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The ICRC convoy carrying the released civilians left the area occupied by Israel in southern Lebanon and traveled to the point marking the start of the zone controlled by the Lebanese authorities. (AFP)
Today's Essential
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By LevantTime .
Published Sep 5, 2026 - 00:55
The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) announced on Friday that it had transferred four more people released by Israel to Lebanon, a day after the release of a first civilian. They are three Lebanese nationals and two Syrians, according to the ICRC. This is the first time such an operation has taken place since negotiations between Lebanon and Israel began in April under US auspices. During the last round of talks in August, Beirut had requested the release of a first group of its nationals captured by Israel in southern Lebanon, where Israel is at war with the pro-Iranian Hezbollah. Their relatives estimate their number at around thirty, including fighters from the Islamist movement. In a statement, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun thanked the United States and the ICRC, saying the release "confirmed the soundness of the position" taken by Lebanon, which is engaged in negotiations with Israel that Hezbollah rejects. On Thursday, the United States praised "the government of Israel and the government of Lebanon for demonstrating good faith through these initial steps," expressing hope that this would "serve as a foundation for broader discussions on other civilian matters." The two countries are set to hold another round of negotiations in September, though the date has not yet been set. According to the Israeli prime minister's office, Thursday's announcement "follows efforts by Israel and Lebanon to locate and repatriate the remains of Jewish community leaders who were kidnapped and killed in Lebanon" between 1984 and 1986. Israeli strikes intensify On the ground, Israeli strikes killed three people and wounded 23 others on Friday in southern and eastern Lebanon. Israel stepped up its strikes in the region on Friday, after announcing Thursday evening that it had taken control of the Ali Taher mountain ridge, which had served as a strategic position for the pro-Iranian Hezbollah and overlooks Nabatiyeh, among other areas. The army will now reinforce its positions there in order to "prevent the enemy from retaking the area," said Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz. A strike also hit the Tyre region, particularly the village of Rmadiyé, according to the National News Agency (NNA). For Trump, the war in Iran is "small potatoes" Regarding the war in Iran, US President Donald Trump sought on Friday to downplay its impact on the United States ahead of the crucial midterm elections. "A lot of people aren't calling it a war. I call it a military conflict, because it's small potatoes for us. It's not a big deal. We did Venezuela, and we did that," he told reporters in the Oval Office when asked about his vice president, JD Vance, who had said the day before that he didn't want to call the conflict a war. With fuel prices surging because of the war and threatening to cost Donald Trump's Republicans their majority in Congress in November's midterm elections, his administration is working to downplay the scale of the conflict. According to the president, the United States is carrying out "targeted strikes," insisting that it is "not currently engaged in fighting." He also claimed that the United States controlled the Strait of Hormuz and had wiped out Iran's armed forces. "What we've accomplished is remarkable. We took control of Venezuela, and we've essentially taken control of Iran," he said.
Homage
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By Michel Hajji Georgiou - Published Sep 4, 2026 - 23:28
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What remains of Hassan Rifai is the image of a respected, composed jurist, an authority on administrative and constitutional law, arguing in a calm, quavering voice as he pointed out the deviations and failings of politicians in relation to the parliamentary democratic system and the Constitution. And yet, the former MP and minister, who died on September 3, 2025, was also a man in revolt. A dissenter. Even at one hundred. Especially at one hundred! He had been one as a child, haranguing crowds in Baalbeck against the Mandate, and remained one throughout his career as a lawyer and parliamentarian. At one hundred, utterly disillusioned with the Republic and its buccaneers, his quiet anger had not subsided. “Lebanon is an impossible country!” he told the author of these lines in an interview conducted a few years before his death and never published. But make no mistake. Hassan Rifai was neither a nihilist nor someone who rejected everything outright. He had fought all his life for a certain idea of Lebanon. More specifically, for Greater Lebanon, united and plural. And he appreciated the Lebanese experience for what it was worth, including all that was positive in it. But human beings had disappointed him. And yet it was precisely the human being he was seeking. He never found that person on the Lebanese public stage. At least not in the service of the Republic. Rifai was a man of law, always elegant, irreproachable, everything one would expect of a man of his moral and intellectual stature. But he was also uncompromising. Merciless, even. No doubt his attachment to his country and its democratic system had led him to acknowledge only one loyalty: a certain code of values and a certain idea of the Republic. That was why he was critical of every mistake and every abuse, beginning with those committed by his own political friends. He spared no one. Neither communities nor clans, neither religious leaders, he was secular himself, and certainly not political officials. No one escaped his scrutiny, and Rifai took a certain pleasure