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The ICRC convoy carrying the released civilians left the area occupied by Israel in southern Lebanon and traveled to the point marking the start of the zone controlled by the Lebanese authorities. (AFP)
Today's Essential
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By LevantTime .
Published Sep 5, 2026 - 00:55
The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) announced on Friday that it had transferred four more people released by Israel to Lebanon, a day after the release of a first civilian. They are three Lebanese nationals and two Syrians, according to the ICRC. This is the first time such an operation has taken place since negotiations between Lebanon and Israel began in April under US auspices. During the last round of talks in August, Beirut had requested the release of a first group of its nationals captured by Israel in southern Lebanon, where Israel is at war with the pro-Iranian Hezbollah. Their relatives estimate their number at around thirty, including fighters from the Islamist movement. In a statement, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun thanked the United States and the ICRC, saying the release "confirmed the soundness of the position" taken by Lebanon, which is engaged in negotiations with Israel that Hezbollah rejects. On Thursday, the United States praised "the government of Israel and the government of Lebanon for demonstrating good faith through these initial steps," expressing hope that this would "serve as a foundation for broader discussions on other civilian matters." The two countries are set to hold another round of negotiations in September, though the date has not yet been set. According to the Israeli prime minister's office, Thursday's announcement "follows efforts by Israel and Lebanon to locate and repatriate the remains of Jewish community leaders who were kidnapped and killed in Lebanon" between 1984 and 1986. Israeli strikes intensify On the ground, Israeli strikes killed three people and wounded 23 others on Friday in southern and eastern Lebanon. Israel stepped up its strikes in the region on Friday, after announcing Thursday evening that it had taken control of the Ali Taher mountain ridge, which had served as a strategic position for the pro-Iranian Hezbollah and overlooks Nabatiyeh, among other areas. The army will now reinforce its positions there in order to "prevent the enemy from retaking the area," said Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz. A strike also hit the Tyre region, particularly the village of Rmadiyé, according to the National News Agency (NNA). For Trump, the war in Iran is "small potatoes" Regarding the war in Iran, US President Donald Trump sought on Friday to downplay its impact on the United States ahead of the crucial midterm elections. "A lot of people aren't calling it a war. I call it a military conflict, because it's small potatoes for us. It's not a big deal. We did Venezuela, and we did that," he told reporters in the Oval Office when asked about his vice president, JD Vance, who had said the day before that he didn't want to call the conflict a war. With fuel prices surging because of the war and threatening to cost Donald Trump's Republicans their majority in Congress in November's midterm elections, his administration is working to downplay the scale of the conflict. According to the president, the United States is carrying out "targeted strikes," insisting that it is "not currently engaged in fighting." He also claimed that the United States controlled the Strait of Hormuz and had wiped out Iran's armed forces. "What we've accomplished is remarkable. We took control of Venezuela, and we've essentially taken control of Iran," he said.
Homage
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By Michel Hajji Georgiou - Published Sep 4, 2026 - 23:28
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What remains of Hassan Rifai is the image of a respected, composed jurist, an authority on administrative and constitutional law, arguing in a calm, quavering voice as he pointed out the deviations and failings of politicians in relation to the parliamentary democratic system and the Constitution. And yet, the former MP and minister, who died on September 3, 2025, was also a man in revolt. A dissenter. Even at one hundred. Especially at one hundred! He had been one as a child, haranguing crowds in Baalbeck against the Mandate, and remained one throughout his career as a lawyer and parliamentarian. At one hundred, utterly disillusioned with the Republic and its buccaneers, his quiet anger had not subsided. “Lebanon is an impossible country!” he told the author of these lines in an interview conducted a few years before his death and never published. But make no mistake. Hassan Rifai was neither a nihilist nor someone who rejected everything outright. He had fought all his life for a certain idea of Lebanon. More specifically, for Greater Lebanon, united and plural. And he appreciated the Lebanese experience for what it was worth, including all that was positive in it. But human beings had disappointed him. And yet it was precisely the human being he was seeking. He never found that person on the Lebanese public stage. At least not in the service of the Republic. Rifai was a man of law, always elegant, irreproachable, everything one would expect of a man of his moral and intellectual stature. But he was also uncompromising. Merciless, even. No doubt his attachment to his country and its democratic system had led him to acknowledge only one loyalty: a certain code of values and a certain idea of the Republic. That was why he was critical of every mistake and every abuse, beginning with those committed by his own political friends. He spared no one. Neither communities nor clans, neither religious leaders, he was secular himself, and certainly not political officials. No one escaped his scrutiny, and Rifai took a certain pleasure