Ukraine to Iran: Nuclear Weapons as the Ultimate Insurance?

Nuclear weaponry is no longer a mere military instrument. It has become the symbol of a deeper question, that of state security in a world where the effectiveness of international guarantees keeps eroding. The war in Ukraine, the persistent tension surrounding Iran, and North Korea’s survival despite its isolation all bring the same question back to the forefront: how can states still protect themselves within an increasingly unstable international order?

Ukraine, or the Lesson of Abandoning Deterrence

Ukraine represents the most debated case. Having relinquished its nuclear arsenal in exchange for international security guarantees, it found itself confronted with the Russian invasion. Since then, the question has resurfaced with even greater force: do political guarantees alone suffice to protect states against major threats?

North Korea, the Strength of Deterrence Beyond Isolation

North Korea, by contrast, offers an opposite model. Despite the sanctions and economic isolation weighing upon it, possession of nuclear weaponry has rendered the cost of any strike against it prohibitive. Nuclear deterrence has thus become a guarantee of survival for both regime and state, whatever the economic and political price.

Iran in Search of a Deterrent Umbrella

Iran, for its part, stands between the two models. It has not declared possession of nuclear weaponry, yet it seeks to strengthen its deterrent position within a turbulent regional environment. From its own perspective, the nuclear program forms part of a strategy meant to prevent any attempt to impose change by force or to threaten its national security.

A Deterrence No Longer Confined to the Nuclear

Recent developments show, however, that deterrence is no longer limited to the atomic weapon. Iran holds a strategic card through its capacity to influence the flow of global energy via the Strait of Hormuz. North Korea, meanwhile, has managed to leverage its military capabilities to extract economic and technological gains from Russia. Ukraine, for its part, has succeeded in developing advanced technologies in drones and electronic warfare, technologies that are now beginning to draw the interest of other nations.

The Middle East at a Crossroads

In the Middle East, this reality raises difficult questions about the future of regional security. Can the region continue to rely on shifting international alliances, or is it instead moving toward strengthening its own capacities for deterrence, in forms both nuclear and non-nuclear?

Lebanon: When the Human Being Becomes the Source of Deterrence

At the heart of this debate over instruments of power and deterrence, Lebanon stands apart as a different case. Its true wealth has never lain in the possession of nuclear weaponry, nor in control over strategic corridors, nor in the development of sophisticated military arsenals, but in possession of another form of power: that of the human being.

The values of shared life, the capacity for solidarity in times of trial, and the creative energy that the Lebanese have carried across the world in economics, culture, medicine, education, and the arts, have always constituted a strategic asset granting Lebanon a presence far exceeding its geographic and demographic size.

This soft power, even if it appears less resounding than missiles and fleets, remains one of the most essential elements of Lebanon’s survival and of its role in a region that needs, more than ever, models of coexistence and openness rather than division and conflict.

The Open Question

The essential question may not be whether nuclear weaponry constitutes the sole insurance policy of states, but rather whether the world is entering an era in which the forms of deterrence multiply, even as confidence in the capacity of international law alone to guarantee security and stability recedes little by little.