in dismantling the myths and received ideas that portrayed this or that president of the Republic or prime minister as an exceptional leader. His yardstick was objective: the consistency of actions with democratic principles. As a result, no one truly found favor in his eyes. The conclusion was devastating: none of the country’s leaders, throughout its history, had genuinely respected Lebanese parliamentary democracy. None. That did not mean he placed everyone on the same footing. He had enough critical distance to recognize the qualities and shortcomings of each. He liked to quote Léon Duguit: “Constitutional law has no safeguard other than the good faith of those who apply it.” He had almost made it his republican credo. And his verdict was merciless: that good faith, quite simply, he had not found. Too many politicians, and not enough statesmen. And above all, a great deal of lying and hypocrisy. One day, a senior political figure advised him: “Do not build roads for people. Otherwise they will stop coming to you.” Despite the respect he had for this political ally, the remark left him bewildered and shocked. It contained an entire conception of power: never permanently solve the problem of those one claims to represent, because once their need disappears, so does the very reason for their dependence. The project of the state was thus postponed indefinitely. Or, at the very least, whenever good people did exist, the system prevented them from reaching positions of responsibility. Rifai was a rebel, yes, but one armed with the rigor and precision of a master craftsman of administrative and constitutional law. That was undoubtedly what set him apart within Lebanon’s political milieu. He was rebellious enough, in any event, to pay a price for it. In August 1982, he survived an assassination attempt after opposing the Israeli diktat. At Taif in 1989, he was almost cast out for having immediately discerned the existing flaws and the traps added to the constitutional reforms. From 1992 onward, under the Syrian occupation, he endured political ostracism for opposing the security apparatus underpinning Syrian tutelage and Rafic Hariri’s policies. But he was fair. He could oppose political confessionalism while acknowledging that abolishing it at the present stage would be disastrous for Lebanon, and that a system of majority rule based purely on numbers would once and for all toll the death knell of the Lebanese formula and of the Christian presence in Lebanon. He could agree that Christians had been wronged by the constitutional reforms of Taif, Sunnis too, he maintained, while at the same time recalling the excesses committed in the exercise of power by presidents of the Republic between 1943 and 1990, and warning against a nostalgic return to those practices under the refrain of “Christian rights.” A drift toward a presidential or semi-presidential system would, in his view, endanger Christians. The importance of the parliamentary system inherited from the French Third Republic lay precisely in the fact that the president of the Republic was not politically accountable to the Chamber of Deputies. That placed him, according to Rifai, in a privileged position. Above the fray, he could steer the ship of the Republic safely into port without becoming bogged down in struggles for power. That moral responsibility to preserve the Constitution and the Republic was, in his eyes, far more important than any political responsibility. But the principal parties concerned still had to be persuaded of that. Rifai could recognize the importance of administrative decentralization while refusing to allow that demand to become an ideological slogan concealing separatist ambitions. In this regard, he recalled that Beirut and Mount Lebanon had been favored in the construction of Greater Lebanon, while the peripheral regions, particularly his own, Baalbeck, had been neglected. That had contributed to weakening Lebanese national sentiment, which ultimately depended on well-being grounded in respect for human dignity. Commitment to citizenship presupposed that everyone be treated equally in terms of development. Without equality among citizens, sovereignty could only falter. That, indeed, was the meaning of his first speech in Parliament in 1968. The events that followed gave that warning a singular gravity. Economic, social and territorial imbalances contributed to fueling the demands of the left and of part of the Muslim street in a country already strained by sectarian tensions, foreign interference and the growing power of armed organizations. They thus contributed to the gradual weakening of the state, before the war, successive occupations and the emergence of para-state structures. Ultimately, Hassan Rifai embodies something of that Lebanese model of the cosmopolitan, complex personality who stands outside communal and partisan trenches, enjoys almost unanimous respect, especially beyond political circles, yet is consulted within those same circles only when needed and for self-interested reasons. Lebanon does not like minds that are too independent and too unruly, even if its system still contains cracks through which such people can exist and make themselves heard. They are tolerated, but they must remain on the margins. The survival of the state of zaamat and the state of jamaat depends on it: a system that invariably prefers turning to foreign patrons rather than to people capable of generating, proposing and implementing solutions from within. Lebanon’s political system and its protagonists detest the notion of responsibility, which they find profoundly anxiety-inducing, and prefer dependence or, worse still, servility. Yet Rifai repeatedly said, once again quoting Léon Duguit: “Where responsibility lies, there lies power.” Should it then come as any surprise that in Lebanon, where responsibility is nowhere to be found, power is nowhere to be found either? Or, more precisely, that it is always elsewhere?
