed tribes remains. With it, Lebanon becomes a space—fragile, conflict-ridden, yet alive—where an attempt is still made to allow worlds that elsewhere turn their backs on one another to coexist. Today, that freedom is under threat. Everywhere. On one side, it is undermined by real or self-proclaimed “minorities” who, in the name of legitimate recognition, slide toward the outright negation of the other—toward cancel culture, the policing of words, works, and nuance. Emancipation then turns into a permanent tribunal, debate into an inquisition, criticism into blasphemy. On the other side, freedom is besieged by populisms, fundamentalisms, and authoritarian nationalisms bearing names such as Trump, Putin, Orbán, and their local avatars—cardboard strongmen who promise order and deliver only fear. The malady of our time is not merely the “rise of fascisms” and other self-loving “isms” so often denounced by Pope Francis, nor simply the “decline of morals.” It is dogmatism in all its forms. It is the claim by every camp to embody Truth, to seize the center, and to expel from political humanity all that does not resemble itself. Here, in the name of God, censorship, bans, and threats prevail. There, in the name of Progress, people are erased, “deplatformed,” reduced entirely to a single misstep. In both cases, the same gesture is at work: closing the shared space, banishing doubt, forbidding fruitful disagreement. Girardian mimicry in all its splendor—and decay. Lebanon is not immune to this plague; it is, in fact, a laboratory for it. We have known the Second Bureau, militias, Israeli and Syrian occupations, Iran’s long shadow, visible and invisible tutelage. We know all too well the security reflexes, the summons over a post, a joke, an opinion. We know what it means when a military tribunal claims the right to judge civilians, when security services raid a professor’s home as they would a criminal’s, when censors decide for everyone what may be seen, read, or heard. And yet none of these police regimes—not even the sprawling system of Syrian-Iranian tutelage—has ever fully taken root. Because this country, by its very composition, resists tyranny. It may endure it, adapt to it temporarily, negotiate with it out of fatigue or fear; but it always ends up cracking it, bypassing it, mocking it. Lebanon’s heterogeneity—religious, cultural, social—never allows itself to be fully enclosed within a single apparatus of domination. This is our curse, but also our chance. Contrary to the recurring fantasy of popular discourse—“we need an Atatürk or a Nasser to impose secularism,” “an MBS to fight corruption,” “an Assad to crush Islamism,” “a Sharaa to discipline minorities,” “a Bachir to secure a Christian reconquest,” “a general to put everyone in line”—Lebanon will never be saved by a strongman. Past experience has shown what our “strong presidents” and charismatic leaders produce: suspension of the Constitution, abolition of accountability, personality cults, and then total collapse—moral, institutional, urban. Lebanon’s problem is not the absence of leaders. It is the absence of citizens. For too long, we have confused political legitimacy with the cult of the za‘im, the sect, the flag. To borrow Weber’s terms, we have remained stuck between the traditional legitimacy of tribes and communities, and the charismatic legitimacy of “saviors”—pseudo-saints, generals, or warlords. We never completed the transition toward the only legitimacy that emancipates: rational-legal legitimacy, that of the state, the law, institutions, and shared responsibility. Freedom, however, is not an extra layer added once order has been restored. It is the starting point. It is ontological: it constitutes the person prior to any affiliation. This is what Spinoza expressed through the desire to persevere in one’s being; what Michel Chiha affirmed when he made the person and property the pillars of a Lebanon open to the world; what Benedict XVI recalled in Baabda when he insisted that human dignity presupposes free choices, “not under the effect of purely external constraint.” It is what Mohammad Mahdi Chamseddine, Samir Kassir, Gebran Tuéni, Ghassan Tuéni, Hani Fahs, Samir Frangié, Nasrallah Sfeir, Hassan Rifa‘i, and so many others repeated daily until their last breath. Without this primary freedom, there is no citizenship, no responsibility, no justice—only pack reflexes, primitive hordes, dogs and wolves. This is why censorship in Lebanon is more than an abuse: it is a betrayal of our vocation. Every time a group vetoes a concert, a film, a play, an article; every time a church, a party, or a militia brandishes the threat of the street to bend the state; every time an intelligence service summons a citizen over a word, a drawing, a sarcastic remark—another piece of the Lebanese soul is amputated. Fear is cultivated, self-censorship is produced, violence is prepared. Little by little, the very possibility of becoming a people of citizens is destroyed. The soul, the essential singularity of this country, is eroded. The