Iran counts on China, its last-resort ally

While the United States has promised an 'economic D-Day' for Iran, this strategy can only become fully effective with the cooperation of China, Iran's top oil importer and leading supplier of military technology to the mullahs' regime.

After six months of war in the Middle East, Washington has reason to worry about the quagmire this conflict—initially expected to last only a few weeks—has become. With no quick military solution in sight, the Trump administration has chosen to strangle the Iranian regime by introducing new sanctions targeting not Tehran directly, but its trading partners, in order to isolate the Iranian economy.

Chinese entities are among those affected by this sweeping plan from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has called on Beijing to fall in line.

The Shanghai Summit

The situation is so urgent that it has turned the summit marking the 25th anniversary of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) into a last-chance meeting for the Iranians.

The Russian, Chinese, Iranian, and Indian leaders are expected in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, on Monday and Tuesday, along with six other Central Asian nations. Among them: Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, as well as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

While China is clearly in the crosshairs of the new U.S. sanctions regime, Beijing has brushed aside these threats, insisting instead that it will firmly defend its interests and its partnership with Iran, a country it considers a major ally.

This standoff risks further escalating tensions between Beijing and Washington, ahead of Chinese leader Xi Jinping's planned visit to the U.S. capital in September.

Iran has been resisting sanctions targeting it for decades by mobilizing complex international financial networks to circumvent them.

Beijing is a major buyer of Iranian oil. It often settles its bills in renminbi—China's currency—which falls outside the reach of U.S. sanctions.

Moreover, even if maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz were to be cut off, China could continue receiving Iranian crude via Central Asian road and rail routes.

Costs vs. Benefits

As a result, Chinese purchases have indeed declined, but what remains is what Tehran needs to survive total economic suffocation.

According to experts interviewed by AFP, the new sanctions announced on Monday target certain Chinese entities accused of helping Tehran acquire critical technologies. However, the United States has so far refrained from sanctioning the Asian country's major financial institutions.

Beijing and Washington spent much of last year mired in an escalating trade war, until the fragile respite brought about by the meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in October 2025.

For its campaign against Iran to have any real impact, Washington may need to 'offer incentives' to Beijing to encourage the Asian giant to come on side, says Lim Tai Wei, a professor specializing in East Asia at Japan's Soka University, as quoted by AFP.

As such, China will only consider cooperating with the United States 'if the costs of supporting Iran were to become significantly higher than the strategic and economic benefits' of continuing to do business with the country.

Trump Multiplies the Distractions

Meanwhile, in Washington, President Donald Trump watches helplessly as a series of setbacks mount, casting a shadow over the upcoming midterm elections in November.

A renamed lake, shocking social media posts, bare-minimum engagement with the press… Trump no longer wants to talk about Iran or inflation—the two issues that are dragging down his presidency.

His approval ratings are at an all-time low, and the Republican Party fears a crushing defeat in November during elections that will determine control of Congress — which has been majority conservative until now.

The 80-year-old Republican is once again employing a strategy he has often used: stirring up noise in an attempt to drown out an unfavorable backdrop — in this case, a string of polls, each more damaging than the last, on his record.

This week, Donald Trump briefly captured the media spotlight by announcing he was renaming Lake Ontario, on the US-Canadian border, "Lake America" — a move that infuriated Canada.

Far-right influencer Matt Walsh also called the idea "politically stupid," seeing it as a "gift" to the American left.

It must be noted, however, that in this context, anti-immigration policy remains one of the few areas where the Republican president has stayed true to his stated course.

The administration has been heavily promoting its mass deportation campaign, which the Democratic opposition has frequently condemned as cruel.

The Department of Homeland Security, for instance, released a video on Thursday showing shackled Haitian nationals being boarded onto a plane, after Washington revoked a status that had allowed them to enter the country legally.

The video, set to music, was condemned as degrading and racist by opponents of Donald Trump.

Beyond that, the conflict in Iran has dragged on far longer than the few weeks the White House occupant promised, and above all, Americans are still waiting for the cost of living to drop, as he had guaranteed.

"The greatest president"

His administration is piling on emergency measures ahead of the elections across various areas: massive imports of foreign beef to drive down prices; buybacks of US Treasury bonds to reassure markets; and an express mission by the CIA director to try to dissuade Russia from targeting a NATO country, according to the American press.

Donald Trump, who has always relished impromptu exchanges with groups of journalists, is doing so less frequently — or cutting them short when he does. At the start of his second term, he would easily hold hour-long unplanned press conferences, sometimes every day.

He now prefers, as he did this week, to sit down for lengthy interviews with MAGA-friendly hosts, where he faces no pushback.

The Republican continues, however, to post prolifically on his Truth Social platform in a "trolling" style — gratuitous provocations designed to generate a viral reaction.

This week, he posted a "ranking" of several American presidents that outraged his opponents.

Lincoln and Washington were rated "very good," Clinton "average," while Biden, Obama, and Carter were deemed "failures." He himself, unsurprisingly, appears at the very top — alone — as the "greatest" president.