Analyze
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By Jad Akhawi - Published Sep 4, 2026 - 15:00
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The battle of Ali al-Taher was not merely a military confrontation over a strategic hill in southern Lebanon. Despite its limited size, the site became a point where military, political, and regional calculations converged, exposing one of the core issues at the heart of Lebanon’s ongoing conflict: who controls the territory, who holds the weapons, and who decides on war and peace? What is most striking is not only Israel’s entry into the site, but Hezbollah’s insistence on refusing to hand it over to the Lebanese Army, even though the Army is the only legitimate institution supposed to assume responsibility for Lebanese territory, particularly in border areas directly tied to the country’s security and sovereignty. Why Did Hezbollah refuse? Because handing Ali al-Taher over to the Army would not have been understood as a limited measure on the ground. It would have carried a political meaning extending far beyond the hill itself. Such a move would have amounted to a de facto recognition of the Lebanese state’s authority over security and military decisions in the South, and of the principle that no other armed force can act as though it exercises effective authority on the ground. The site therefore became a test of state authority, rather than merely an advanced military position. Who Killed the fighters? This remains the most obscure episode in the account of the battle. The Israeli version speaks of fighters being killed and others fleeing, while independent information about how many people were present at the site, the nature of their mission, and what ultimately happened to them remains incomplete. The conflicting accounts also raise numerous questions that cannot be resolved through military statements alone. And this is not merely an operational detail: Were most of the fighters killed inside the site? Did they manage to withdraw through tunnels and passageways? Or had they been evacuated before the Israeli operation began? Each of these scenarios carries a different significance. If the fighters remained until the final moments, that would mean the site witnessed a direct confrontation that ended in clear Israeli military superiority. If, on the other hand, they were evacuated beforehand, the questions would concern who made that decision, why it was taken, and whether the evacuation formed part of a broader understanding or was simply a precautionary military measure. And if it were established that a significant number of them had left before Israeli forces entered the site, the central questions would then be: how did they leave, who facilitated their departure, and did it take place with the knowledge of local or international actors? At this stage, there is insufficient public evidence to determine which of these scenarios is correct. But the absence of information does not make these questions any less important. On the contrary, it deepens the uncertainty surrounding what occurred in the hours preceding the capture of the site. What About the U.S. Ambassador’s Visit to Israel? The timing deserves attention. The escalation around Ali al-Taher coincided with U.S. diplomatic moves involving Israel, while reports emerged of discussions concerning the site and the possibility that it might eventually be handed over to the Lebanese Army. This does not necessarily mean that the decision was made outside Lebanon, nor that a fully developed agreement was reached between Washington, Tel Aviv, and Beirut. But it does suggest that the site is no longer being viewed as a purely local military issue. There is no basis for asserting that the U.S. ambassador’s visit was part of a secret deal concerning Ali al-Taher. Nor can it be stated with certainty that everything that happened resulted from a prior understanding among the parties involved. What is clear, however, is that Washington views the future of the site as part of a broader file involving the ceasefire, the stabilization of the border, the prevention of any military presence outside the authority of the Lebanese state, and efforts to ensure that border areas do not become permanent platforms for confrontation. Ali al-Taher thus becomes part of negotiations that extend far beyond its geography. The site may be small on the map, but it is connected to major questions concerning arrangements in the South, the role of the Lebanese Army, the future of weapons outside state control, and the limits of Israeli influence in the region. The Paradox That Embarrassed Hezbollah The central political paradox is that Hezbollah refused to hand the hill over to the Lebanese Army, yet ultimately failed to retain it. If the Israeli operation were to end with the withdrawal of Israeli forces and the handover of the site to the Lebanese Army, the outcome would be very different from the situation Hezbollah sought to impose or preserve: Hezbollah refused to hand the site over to the state, Israel forced it out, and the state then returned to assume responsibility. In other words, Hezbollah refused to establish the Army’s authority voluntarily, but