The Levant in Turmoil: An Elusive Peace (1/3)

The Levant unmistakably reached a crucial tipping point on 7 October 2023, as Hamas launched a deadly attack on Israeli territory from the Gaza Strip. The circumstances and repercussions of this swift and bloody offensive sent a seismic shock through Gaza and Israel, of course, but also across other key centers of the Levant, notably Lebanon and Syria, and, by extension, Iran and Yemen.

The devastating impact of Hamas’s attack on Gaza and its population has once again brought the entire Israeli-Palestinian conflict to the forefront. Some had hoped that the events of 7 October 2023 might lead to a breakthrough in the longstanding Middle Eastern conflict, which has blighted the region for over seven decades. At this stage, this is far from being the case, at least in appearance. It is particularly regrettable that the Palestinian Authority has been unable to regain the initiative and embark on a swift and promising dialogue with Israel.

On the opposing side, it is legitimate to ask whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is willing to envisage and accept an end to these recurring regional conflicts, even if doing so risks triggering his own legal troubles. Whether he genuinely has the will to do so remains uncertain. After a military victory, does he foresee his defeat on the battlefield of communication? The signs suggest he does not.

It is true that as long as the Palestinians publicly assert that their goal is the elimination of the Israeli state, Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies will continue to pursue their deadly objectives. Let us not hide from the truth: on one side, there is a population that suffers and dies – but who elected Hamas? – and on the other, a people and a nation whose enemies seek not merely unconditional defeat, as Germany faced in 1945, but total annihilation. This is no longer about avenging the unbearable acts of 7 October 2023. This is about survival.

Yet, despite everything, a glimmer of hope appears on the horizon. Voices – and not insignificant ones – are being heard within Israel itself, calling for an end to the slaughter in Gaza. These voices recognize that Israel, born out of inhumanity, cannot pursue the same objectives, and that global opinion can shift at any moment and abandon the Israeli state. In the age of social media, public opinion can pivot quickly and irreversibly.

Contemporary history shows just how impossible it is to sustain a battle without the moral backing of both the population and key allies. The examples are particularly telling: the French in Indochina never fully had the support of the French population or certain key countries; later, in Algeria, they lacked the wholehearted backing of their own citizens and numerous other nations. The United States, too, was forced to abandon the government of South Vietnam, and later withdrew from Afghanistan in a humiliating manner – for both themselves and the countries that had supported them from the outset, ten years earlier. Their withdrawal left behind a heavy toll of human lives.

Benjamin Netanyahu must recognize that the stars are aligned for him to radically change his approach. Nothing is worse than not speaking – or refusing to speak – to one’s enemies. Perhaps this is even worse for him and for Israel than confronting domestic justice. Yet he will face it, and if he continues down this path, he will have even have, to defend himself, the stature of a statesman who saved his nation. Germany until April 1945, Japan until July 1945, and other countries in different circumstances, refused to engage with their enemies. Even today, many states shun dialogue with adversaries, with the result that civilians die every day, fueling resentment and hatred. By contrast, the well-known Cuban Missile Crisis demonstrates that dialogue can avert unnecessary and cataclysmic confrontation. True, negotiations and concessions were involved in some cases, but is that not a small price to pay for peace?

Israel must conduct itself as a normal state, even if it feels besieged and threatened. An Israeli state that respects its neighbours would gain substantial support across the Near and Middle East, as well as in the Western world and far beyond, making it unlikely to be annihilated by Hamas – which, if not already moribund, is at least significantly weakened. Such a course of action should clearly be adopted without naivety, taking care to ensure the hydra does not awaken.

Next article: The Levant in Turmoil: Lebanese and Syrian Perspectives