Lebanon in a Hundred Years

In an era when crises and challenges are multiplying, we read each day articles, studies and analyses focused primarily on describing the current reality and examining its political, economic and social dimensions.

Yet, despite the importance of understanding the present, excessive focus on diagnosing the situation has locked us into circular thinking: we turn endlessly around the same observations and the same deadlocks, without genuinely advancing towards serious reflection on the future of Lebanon, on that of its citizens, and consequently on that of society and the State.

Launching national reflection circles… with positivity

Lebanon today has an urgent need to create spaces for dialogue and reflection bringing together groups, elites and actors of society, whatever their level of organisation, in order to raise the fundamental questions that will determine the shape of the country in the decades to come.

The nations that survive and progress are not those that content themselves with managing their daily crises, but those that have the courage to think long-term and to sketch a clear vision of their future.

But before any debate, we must adopt positive thinking. A positive person is more open to the opinions of others; they see in the diversity of ideas a wealth and new opportunities for progress. Conversely, negative and closed thinking fosters mistrust of the other and ends up casting doubt on the very opportunities that stand before one.

We must also look at reality as it is, and not as we would wish it to be. Fleeing from facts or embellishing them produces no solutions; it merely defers the explosion of crises and aggravates them.

It therefore becomes essential to raise questions with objectivity and respect, far from pretence, narrow calculations or preconceived judgements. Living societies do not fear questions; they regard them as a natural step towards the search for a better future.

Imagining the next hundred years

Lebanon today, more than ever, needs “national reflection circles” capable of approaching calmly and realistically the great fundamental challenges, of exchanging viewpoints and seeking common ground likely to guarantee the country’s stability for the next hundred years.

Among the essential questions to be raised:

– What is the form of governance best suited to Lebanon in the light of past experience?

Does the centralised system remain the best choice?

Would extended decentralisation or federalism offer more effective solutions?

Or is it necessary to imagine an entirely new formula?

– Is the Taif Agreement still adapted after all the transformations experienced by Lebanon and the region?

– Is the model of coexistence and consensual democracy still capable of producing stability and building a genuine State?

– Does coexistence remain possible in its current form, in light of the experiences, crises and divisions traversed by the Lebanese?

– How should Lebanese diversity be managed?

Through a civil system founded on complete equality among citizens?

Or through a system respecting communal specificities and balances within a consensual formula guaranteeing stability?

– What should be the role of the State?

Should it be limited to ensuring security, stability and essential needs such as health, education and infrastructure?

Or should it intervene more broadly in the various economic and social sectors?

– What of education?

Should priority continue to be accorded to private schooling, which has long been one of Lebanon’s historical pillars?

Or does the future require a more balanced model between public and private sectors?

– What economy do we want?

Does the liberal economy remain the most appropriate choice for Lebanon?

Or does the next stage require a social economy reconciling economic freedom and social justice?

– How to ensure genuine popular participation in the production of power?

What electoral law would ensure fair representation and strengthen democratic life?

– How should major national decisions be taken in the event of disagreement?

– And what constitutional and political mechanisms would prevent deadlocks while preserving the national partnership?

These questions are but a few examples of the great debates that should be approached with courage and serenity. For building a nation consists not only in managing the crises of the present, but also in being capable of imagining the future and preparing for it.

It is often said: “In times of crisis, opportunities are born.” This is true, provided one knows how to read reality with lucidity and possesses the intellectual and political courage necessary to seize those opportunities, rather than contenting oneself with managing collapses or awaiting solutions from outside.

If Lebanon wishes to remain a living nation capable of enduring, it needs a long-term intellectual and national project, collectively elaborated, in order to build political, social and economic stability for the next hundred years — and not merely for a few years.