in dismantling the myths and received ideas that portrayed this or that president of the Republic or prime minister as an exceptional leader. His yardstick was objective: the consistency of actions with democratic principles. As a result, no one truly found favor in his eyes. The conclusion was devastating: none of the country’s leaders, throughout its history, had genuinely respected Lebanese parliamentary democracy. None. That did not mean he placed everyone on the same footing. He had enough critical distance to recognize the qualities and shortcomings of each. He liked to quote Léon Duguit: “Constitutional law has no safeguard other than the good faith of those who apply it.” He had almost made it his republican credo. And his verdict was merciless: that good faith, quite simply, he had not found. Too many politicians, and not enough statesmen. And above all, a great deal of lying and hypocrisy. One day, a senior political figure advised him: “Do not build roads for people. Otherwise they will stop coming to you.” Despite the respect he had for this political ally, the remark left him bewildered and shocked. It contained an entire conception of power: never permanently solve the problem of those one claims to represent, because once their need disappears, so does the very reason for their dependence. The project of the state was thus postponed indefinitely. Or, at the very least, whenever good people did exist, the system prevented them from reaching positions of responsibility. Rifai was a rebel, yes, but one armed with the rigor and precision of a master craftsman of administrative and constitutional law. That was undoubtedly what set him apart within Lebanon’s political milieu. He was rebellious enough, in any event, to pay a price for it. In August 1982, he survived an assassination attempt after opposing the Israeli diktat. At Taif in 1989, he was almost cast out for having immediately discerned the existing flaws and the traps added to the constitutional reforms. From 1992 onward, under the Syrian occupation, he endured political ostracism for opposing the security apparatus underpinning Syrian tutelage and Rafic Hariri’s policies. But he was fair. He could oppose political confessionalism while acknowledging that abolishing it at the present stage would be disastrous for Lebanon, and that a system of majority rule based purely on numbers would once and for all toll the death knell of the Lebanese formula and of the Christian presence in Lebanon. He could agree that Christians had been wronged by the constitutional reforms of Taif, Sunnis too, he maintained, while at the same time recalling the excesses committed in the exercise of power by presidents of the Republic between 1943 and 1990, and warning against a nostalgic return to those practices under the refrain of “Christian rights.” A drift toward a presidential or semi-presidential system would, in his view, endanger Christians. The importance of the parliamentary system inherited from the French Third Republic lay precisely in the fact that the president of the Republic was not politically accountable to the Chamber of Deputies. That placed him, according to Rifai, in a privileged position. Above the fray, he could steer the ship of the Republic safely into port without becoming bogged down in struggles for power. That moral responsibility to preserve the Constitution and the Republic was, in his eyes, far more important than any political responsibility. But the principal parties concerned still had to be persuaded of that. Rifai could recognize the importance of administrative decentralization while refusing to allow that demand to become an ideological slogan concealing separatist ambitions. In this regard, he recalled that Beirut and Mount Lebanon had been favored in the construction of Greater Lebanon, while the peripheral regions, particularly his own, Baalbeck, had been neglected. That had contributed to weakening Lebanese national sentiment, which ultimately depended on well-being grounded in respect for human dignity. Commitment to citizenship presupposed that everyone be treated equally in terms of development. Without equality among citizens, sovereignty could only falter. That, indeed, was the meaning of his first speech in Parliament in 1968. The events that followed gave that warning a singular gravity. Economic, social and territorial imbalances contributed to fueling the demands of the left and of part of the Muslim street in a country already strained by sectarian tensions, foreign interference and the growing power of armed organizations. They thus contributed to the gradual weakening of the state, before the war, successive occupations and the emergence of para-state structures. Ultimately, Hassan Rifai embodies something of that Lebanese model of the cosmopolitan, complex personality who stands outside communal and partisan trenches, enjoys almost unanimous respect, especially beyond political circles, yet is consulted within those same circles only when needed and for self-interested reasons. Lebanon does not like minds that are too independent and too unruly, even if its system still contains cracks through which such people can exist and make themselves heard. They are tolerated, but they must remain on the margins. The survival of the state of zaamat and the state of jamaat depends on it: a system that invariably prefers turning to foreign patrons rather than to people capable of generating, proposing and implementing solutions from within. Lebanon’s political system and its protagonists detest the notion of responsibility, which they find profoundly anxiety-inducing, and prefer dependence or, worse still, servility. Yet Rifai repeatedly said, once again quoting Léon Duguit: “Where responsibility lies, there lies power.” Should it then come as any surprise that in Lebanon, where responsibility is nowhere to be found, power is nowhere to be found either? Or, more precisely, that it is always elsewhere?