may find itself confronted with a reality that establishes that authority by other means. This is what makes the situation politically embarrassing, because the final outcome may appear to have achieved indirectly what Hezbollah refused to do directly. This raises an obvious question: why was handing the site over to the Army not considered the least costly option for Lebanon? Such a move could have been presented as a strengthening of the state’s role, a means of protecting the South, and a way of preventing Israel from using Hezbollah’s presence as a pretext to remain on the ground or advance further. The refusal to hand the site over to the Army instead kept it within the zone of confrontation and allowed Israel to present its operation as a response to a military presence outside state authority. Ali al-Taher Encapsulates Lebanon’s Problem The issue goes far beyond this hill. Lebanon cannot recover its sovereignty as long as two military authorities coexist: that of the Army and that of weapons outside state control. Nor can it ask the international community to respect its borders while military decision-making within those borders remains divided between state institutions and an armed organization possessing capabilities independent of them. At the same time, Lebanon cannot demand that Israel withdraw from its territory while security decisions concerning that same territory remain the subject of an internal dispute. As long as weapons remain outside state control, the Israeli argument will persist, and the South will remain exposed to further rounds of escalation. Sovereignty cannot be shared. Either the Lebanese Army is the sole military authority, or Lebanon will remain an open arena for regional conflicts in which Iranian, Israeli, and American calculations intersect, while the state and society pay the price of confrontation. This is why the real question after Ali al-Taher is not: Who won the hill? But rather: Who will control it once the battle is over? If the answer is the Lebanese Army, Ali al-Taher could mark the beginning of a transition in the South from the logic of “resistance” to the logic of state responsibility. It could constitute a first step toward redefining national security so that defending the borders becomes the responsibility of state institutions rather than that of any party acting independently. If Israel remains, however, Lebanon will once again have lost part of its sovereignty, regardless of the narrative each side puts forward to justify what happened. In either case, one essential truth remains: Hezbollah cannot substitute itself for the state, and Israel cannot serve as the guarantor of its sovereignty. Lebanese sovereignty can only be restored by the Lebanese state, protected by its Army, and upheld by a clear political decision that puts an end to the duality of arms and authority.
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Syria Between Challenges and Opportunities: Security, Reconstruction, and Reintegration (2/4)

In our previous article, we explored Syria’s various economic assets. Thanks to its fertile land and strategic location, Damascus holds major—yet largely untapped—economic potential. Moreover, the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, the rise of Ahmad al-Shareh to power, the lifting of U.S. and European sanctions, and the Syrian-Saudi summit held in July 2025 have launched a new dynamic of reconstruction and reintegration into the Arab sphere and international trade. But not everything is rosy in post-Assad Syria, and many challenges still lie ahead. Security The new leadership’s first and enduring challenge remains security. After more than 13 years of civil war, during which sectarian and ethnic factions fought relentlessly, the country is still plagued by sectarian-driven unrest, particularly along the coast and in Sweida. Added to this are recurring clashes along the Lebanese border with groups affiliated with Hezbollah, as well as Israeli airstrikes. The government is gradually consolidating its authority and working to restore order and security nationwide. The road is long, and sustained efforts are needed to ensure lasting stability—without which many investors may hesitate to engage. Everything Must Be Rebuilt The IMF estimates that nearly 50% of Syrian housing has been destroyed or requires major renovation. Nearly half of the population is now outside the country, and the return of displaced Syrians will only increase demand for housing. Much of the country’s infrastructure has been destroyed as well—factories, hospitals, water-pumping stations, power plants, wells, and oil refineries—all essential components for reconstruction. Gulf investments aim to fill this infrastructure gap and help the country recover. But several years will be needed before these new production capacities become operational. In the meantime, reconstruction is expected to generate nearly 200,000 jobs, according to the World Bank, and bring billions of dollars into the country, boosting the Syrian central bank’s foreign-currency reserves. Major Structural Economic Challenges After more than 13 years of civil war, Syria’s economy is in ruins. GDP fell from nearly $60 billion