LevantTime .

The summit between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington marks a key milestone in the Lebanese government’s efforts to restore the authority of the state. Behind the summit lay a strategic objective that is part of the broader regional transformation now underway and that the United States fully supports because it also serves its own objectives: bringing an end to Iran’s influence in Lebanon. In practical terms, as is widely understood, that means resolving the issue of Hezbollah’s illegal weapons. The group continues to reject the authority of the Lebanese state and remains firmly opposed to the political course pursued by the president. For the Lebanese people and the international community, however, with the obvious exception of Iran, resolving the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons remains an essential prerequisite for restoring the state’s sovereignty.

The situation in Iran continues to escalate on every front. Tensions are rising both in the political and media spheres and on the battlefield. The U.S. military is continuing its strikes against the Revolutionary Guards’ strategic facilities and transportation networks, while the Guards are retaliating by targeting—not Israel—but Arab countries, primarily the Gulf states. In recent days, Revolutionary Guard attacks have extended to Jordan, where two American soldiers were killed, four others wounded, and a seventh remains missing while participating in air defense operations aimed at intercepting missiles and drones. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claims that its attacks on Arab countries are intended to strike U.S. military bases located there. However, recent events contradict that claim, as Iranian strikes over the past two days targeted, among other sites in Kuwait, a power plant and a seawater desalination facility.

Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan came under fresh Iranian attacks on Friday, in retaliation for American airstrikes carried out on Iranian soil. For the sixth consecutive day, Washington's Gulf allies are directly bearing the cost of this military escalation. The damage inflicted on civilian infrastructure on both sides points to a further intensification of the conflict. Late Friday evening, US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that the US military had launched, for the seventh consecutive night, a new wave of strikes against Iranian military positions and infrastructure. Iran's official state media reported powerful explosions shortly before midnight in several areas of southern Iran, including Bandar Abbas. Communication routes have been a particular focus of US military strikes over the past 48 hours.

Tensions in the region are continuing to escalate, increasingly resembling a volcano on the verge of erupting at any moment. Iran turned up the heat further on Thursday, once again wielding the Houthi card in response to American warnings. Meanwhile, in Lebanon, Hezbollah took its defiance of state institutions a step further, with some of its MPs launching a fierce attack on the President of the Republic to challenge the enforcement of Israel's partial withdrawal from pilot zones in the south of the country and the planned disarmament of the group. Just hours before the highly anticipated address by US President Donald Trump, scheduled for 1:00 AM GMT on the night of Thursday to Friday (4:00 AM Beirut time), Tehran announced that its military would target infrastructure across the region if the White House chief followed through on his threats to strike Iranian civilian infrastructure.

As Israeli forces continue their intermittent targeted raids in southern Lebanon and systematically dismantle Hezbollah's infrastructure in the region, the sixth round of direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, which concluded Wednesday in Rome under U.S. auspices, appears to have officially and concretely launched the long and perilous process of the IDF's gradual withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Following two days of meetings on Tuesday, July 14, and Wednesday, July 15, in the Italian capital, both authorized American and Lebanese sources described the outcome of this sixth round of Lebanese-Israeli talks as "fruitful" and "positive." The U.S. Embassy in Beirut indicated that concrete measures had been agreed upon for the establishment of the first two pilot zones, which should allow the Lebanese army to deploy in sectors to be vacated by the Israelis.

On Monday, July 13, Yemen is dominating the regional news agenda as the fragile truce reached in April 2022 is coming under intense strain following an Iranian power play that has reignited the Yemeni front. This military gambit is attribuable to the continuing escalation in the conflict between Tehran and Washington, after the United States decided to reinstate the blockade it had previously imposed on Iranian ports. Specifically, the Yemeni government carried out strikes on the runways of Sanaa International Airport, which is under Houthi control, in an attempt to prevent an Iranian aircraft carrying a delegation from the Iran-backed Shiite group from landing. The delegation was returning from Tehran, where it had attended the funeral of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Despite repeated warnings from Yemeni authorities, who had instructed the group to return aboard a flight operated by Yemenia, the country’s national carrier, the delegation insisted on flying back on the Iranian aircraft, even though Yemeni airspace is closed to Iranian aviation. The aircraft nonetheless continued its flight despite the government’s objections, but reportedly landed in Hodeidah, the Houthi-controlled Red Sea port city in western Yemen.

Is the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran entering its final days – or even its final hours? The question has taken on renewed urgency since Wednesday morning, as tensions between the two capitals have escalated sharply amid a new military standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. Since the end of the Israeli-American military campaign against its territory, the Islamic Republic has pursued a policy of brinkmanship, pushing its provocation to the limit in an effort to extract as many concessions as possible from President Donald Trump under the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) the two countries signed last June. Tehran appears to be betting that Trump’s preference for a diplomatic resolution to the conlict – driven by economic, financial and U.S. domestic political considerations – in order to push the envelope further without fearing that negotiations, which are expected to resume in the coming weeks, will be called into question.

The week is getting off to a relatively quiet start. The region’s main issues remain temporarily on hold, from the possible resumption of talks between Washington and Tehran to Israel’s withdrawal from two “pilot zones” in southern Lebanon. The pause is due in part to the official funeral ceremonies for Iran’s former Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, which conclude Thursday, as well as the NATO summit scheduled for Tuesday, July 7, and Wednesday, July 8, in Ankara. The gathering carries added significance as U.S. President Donald Trump is set to attend following months of tension with America’s European allies.

Has the uncertainty surrounding the long-announced resumption of U.S.-Iran talks in Doha over the past two days brought negotiations back to square one? Probably not, though it’s a fair question to ask. The picture is more nuanced, but the road ahead is far from easy. Tehran and Washington seem reluctant to make any further concessions beyond those already made under the memorandum of understanding they signed on June 18. While Doha is expected to host U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner today, alongside an Iranian technical delegation that will be joined on Wednesday by Iran’s deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, Kazem Gharibabadi, Qatari officials say that no direct high-level meeting with Iranian officials has been scheduled for now.

Uncertainty persisted at the start of the week over when technical talks between Tehran and Washington would resume, after both sides agreed last Tuesday in Switzerland to establish four working groups dedicated to sanctions relief, nuclear issues, and reconstruction. Strained by the military standoff over the Strait of Hormuz — where Iran is seeking to impose total control — and Tehran's refusal to allow IAEA inspectors access to its nuclear sites, talks between the two capitals have nonetheless not broken down, according to multiple corroborating sources cited by AFP and American media outlets.