Analyze
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By Jad Akhawi - Published Sep 4, 2026 - 15:00
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The battle of Ali al-Taher was not merely a military confrontation over a strategic hill in southern Lebanon. Despite its limited size, the site became a point where military, political, and regional calculations converged, exposing one of the core issues at the heart of Lebanon’s ongoing conflict: who controls the territory, who holds the weapons, and who decides on war and peace? What is most striking is not only Israel’s entry into the site, but Hezbollah’s insistence on refusing to hand it over to the Lebanese Army, even though the Army is the only legitimate institution supposed to assume responsibility for Lebanese territory, particularly in border areas directly tied to the country’s security and sovereignty. Why Did Hezbollah refuse? Because handing Ali al-Taher over to the Army would not have been understood as a limited measure on the ground. It would have carried a political meaning extending far beyond the hill itself. Such a move would have amounted to a de facto recognition of the Lebanese state’s authority over security and military decisions in the South, and of the principle that no other armed force can act as though it exercises effective authority on the ground. The site therefore became a test of state authority, rather than merely an advanced military position. Who Killed the fighters? This remains the most obscure episode in the account of the battle. The Israeli version speaks of fighters being killed and others fleeing, while independent information about how many people were present at the site, the nature of their mission, and what ultimately happened to them remains incomplete. The conflicting accounts also raise numerous questions that cannot be resolved through military statements alone. And this is not merely an operational detail: Were most of the fighters killed inside the site? Did they manage to withdraw through tunnels and passageways? Or had they been evacuated before the Israeli operation began? Each of these scenarios carries a different significance. If the fighters remained until the final moments, that would mean the site witnessed a direct confrontation that ended in clear Israeli military superiority. If, on the other hand, they were evacuated beforehand, the questions would concern who made that decision, why it was taken, and whether the evacuation formed part of a broader understanding or was simply a precautionary military measure. And if it were established that a significant number of them had left before Israeli forces entered the site, the central questions would then be: how did they leave, who facilitated their departure, and did it take place with the knowledge of local or international actors? At this stage, there is insufficient public evidence to determine which of these scenarios is correct. But the absence of information does not make these questions any less important. On the contrary, it deepens the uncertainty surrounding what occurred in the hours preceding the capture of the site. What About the U.S. Ambassador’s Visit to Israel? The timing deserves attention. The escalation around Ali al-Taher coincided with U.S. diplomatic moves involving Israel, while reports emerged of discussions concerning the site and the possibility that it might eventually be handed over to the Lebanese Army. This does not necessarily mean that the decision was made outside Lebanon, nor that a fully developed agreement was reached between Washington, Tel Aviv, and Beirut. But it does suggest that the site is no longer being viewed as a purely local military issue. There is no basis for asserting that the U.S. ambassador’s visit was part of a secret deal concerning Ali al-Taher. Nor can it be stated with certainty that everything that happened resulted from a prior understanding among the parties involved. What is clear, however, is that Washington views the future of the site as part of a broader file involving the ceasefire, the stabilization of the border, the prevention of any military presence outside the authority of the Lebanese state, and efforts to ensure that border areas do not become permanent platforms for confrontation. Ali al-Taher thus becomes part of negotiations that extend far beyond its geography. The site may be small on the map, but it is connected to major questions concerning arrangements in the South, the role of the Lebanese Army, the future of weapons outside state control, and the limits of Israeli influence in the region. The Paradox That Embarrassed Hezbollah The central political paradox is that Hezbollah refused to hand the hill over to the Lebanese Army, yet ultimately failed to retain it. If the Israeli operation were to end with the withdrawal of Israeli forces and the handover of the site to the Lebanese Army, the outcome would be very different from the situation Hezbollah sought to impose or preserve: Hezbollah refused to hand the site over to the state, Israel forced it out, and the state then returned to assume responsibility. In other words, Hezbollah refused to establish the Army’s authority voluntarily, but may find itself confronted with a reality that establishes that authority by other means. This is what makes the situation politically embarrassing, because the final outcome may appear to have achieved indirectly what Hezbollah refused to do directly. This raises an obvious question: why was handing the site over to the Army not considered the least costly option for Lebanon? Such a move could have been presented as a strengthening of the state’s role, a means of protecting the South, and a way of preventing Israel from using Hezbollah’s presence as a pretext to remain on the ground or advance further. The refusal to hand the site over to the Army instead kept it within the zone of confrontation and allowed Israel to present its operation as a response to a military presence outside state authority. Ali al-Taher Encapsulates Lebanon’s Problem The issue goes far beyond this hill. Lebanon cannot recover its sovereignty as long as two military authorities coexist: that of the Army and that of weapons outside state control. Nor can it ask the international community to respect its borders while military decision-making within those borders remains divided between state institutions and an armed organization possessing capabilities independent of them. At the same time, Lebanon cannot demand that Israel withdraw from its territory while security decisions concerning that same territory remain the subject of an internal dispute. As long as weapons remain outside state control, the Israeli argument will persist, and the South will remain exposed to further rounds of escalation. Sovereignty cannot be shared. Either the Lebanese Army is the sole military authority, or Lebanon will remain an open arena for regional conflicts in which Iranian, Israeli, and American calculations intersect, while the state and society pay the price of confrontation. This is why the real question after Ali al-Taher is not: Who won the hill? But rather: Who will control it once the battle is over? If the answer is the Lebanese Army, Ali al-Taher could mark the beginning of a transition in the South from the logic of “resistance” to the logic of state responsibility. It could constitute a first step toward redefining national security so that defending the borders becomes the responsibility of state institutions rather than that of any party acting independently. If Israel remains, however, Lebanon will once again have lost part of its sovereignty, regardless of the narrative each side puts forward to justify what happened. In either case, one essential truth remains: Hezbollah cannot substitute itself for the state, and Israel cannot serve as the guarantor of its sovereignty. Lebanese sovereignty can only be restored by the Lebanese state, protected by its Army, and upheld by a clear political decision that puts an end to the duality of arms and authority.