choice before us, a century after the birth of Greater Lebanon, is simple, brutal, and irreducible: either we continue to dream of a Leviathan that will settle our disputes at the price of our freedoms, or we finally accept the risk of democracy. That risk is not anarchy. It is the demanding learning process of pluralism, separation of powers, oversight of security apparatuses, and the imposition of limits on every form of the sacred—religious or identitarian—whenever it seeks to become a censor. It is respect for the Constitution and the norms of jus cogens that frame it. Once again, Lebanon does not need a new enlightened despot. It needs men and women of state willing to burn themselves out in service rather than exploit office; judges who protect freedom as a norm, not as a tolerated exception; armed forces that see themselves as the last bastion of the Constitution, not as the armed wing of a regime or a clan. Above all, it needs citizens freed from voluntary servitude—refusing to delegate their thinking to a leader, a sect, or a foreign power. This requires overcoming fear of the other and trusting one another to build a shared future founded on a culture of connection. Memory and the past matter, but they cannot remain frozen; they move forward, and their role is to evolve, not to regress. In a world where walls are rising again, where algorithms lock each individual into a mental enclosure, where extremes feed off one another until moderates are crushed, Lebanon could still offer something other than ruins. It could become once more what it should never have ceased to be: a space for experimenting with freedom, a laboratory of coexistence, a risky wager on humanity’s capacity to extend a hand without denying itself. This is not a utopia—it is a daily act of will and life. But this wager will not be won through incantation. It requires concrete choices: abolishing prior censorship; removing all civilian cases from military courts; placing security services under genuine civilian oversight; educating, from school onward, in pluralism, doubt, and responsibility; protecting freedom of expression to the point of scandal—especially when it unsettles our religious, political, or moral certainties. Killing within ourselves servility and the cult of the leader. No one is perfect. No one is above criticism. Everyone is fallible, from cassock to camouflage. Freedom is not an intellectual whim. It is our last frontier before chaos. If Lebanon renounces what makes it singular—this impossible blend of pluralism and freedom—it will have nothing left to oppose the empires surrounding it or the dogmas inhabiting it. It will become just another parcel on the map of domination: trapped in the past like mosquitoes frozen in Jurassic amber, or the inhabitants petrified in the lava of Pompeii—remnants of history, dead yet still tangible, before dust eventually carries them away. Taking freedom seriously again means restoring a soul to the Republic—and perhaps giving our shared history a chance. That, ultimately, is our salvation—our true redemption.

An Israel–Greece–Cyprus Front Against Turkish Influence

The signing of a trilateral military cooperation plan between Israel, Greece, and Cyprus for 2026 marks a significant step in consolidating a security axis in the Eastern Mediterranean. Officially, the agreement, disclosed last Sunday by the Israeli army, provides for reinforced joint exercises, cross-training, and strategic military dialogue. But beyond its technical framework, it is part of a broader logic of collective deterrence, in a context of Turkey's rising military, diplomatic, and maritime power, particularly around exclusive economic zones, energy routes, and disputed airspaces. The project, discussed for several months, to establish a rapid reaction force - non-permanent but quickly deployable on land, at sea, and in the air - illustrates a major doctrinal evolution. It is no longer just about punctual or bilateral cooperations, but rather the progressive construction of a credible multinational operational capability. In a region marked by the war in Gaza, Syrian instability, persistent tensions in Lebanon, and competition over gas resources, this approach aims as much to prevent crises as to respond to them. Israeli Air Superiority In recent years, Turkey's actions have contributed to strengthening the shared sense of threat felt by Athens, Nicosia, and Tel Aviv: Repeated violations of airspace in the Aegean Sea, naval maneuvers in the Mediterranean, activism in Libya, and the desire to permanently anchor its influence in Syria have convinced these capitals that Ankara is testing regional limits. For Israel, the fear is that increased Turkish influence might eventually restrict its freedom of maneuver, particularly in Lebanese and Syrian airspaces. This trilateral dynamic is part of a broader regional framework, where energy security, freedom of navigation, and military projection are now closely intertwined. It also reflects a structural trend: the regionalization of security, as the