Peril is our dwelling, perpetual are our wars!
“Baytuna al-khataru”, (peril is our dwelling), an expression borrowed from Saïd Akl.
Michel Chiha was not fooled by our superficial national unity! Besides, who would have been? This essayist feared, above all, the demons of division and violence that haunted our Lebanese memory. His Lebanon was: “a country that tradition must defend against force… ”
National fragmentation and the historical legacy
The confrontation, which has been ongoing before our eyes since October 2023, may appear to be an international or regional confrontation between Israel and Iran, but it is also, as far as we are concerned, the continuation of an ancestral domestic conflict between Lebanese factions.
And in fact, it was written that the same nagging questions would always arise for us: which community is in control of the country, and which has the lion's share of the state's revenues? From this, no doubt, from this reality felt differently by political actors and other protagonists, stem all our internal conflicts, the intensity that characterizes them, and the blood that stains them!
At this precise moment, there is grosso modo the Shiite community which, having somehow tied its fate to the politics of the ayatollahs, has positioned itself against the other Lebanese communities, coincidentally gathered in the sovereignist camp. Let us remember that there is a natural filiation between our current “historical time” and that of the violent crises or “small wars” of 1975, 1958, 1925-7. And one can thus go back to 1860 and 1845, or even further, to find the same confessional groups in conflict even if, from one time to another, alliances were made and unmade and some communities changed their stance.
In Lebanon, war to change nothing
As for today, if Israel wants perpetual war, if, according to some observers, its government intends to continue hostilities to stay in power, an opposite situation prevails here: it is war that has taken hold of us, that does not intend to let us go. The conflict is consubstantial with the Lebanese entity, whether it extends to the territorial limits of the double Qaimaqamate of the 19th century or those of Greater Lebanon of 1920.
Perhaps we were not meant to stay together, juxtaposed in this way. But yes, we would say! We had always survived crises. We had always bounced back thanks to political elites who had chosen paths of appeasement and compromise, like Bechara el-Khoury and Riad el-Solh in 1943 and like Fouad Chehab, Saeb Salam and Rachid Karame after the events of 1958. But there, we had wise leaders at the helm, great traditional bourgeois, who recoiled from the prolonged use of force and the perpetuation of insurrectionary situations. Neither ideologues, nor comitadjis, they managed as best they could and ensured the defusing of crises that their own policies could provoke.
Mamluks, Bashi-bazouks and “vigilantes”
But what do we have today? A party that, proclaiming itself revolutionary by the grace of God, advocates violence. Militarized and battle-hardened, it does not disdain shows of force. Taking its instructions from Tehran, it interfered in restoring order in Syria and plunged headlong into a regional war for the sake of its Iranian employer. Never had the country known such an occupation (1): no more under the Mamluks than under the Bashi-bazouks! It is through brutality, threat, and intimidation that it asserts itself in the Lebanese political landscape. To make matters worse, our national army, guarantor of our sovereignty, is reduced to playing the role of an interposition force between neighboring districts and belligerent communities. A gendarmerie (jandarma) as under the Mutasarrifate, but more mechanized, is still useful, but it cannot meet the demands of the hour! And then, according to the Americans, its primary suppliers of equipment, this legitimate force has not fulfilled its commitments regarding the demilitarization of South Lebanon and the disarmament of the inflamed militia.
Dance on a volcano
That said, how do you expect a civilian population to face the “divine party” and its fanaticized followers? Suffice it to say that pockets of resistance will form. “Vigilantes” as they say in Spanish, self-proclaimed irregulars, arrogating to themselves the right to ensure security, will appear, and above all impose their order.
With the displacement of a million people into already overcrowded, wary, and guarded areas, we are imperceptibly sliding towards open conflict. The fire will spread. And this in various parts of the territory.
1 - When one considers that, contrary to diplomatic customs, the Iranian ambassador declared persona non grata refuses to abandon his post!