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The Dangerous Architecture of the AI Capex Bubble
By
Jacques Mechelany
Published

In 2006, credit markets priced U.S. housing risk as diversified. The subprime market was born. The mathematics looked safe. Reality delivered collapse — and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. In 2025, a strikingly similar illusion has taken hold — this time in artificial intelligence. For now, AI has been largely a capital-expenditure phenomenon, dominated by a very small number of companies such as Nvidia and Oracle — the modern “shovel makers” — building chips and data centers to absorb nearly $1.5 trillion of cumulative investment by a handful of hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon. This unprecedented spending wave has driven stock prices to unimaginable heights. At the same time, the AI sector has constructed a circular financing architecture in which the same capital flows repeatedly among a small group of dominant players. Each books revenue from the others. Each justifies valuation expansion through the others’ spending. And each is treated by financial markets as if its risks were independent. They are not. At the core of this structure lies a single, unprecedented contract: a $300 billion, five-year agreement between OpenAI and Oracle. This contract has quietly become the load-bearing pillar of the global AI investment thesis. If it holds, the AI capex boom survives. If it fractures, the consequences extend far beyond the two signatories. OpenAI raises capital at ever-higher valuations — capital that is then spent on Nvidia chips and Oracle infrastructure. Oracle, in turn, uses OpenAI’s commitment to borrow massively in order to fund data-center expansion, much of which flows straight back to Nvidia. Nvidia’s equity appreciation — which briefly carried the company to a mind-boggling $5 trillion market capitalization last October — then feeds capital back into OpenAI through direct investment and ecosystem reinforcement. The same dollars appear as revenue multiple times across corporate balance sheets. Growth is booked. Valuations rise. More capital is raised. The wheel spins faster. This is circular finance, not organic end-user demand. What appears to be explosive adoption increasingly amounts to companies paying each other with investor capital — all predicated on future enterprise AI monetization that has yet to materialize at scale. The mathematics of the Oracle–OpenAI relationship are stark. OpenAI is on track to lose approximately $16 billion in 2025 and projects cumulative losses exceeding $100 billion before decade-end. To honor its Oracle commitment, it must grow revenue from roughly $20 billion to $100 billion within three years — a feat no software company in history has ever achieved. Oracle, meanwhile, must finance up to $180 billion of AI-specific infrastructure to serve essentially one anchor tenant: OpenAI. Its free cash flow has turned negative. Its debt load is rising. This is a bilateral dependency. If OpenAI cannot pay, Oracle is left with stranded assets. If Oracle cannot finance the build-out, OpenAI faces a compute crisis at precisely the wrong moment. Neither party can exit. Neither can survive the other’s failure. Engineers call this a single point of failure. Markets usually discover them too late. Every systemic episode has a financial correlation node. In the 2008 subprime ecosystem, it was AIG. In today’s AI ecosystem, that role is increasingly occupied by Japan’s SoftBank. SoftBank holds massive, overlapping exposure to OpenAI, the Stargate infrastructure project, and the broader AI complex — all while operating with limited incremental funding capacity. Its balance sheet is leveraged to a single outcome: that AI adoption accelerates rapidly and smoothly within a narrow time window. If OpenAI stumbles, SoftBank’s equity collapses. If Stargate underperforms, infrastructure capital is impaired. If both occur simultaneously, forced deleveraging becomes unavoidable — with knock-on effects across the entire AI equity universe. The entire AI capex thesis hinges on one critical assumption: that AI adoption and monetization will explode between 2027 and 2028. On the adoption side, competition is intensifying. ChatGPT’s growth rates are already peaking as new entrants — including Chinese open-source AI models — gain traction. On the monetization side, academic and industry data offer little comfort: 95% of enterprises deploying generative AI report no measurable return on investment. Many projects are already being scaled back or quietly abandoned. As with the internet, the AI revolution is real, and its long-term impact will be profound. But technological revolutions are rarely linear — and they almost never reward every participant equally. Oracle itself was a darling of the internet boom in 1999, before losing nearly 80% of its market value in the 2000 collapse. What we are witnessing today is a self-referential financial architecture, where capital circulates internally while equity markets extrapolate perfection through extreme valuations. For now, equity markets remain optimistic. Credit markets are not. In recent days, Oracle’s credit-default-swap spreads have climbed to levels last seen during the global financial crisis. Historically, credit markets price reality before equity investors do. With Oracle shares falling 11% in a single session despite spectacular earnings growth, and SoftBank dropping 7.7% on the same news, equity investors may finally be starting to question whether the AI investment narrative is as solid as advertised. This is not 2008. But the mathematics rhyme.