in 2010 to just over $20 billion in 2022. In 2018, the UN reclassified Syria from a developing country (like India, Mexico, or Indonesia) to a low-income country (such as Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, or Angola). According to UN data, nearly 90% of the population lives below the poverty line, on less than two dollars a day. The Syrian pound has lost almost 99% of its value—from 47 pounds per US dollar in 2010 to nearly 22,000 in late 2024. Since the fall of Assad, it has recovered slightly to around 11,000 pounds. But the central bank holds only $200 million in foreign-currency reserves, making it ill-equipped to handle another monetary shock. On the other hand, the central bank reportedly holds around 26 tons of gold—nearly $3 billion at a price of $3,700 per ounce. This gold could be used as collateral to unlock vital credit lines. Syria’s government owes around $23 billion to various creditors—nearly 115% of its GDP. Most of this debt is owed to Iran ($17 billion) and Russia ($1.2 billion). Servicing this debt absorbs nearly 30% of the state budget—funds that could otherwise support reconstruction or public services. The current leadership is considering refusing repayment of debts owed to Iran and Russia, deeming them “odious”—contracted without the consent or benefit of the population. But although these debts were incurred by the Assad regime to buy weapons and fuel used against its own people, international law does not provide a clear mechanism for managing odious state debts. A default on all or part of the debt would contradict the principle of “state succession,” whereby a new government inherits the rights and obligations of its predecessor. The Need for a Robust Institutional Framework Reforming public institutions, combating corruption, and improving governance and transparency are essential to restore the trust of citizens and investors. Without a reliable rule of law, all economic initiatives risk being undermined. Strengthening judicial, administrative, and economic institutions is a prerequisite for placing Syria on a path of sustainable growth. Moreover, reforms aimed at privatizing parts of the economy are necessary. Under Bashar al-Assad, the state controlled most production capacities and exercised direct control over the economy. It is therefore crucial to privatize key sectors and allow more companies to compete, stimulating innovation through competition. Social Reintegration and Managing Population Movements Millions of Syrians have been displaced internally or have taken refuge abroad. Their return represents a major social and economic challenge that must be accompanied by reintegration programs. Without such efforts, the country risks deepening social fractures, fueling communal tensions, and prolonging precarious living conditions—factors that could seriously hinder reconstruction and development. The challenges ahead are many and complex, but not insurmountable. Security, infrastructure reconstruction, economic stabilization, social reintegration, and institutional reforms must be addressed in a coordinated manner to establish a stable and attractive environment. By overcoming these obstacles, Syria could build lasting peace and finally harness its considerable economic potential for the benefit of the Syrian people and the entire region.

The Arab Gulf States and Their Cultural Rise
By
Micha Moussallem
Published

A quick glance at the developing cultural and artistic landscape in the Gulf countries reveals the colossal resources devoted to a wide range of often lavish and avant-garde projects aimed at promoting art and culture, on bases that may vary from one country to another. A similar enthusiasm is evident across the board, reflecting a shared desire for openness and exchange with the world of culture and art. All of these projects undoubtedly serve to promote a kind of "cultural diplomacy"—if one can call it that—and to boost the cultural influence of these countries on an international scale. However, it would be a mistake to reduce the achievements already made and those already planned to a mere marketing exercise. Beyond the somewhat grandiose scale of the projects underway, other, far more important motivations are at play. In societies undergoing profound upheaval, art and culture are drivers of social and political transformation. But they are also, simultaneously, a means of protecting and transmitting a country's know-how, traditions, and cultural heritage. They contribute significantly to strengthening national pride and cementing a sense of belonging. The leaders of the Gulf countries are perfectly aware of this. And their concern for preserving and promoting this cultural identity is perfectly clear in all the projects implemented or under development. Beyond the issues that could be described, by extension, as geopolitical, art, in societies in transition, is a guardian of memory. It also allows for a smooth and profound change in society. It is the thread that connects the past to the present and the future. To this end, leaders are encouraging avant-garde artistic and cultural projects, while simultaneously emphasizing the preservation and promotion of cultural