direct involvement of major Western powers becomes more selective. At the same time, Turkey is multiplying initiatives aimed at consolidating its influence. Ankara is involved in the multinational force deployed in the Gaza Strip and is holding discussions with the two rival Libyan governments with a view to negotiating a new maritime agreement. Such a move could strengthen its dominant position in the maritime space of the Central and Eastern Mediterranean, to the detriment of its neighbors. The partnership between Israel, Greece, and Cyprus is not new. This military cooperation has developed continuously since Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan came to power in 2003. As soon as Turkish airspace was closed to Israeli planes, Israeli air force pilots found a vast training ground in Greece. Joint exercises intensified, intelligence cooperation deepened, and in the early 2020s, this relationship became institutionalized through long-term defense agreements and significant arms contracts. In this context, the criticisms made by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan against the Israeli-Greek-Cypriot trilateral summit attest to the centrality of this strategic realignment. While reaffirming Ankara's support for Gaza, the Turkish head of state denounced any infringement of Turkey's "rights" in the Mediterranean.

The Gulf States: Seeking a very specific power (3/3)
By
Jean-Patrick Dayras
Published

The Gulf States have emerged and become rich, certainly, thanks to the exploitation of their resources, but they have carried out, through rapidly crossed stages, a true cybernetic conversion that amounts to a revolution in the proper sense. The era of soft power in which they engaged was achieved through reorientations, observations, transformations, and adaptations, thanks to which they became a regional power. They subsequently expanded their capabilities and developed their multi-service area of action, which conferred upon them a global status. But these states did not want to stop there. The dynamism that allowed them to achieve their sought-after goals did not stop at this stage. The will and energy that characterized all these existential transformations led them to board the train configuring a new world, that of networks, data, their processing and management: the world of flows, connectivity, and also of space. They are becoming important actors in the new globalization scheme; they are at the « smart power » stage. The United States is perceived as the protector in military and strategic terms. As for the rest: talk to everyone and intervene where their interests are perceived. Act in areas where they will increase their wealth, maintain their current status, in order to develop and strengthen their positions. This is why Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates wanted to be accepted into the BRICS+ group; Kuwait and Bahrain have submitted their candidacies. Are the Gulf countries in question powerful? Are they all powerful together? Independently of one another? Another way to ask the question: do they have the means of power? It appears clear that their power is relative and selective. Referring to Raymond Aron's succinct but well-founded definition, the Gulf States are far from being powerful. But all together, and each partially and individually playing their part, they assert themselves as an indispensable focal point in many regional and global problems. Their wisdom in many difficult-to-solve issues, their know-how as mediators, their asserted and often very clear political and strategic positions place them above certain countries where it would be futile, illusory, to engage in negotiations. Economy, Finance, Diplomacy, Listening, Intra- and extra-regional positions, Entry into BRICS+, Modern and quality armaments dedicated to their own defense, Industrial-maritime and port development, Trade, Tourism, Global sporting, cultural, artistic events: the list of their advantages is long. It constitutes proof of the multiplicity of their assets, conferring upon them an international stature. Their power is not what one might expect from great countries, but it is progressing. The transition from hard power to soft power was an evolution. The transition to smart power is a revolution at the end of which no one is yet able to say how far it will go and who the winners will be. Let's consider these Gulf States. Their power is their importance in all these sectors of excellence. Their will is to be present where the world already counts on them, where they believe their place should be. NB: The importance of this subject prompted the organizers of the 4 th edition of the Mediterranean Strategic Meetings (RSMed 2025), a conference organized annually in Toulon (France) since 2022 by the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies (FMES), to dedicate a round table to it in the program of October 8 and 9, 2025. Read on the same topic: The Gulf States, from oil to power (1/3) The Gulf States, from regional to international (2/3)