"Nostra aetate”: Abu Dhabi and “Fratelli tutti”, the good fruits of dialogue (3/4)

“Nostra aetate” profoundly reshaped dialogue between Catholics and Muslims. From John Paul II to Pope Francis, the Holy See has pursued its work of encounter and fraternity. This is the third installment in our series. It is hard to overstate the impact of the 1965 declaration Nostra aetate on relations between the Catholic Church and the Arab-Muslim world. To grasp this fully, nothing is more helpful than reading the text itself, which presents no dogmatic difficulty. Here is the passage that concerns us directly: “(…) The Church regards with esteem also the Moslems. They adore the one God, living and subsisting in Himself; merciful and all- powerful, the Creator of heaven and earth,(5) who has spoken to men; they take pains to submit wholeheartedly to even His inscrutable decrees, just as Abraham, with whom the faith of Islam takes pleasure in linking itself, submitted to God. Though they do not acknowledge Jesus as God, they revere Him as a prophet. They also honor Mary, His virgin Mother; at times they even call on her with devotion. In addition, they await the day of judgment when God will render their deserts to all those who have been raised up from the dead. Finally, they value the moral life and worship God especially through prayer, almsgiving and fasting. Since in the course of centuries not a few quarrels and hostilities have arisen between Christians and Moslems, this sacred synod urges all to forget the past and to work sincerely for mutual understanding and to preserve as well as to promote together for the benefit of all mankind social justice and moral welfare, as well as peace and freedom.” Mapping the “cradle” of Christianity Between 1985 and 2001, building on this solid doctrinal foundation, Pope John Paul II made a series of striking gestures: his address in Casablanca before 80,000 young Muslims, urging them to “believe together in the one God” (1985); the Assisi prayer for peace with representatives of all religions (1986); the Synod for Lebanon, which included Muslim “fraternal observers” (1995); and his historic visit to Syria and to the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus (2001). In the Middle East, Pope Benedict XVI – and above all his successor, Pope Francis – continued the task of spiritually mapping the “cradle” of Christianity, that region where Christian faith is now lived out within a Muslim environment, Lebanon being the notable exception. It is Pope Francis who has achieved, in terms of interreligious dialogue, the most significant breakthrough, thanks to the Document on Human Fraternity signed in Abu Dhabi (2019) together with the Grand Imam of al-Azhar, Ahmad al-Tayyeb, and to the encyclical Fratelli tutti (2020), which develops its message. The encyclical states in particular: “Issues of human fraternity and social friendship have always been a concern of mine (…). I have felt particularly encouraged by the Grand Imam Ahmad Al-Tayyeb, with whom I met in Abu Dhabi, where we declared that ‘”God has created all human beings equal in rights, duties and dignity, and has called them to live together as brothers and sister’. This was no mere diplomatic gesture, but a reflection born of dialogue and common commitment. The present Encyclical takes up and develops some of the great themes raised in the Document that we both signed. (…) I offer this social Encyclical as a modest contribution to continued reflection, in the hope that in the face of present-day attempts to eliminate or ignore others, we may prove capable of responding with a new vision of fraternity and social friendship that will not remain at the level of words. Although I have written it from the Christian convictions that inspire and sustain me, I have sought to make this reflection an invitation to dialogue among all people of good will.” ( Fratelli tutti 5 and 6) Abrahamic Family House These principles have since been given tangible form in several initiatives, the most notable being the Abrahamic Family House in Abu Dhabi. Inaugurated in 2023, the complex brings together a mosque, a church, and a synagogue within a shared space – a venue for education, prayer, and encounter. Yet attitudes have not progressed at the same pace everywhere. Saudi Arabia, for instance, still has no diplomatic relations with the Vatican; the construction of churches and the public celebration of religious services outside diplomatic compounds remains forbidden. Nostra aetate and the dialogue it has fostered have taken root primarily within Sunni Islam, the majority branch, which accounts for 85 to 90 per cent of Muslims worldwide. Yet the council document’s call for openness is universal. It notably inspired Pope Francis to meet Grand Ayatollah Sistani during his trip to Iraq in 2021. The theme of the visit – “You are all brothers” – echoed the message of Fratelli tutti .

