Lebanese Crisis: Where Do We Stand?

The process of rebuilding the Lebanese state appears to have stalled, despite some progress on the technocratic front. After more than a year of the Hezbollah’s so-called “support war” and the party’s waning influence on the regional stage, the election of the President sparked a wave of disproportionate euphoria. The formation of a promising government had raised hopes of restoring the state’s sovereignty. Yet, a year on, that euphoria has given way to disappointment, and hope has all but evaporated.

Hezbollah’s refusal, at Iran’s instigation, to bow to the will of the majority of Lebanese and to hand over its weapons to the state, coupled with its violation of UN Resolution 1701, has long served – and continues to serve – as a pretext for Israeli harassment targeting its leaders and infrastructure. This dynamic obstructs any real progress in restoring the Lebanese state.

Despite Iran’s declining influence and the backing of Washington, Arab states, and the international community, many figures within Beirut’s executive and legislative branches, as well as certain former military officials who mislead the public about our army’s capabilities, continue to submit to an arrogant and threatening Hezbollah. This is hardly surprising, as these officials, at every level of authority, have spent four decades, yielding to such influence.

It should come as no surprise that these actors might switch allegiances if a conflict between Tehran and Washington escalates into a swift or full-scale war favorable to the United States. Yet, in the event of a prolonged conflict or concessions from Washington, they are likely to celebrate their opportunistic alignment. For now, they remain in a stand-by mode, weighing which side to back. The problem is that these individuals represent the face of Lebanon itself – while the world’s major decision-makers privately despise them, indulge them and publicly insult them.

Hezbollah and its counterpart, the Amal Movement, have asserted themselves through street demonstrations and parliamentary control, notably via the Speaker. In addition, Hezbollah has relied on weapons, assassinations, and both covert and overt threats to achieve the same ends – a strategy that has proven effective among the centers of power. Both armed parties continue to maneuver simultaneously within the state and through their militias, which are structurally linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. Moreover, they have infiltrated Lebanon’s deep state and official institutions at every level.

The cleansing of these institutions falls squarely under the responsibility of the executive branch and the President of the Republic. Neither Hezbollah nor Amal has proposed – or continues to propose – any credible plan for building the Lebanese state, beyond a failed rhetoric of “resistance” and pervasive animosities. Survival of Hezbollah alone matters; and despite being weakened, the party remains committed to the same path it has followed for four decades.

Only true statesmen could push the country forward. Yet such figures are largely absent from official institutions, with a few rare exceptions steadfast in their sovereigntist positions. Their resolve, however, exposes them to the most virulent attacks and even physical threats from a Hezbollah clinging desperately to its gains – a dynamic that could come at a heavy cost to the nation.

The indecisive, the corrupt, the bazaar figures, the socio-politically blind, and the cowardly are incapable of governing, leading, or embodying the stature of true leadership. Lebanon is rich in human resources and talent, awaiting only the right opportunity to spark a genuine revival.

In this context, it is noteworthy that neighboring Syria has set remarkable benchmarks in restoring its state institutions. Yet significant gaps remain. The country must reassure and integrate its minorities and continue building its system. In short, Syria still has a long road to stability. However, what has been achieved so far is highly promising, largely because the Syrian state is led by a statesman, Ahmed al-Sharaa, emerging with maturity and pragmatism. He understands that the eyes of Syrians – and the world – are upon him, and he is rising to the challenge. In Lebanon, we are still waiting for the emergence of true statesmen.