The Royal Opera House Muscat, between tradition and cutting-edge technology

The Muscat Opera House is one of the most iconic landmarks in Oman. It was built in 2011 at the request of Sultan Qaboos bin Said. Great lover of art and opera, the Sultan wanted to create a cultural exchange center between Oman and the rest of the world, as well as a platform to promote both global and local artistic performances. A symbol of Oman’s cultural diplomacy since its inauguration, the Royal Opera House Muscat is an architectural masterpiece which cleverly combines the classical style of opera houses with Omani architectural tradition. It successfully blends Islamic influences with contemporary design and high-tech requirements needed for such a building. By using Omani architectural details both inside and outside the building and merging them with contemporary elements, the architects succeeded in creating a typically Omani edifice endowed with timeless elegance. To achieve this result, they used locally sourced typical materials such as limestone and adorned the facade with delicate masonry work that showcases the craftsmanship of Omani artisans. The interior of the building is both refined and authentic. It is entirely decorated with marble, finely carved wood, luxurious tapestries, crystal chandeliers, and delicate arabesque patterns. As for the auditorium, it has a capacity of around 1,100 seats. It is equipped with cutting-edge sound and lighting technology. The movable stage is entirely designed to provide the artists as well as the audience with perfect sound quality and an unobstructed view, no matter where they are seated. This advanced technology and great versatility in configuration make it technically possible to hold all kinds of artistic events, placing the Royal Opera House Muscat among the most high-tech and refined art spaces in the world. Since its inauguration, the Royal Opera House in Muscat has welcomed performances from all over the world. Well known jazz musicians like Igor Butman and Randy Brecker have performed at the Royal Opera House Muscat as well as the world’s leading symphony orchestras such as the Vienna Philharmonic Orchestra, The London Symphony Orchestra or the Russian National Orchestra. The greatest soloists have graced its stage, such as Andrea Bocelli, Renée Fleming, and Plácido Domingo, to name just a few. The most renowned ballet companies, including the Bolshoi and the American Ballet Theatre, have also performed at the Royal Opera House in Muscat. Regional music is not left out. Well known arab musicians have performed in Muscat and the opera house regularly presents plays from different countries around the world and the region, highlighting both Omani and international cultural heritage. These eclectic programming choices have transformed the Royal Opera House Muscat in a privileged and essential venue for high-quality artistic events, attracting international as well as local audience. Besides the wide range of programs, the Opera House does not neglect its educational mission and offers workshops and programs for aspiring artists and special discounts for young students in order to boost cultural development in Oman. Years after its construction, the Royal Opera House Muscat has perfectly fulfilled its primary mission, set by Sultan Qaboos, which was to promote both local and international artists, raise awareness among the population about classical music, and encourage cultural exchanges among artists worldwide. Well done.

The Papal Visit and the Israeli Threat: Between Symbolism and Realities

The visit of Pope Leo XIV to Lebanon was not merely a passing religious or pastoral stop; it was a profoundly political moment in one of the region’s most sensitive phases. A visit that carried messages to Lebanon’s domestic scene as much as it carried messages outward — specifically to Israel, and to the international powers holding the threads of the regional game. Yet the question that resonated strongly after the Pope’s departure was this: Did the visit put an end to the idea of an Israeli attack on Lebanon? The answer is not simple. Between the immense symbolic value of the visit and the cold strategic calculations along the southern border, one clear truth emerges: the visit granted Lebanon a temporary psychological and political breathing space, but it did not erase the logic of war. Still, together with the escalating French diplomatic activity and the President’s visit to the Sultanate of Oman, it helped create a new political and diplomatic deterrence network — one that may slow down a decision for war, and perhaps even redraw its terms. The Papal Visit: Powerful Symbolism… but Clear Limits The arrival of the Pope to a country ravaged by crises sends a clear message: the world has not abandoned Lebanon entirely, and preserving its diversity and role remains an international priority. The Pope encouraged the Lebanese to reconcile, to rely on the state, and to renounce violence. But the importance of the visit lies not only in the content of its message — but also in its timing, the most sensitive since the end of the 2006 war. Israel views such moments through a strategic lens. The presence of the head of the Catholic Church in Beirut raised the cost of any large-scale attack during that period. It would have been extremely difficult for Israel to launch a war while Lebanon was hosting a global religious figure of this stature, with the entire world speaking, reacting, and watching. This means the visit succeeded — even if only temporarily — in creating a media and moral protective shield. But does this visit shift the balance of power? Of course not. Israel does not make decisions of war based on morale or symbolism, but on military and political calculations. Thus, the impact of the visit is limited in time and symbolic scope, and insufficient to deter a war decision if the Israeli leadership were to make one later. The French Role: Between Mediation and Diplomatic Pressure If the Pope’s visit appealed to emotion and global conscience, the French role speaks directly to the heart of political maneuvering. Historically and practically, France remains the most engaged European country in Lebanon’s affairs. Over the past weeks, Paris has worked along two parallel tracks: 1. Field-level de-escalation, through direct and indirect channels with Israel. 2. Reactivating the border file and the renewed implementation of Resolution 1701. ` It is no secret that the French leadership has been trying for months to prevent the south from sliding into full-scale war. Paris has long played the role of mediator, reminding Washington that a war in Lebanon will not serve the regional stability the U.S. administration is seeking. Yet, France’s limits are clear: • France has no coercive power over Israel. • Its influence is based primarily on persuasion, not compulsion. • Full alignment with Washington’s position is not always guaranteed. Still, French pressure — especially with accelerating diplomatic movements — plays directly into Israel’s strategic calculations, becoming a factor of hesitation. Israel knows that France can mobilize Europe politically and in the media against any large-scale invasion — and this is no small detail in the realm of international legitimacy. The Lebanese President’s Visit to Oman: A Regional Platform for De-Escalation In a moment when regional arenas overflow with tension, the President’s visit to the Sultanate of Oman emerged as a shrewd investment in Muscat’s quiet but effective diplomatic role. Oman is not a country of noise, but one of subtle influence, maintaining balanced relations with all sides: • Tehran • Gulf capitals • Western powers • And even sensitive back channels with certain international actors This means the President’s visit was not ceremonial, but a platform for building a network of regional guarantees and opening mediation channels that could help cool the southern front. Muscat excels at playing a role no one else can: quiet communication between major adversaries without fanfare. And this role may well be one of the unspoken pillars in preventing military escalation. Between Three Actors — the Pope, France, and Oman… What Has Changed? When combining the three elements, the following becomes clear: 1. The Papal visit provided Lebanon with symbolic and moral protection and restored global attention to its plight. 2. The French role pushes toward a political settlement and restrains war through continuous diplomatic pressure. 3. The President’s engagement in Oman may pave the way for an indirect negotiation track among regional and international actors regarding the southern front. But is all this enough to prevent war? The truth is that war is prevented only when its cost outweighs its potential gains for Israel. The Papal visit, French diplomacy, and Omani mediation all raise that cost — but none eliminates the war option if Tel Aviv believes it has a unique strategic opportunity. We are thus facing a temporary freeze of the logic of attack, not its cancellation — a fragile balance between international pressure for de-escalation and an Israeli decision oscillating between escalation and domestic political considerations. Ultimately, the Pope’s visit did not end the idea of war — but it made war harder. French diplomacy created a political deterrence network. And the President’s visit to Oman did what quiet diplomacy does best: opened doors that never open in public. Israel will continue to watch. Lebanon will continue to wait. But the reality is that international pressure on Tel Aviv is now the strongest it has been in years. And that alone is no guarantee… but it is, at least, an opportunity.

Why Lebanon Urgently Needs a Comprehensive Law to Protect Women

In Lebanon, women remain acutely vulnerable to a wide range of abuses and acts of violence, largely because there is still no political will to enact meaningful legislative reform to dismantle entrenched discrimination. The figures speak for themselves: up to November 2025, 89% of all reports made to hotline 1745 – dedicated to domestic violence – came from women. In 57.5% of these cases, the aggressor was the husband. In 2024 alone, at least 17 women were killed; in 60% of those cases, the perpetrator was their spouse. Confronted with this alarming reality and staying true to its mission since its creation in 2005, Kafa – an NGO fighting gender-based violence and exploitation – is calling for the adoption of a comprehensive law, an “essential tool”, it argues, to prevent and combat this phenomenon. To highlight the urgency of such legislation, the organization launched “Ayb”, or “Shame on You”, on 25 November, marking the start of the international “Sixteen Days of Activism Against Gender-Based Violence Against Women and Girls”, which runs until 10 December, International Human Rights Day. “The adoption of a comprehensive law is all the more crucial because the Lebanese state has still not formally recognized violence against women,” explains Leila Awada, lawyer and co-founder of Kafa. “We’ve seen this before with the domestic violence law. For eight years, we campaigned for a text that would protect women, but Parliament ultimately passed a law covering every family member. The same happened with the law against sexual harassment, which includes no mechanisms to protect women, even though they are the primary victims.” A Model Arab Law Putting words into action, Kafa has drafted a bill designed to prevent and combat violence against women. The work began in 2017, following calls at the time for an exemplary Arab law on the issue. Presented to Parliament in 2024 by several so-called ‘change’ MPs, the document draws heavily on the Council of Europe Convention on preventing and combating violence against women and domestic violence, better known as the Istanbul Convention. Concluded and signed on 11 May 2011 in Türkiye, it entered into force on 1 August 2014. To date, it bears the signatures of 43 member states of the Council of Europe and of the European Union, although Türkiye withdrew in 2021, followed by Latvia in 2025. It has been ratified by 37 states, as well as the EU. Binding on its state parties, the convention remains open to non-member countries of the Council of Europe. Four Pillars The draft law put forward by Kafa is built around four pillars: prevention, protection, prosecution, and reparation. Under the prevention pillar, the relevant ministries and authorities are urged to adopt a range of proactive measures. These include, for example, integrating chapters on gender equality into school curricula; tackling school dropout rates, particularly among girls; training investigators in best practices for handling domestic violence complaints and case files; developing programs to strengthen women’s social and economic autonomy; and amending legal provisions that discriminate against women. When it comes to protection, victims of domestic violence should be offered psychological, medical, and social support. The state should also provide free legal advice, help women access employment, and ensure they have safe accommodation. Therapeutic programs for perpetrators of violence should likewise be established. In terms of prosecution, the document presented by Kafa recommends a series of measures ranging from clear definitions of the various forms of violence – including rape and economic violence – to tougher penalties for crimes committed against women. It also provides for a duty to report, easier procedures for filing complaints based on the victim’s place of residence, the suspension of provisions granting mitigating circumstances, the criminalization of all forms of violence against women, the establishment of a specialized judicial body at every stage of investigation and trial, and the possibility for victims to obtain a protection order. As for reparation, Kafa proposes the creation of a fund to support women who have experienced violence, ensuring the payment of advances owed to victims under judicial rulings, the partial or full payment of compensation, and covering the costs required for the rehabilitation of perpetrators. A National Strategy “The document prepared by Kafa effectively serves as a national strategy on how the state should act to protect women and prevent violence,” explains Leila Awada. “Prevention necessarily involves addressing the structural causes of such violence, among which the different personal status laws that each religious community enforces are key. This is why a unified civil code is so important, especially given that the fifteen existing laws create injustice not only between men and women, but also among women themselves, whose rights and obligations remain determined by the laws of the religious community to which they belong.”

Syria, Between Challenges and Opportunities: commitments to large-scale investments (3/4)

In our two previous articles, we examined Syria’s various assets as well as the numerous challenges it faces. Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, the country has entered a new era, bringing with it huge opportunities. The formation of a new government led by Ahmad al-Charaa, and Donald Trump’s announcement of the lifting of U.S. sanctions, has triggered Syria’s reconstruction. Since then, donations, investments, and capital have poured into the country. It is therefore worth looking at the sectors that would benefit most from these capital inflows and the impact they could have on Syria’s future economic development. The Energy Sector, a government priority With electricity production limited to just a few hours per day, it is imperative for the new government to rehabilitate its energy network. Accordingly, Syria signed a $7 billion agreement with UCC Holding, a Qatari energy consortium, to build new power plants based primarily on natural gas and solar energy. Together, these plants aim to produce nearly 5,000 megawatts, roughly half of Syria’s pre-war electricity consumption. In addition, during the Syrian-Saudi summit in July 2025, Saudi Arabia pledged $150 million for energy projects. American firms, such as Baker Hughes, Hunt Energy, and Argent LNG, plan also to modernize Syria’s oil and gas infrastructure in order to improve hydrocarbon extraction and refining, thereby strengthening the country’s energy independence and paving the way for potential hydrocarbon exports. Infrastructure, the backbone of trade flows Thanks to its geographical position, Syria is destined to become a major regional trade hub. It is therefore crucial to rehabilitate and modernize land, sea, and air transport infrastructure to ensure the smooth flow of goods and people. It is in this context that the country signed an agreement of $800 million with DP World, the Emirati logistics heavyweight, to expand the Port of Tartus. Latakia is also being developed, with the Syrian government signing a $262 million agreement with CMA CGM to modernize its port. As for Damascus International Airport, Qatar has committed to modernize it with a $4 billion investment. On another level, a $2 billion agreement was signed to develop a metro line linking the eastern and western districts of the Syrian capital. Real Estate: everything must be rebuilt At the Syrian-Saudi Forum of July 2025, nearly $3 billion were allocated to the real estate and construction sectors. Saudi Arabia, in partnership with Khashoggi Holding and Radiant Structures, announced the construction of a plant capable of producing more than 6,000 tons of cement per day which is the amount needed to build a 15-story residential tower. A $2 billion partnership with the Italian company UBAKO was likewise signed to build the “Damascus Towers,” a complex of several dozen residential high-rises, to rival the skyscrapers of New York and Dubai. In a country devastated by years of war, Syria faces a severe housing shortage that will only grow as refugees return. This surge in demand creates pressing urban planning challenges. The government must follow a rigorous development plan that integrates housing, infrastructure, public services, and thorough city planning to create livable urban spaces. Next article: Digital and Banking Modernization (4/4)