heritage, traditions, and ancestral know-how. In a series of articles dedicated to this topic, Levant Time examined the main projects that clearly reflect a desire to transform the Gulf countries into a global cultural and artistic hub and a place for exchange among diverse cultural actors in fields as varied as painting, music, dance, film, and literature. These projects are ambitious and numerous, but the stakes are equally high. In the current context prevailing in this part of the world and internationally, will these rapidly changing societies succeed in finding a suitable balance between the Islamic-Arab heritage, on the one hand, and the realities of the 21st century, on the other? Will they be able to make a spectacular entrance into the world of tomorrow and initiate an era of artistic and cultural renaissance, like the Italian Renaissance, for example? Will they succeed in their transformation without losing their identity and soul along the way? These are some of the questions that Levant Time will attempt to answer in its series of articles dedicated to major cultural and artistic projects in the various Gulf countries. Next article: The Royal Opera House of Muscat

The Levant: Let Us Dare to Hope for Peace
By
Jawad Pakradouni
Published

The following question was posed to one of the artificial intelligence programs: Has the Levant ever experienced a true period of peace since its existence? The answer is grim. The region has known periods of calm, but never lasting peace. The only period that can be described as stable was the Pax Romana , from the first to the third century. A peace imposed by the sword, a pax manu militari . A peace at the price of blood, the toll of which even artificial intelligence would be unable to assess. The various conflicts were motivated primarily by religious reasons, linked to other political or territorial considerations. Ironically, today the only concept capable of offering true peace bears the name of the sole common ancestor of the three monotheistic religions that have succeeded one another, and for which so much blood was shed, and continues to be shed: Avraham, Abraham, Ibrahim. In the name of Yahweh, Allah, or God, people fight each other. And yet, many yearn for lasting peace, but this peace comes at a price: forgiveness. How many generations will it take for this forgiveness to finally be granted, and for genuine peace to become possible between peoples who have been killing each other for centuries, on and over the same territory? Yet, in the three Abrahamic religions, the same precept is repeated and chanted: “I completely forgive anyone who has hurt or offended me.” “Forgive us our trespasses as we forgive those who trespass against us.” “The retribution for evil is equivalent evil. But whoever forgives and restores peace, his reward belongs to God.” These three stanzas belong respectively to the three religions, in the order of their appearance. The crimes committed by each side against the other are abominable. And trying to go back to the Stone Age to determine which people occupied which territory is futile and pointless. The Phoenicians, for example, extended as far as Gibraltar. Should we then claim the countries that our ancestors colonized? Certainly not, especially since we already struggle to manage the 10,452 km² of our small country. It is difficult to forget the still-open wounds and smoldering ruins of the last wars. But are future generations condemned to bear the weight of our mistakes? At some point, we must heal the past and think about the future: the future of our children, their children, and those who will follow. Two thousand years of history and conflict for a few hundred years of peace: the equation speaks for itself. We don't choose our family, nor the country in which we are born. But we can influence the course of events. All it takes is swallowing our pride and forgiving. Forgiveness is probably the most difficult step of all. The contemporary philosopher Jonathan Lockwood Huie wrote: “Forgive others, not because they deserve forgiveness, but because you deserve peace.” Our generation has been lulled by war all its life, with only about fifteen years of respite. Lebanon is perhaps the only country in the world to have been the stage for other people's wars: bloc wars, support wars, proxy wars. Even its civil war wasn't really a civil war. It is time our country was finally spared its own wars, and especially those of others. Perhaps it is naive to hope for lasting peace and to believe that we could prove the Poppys' refrain wrong: "I wanted, I hoped that peace would reign supreme… But everything continued, no, nothing changed." At present, everything seems to be converging toward a settlement of the conflict, the hope of peace; it is probably naive to cling to this hope. As Virgil Gheorghiu wrote in The Twenty-Fifth Hour , hell is losing all hope. We already endure physical hell every day; there is no need to add a moral hell to it. That is why, let us dare to make peace…

Europe Facing Its Demons
By
Michel Hajji Georgiou
Published

No — the war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine cannot be dismissed as a peripheral disturbance or reduced to a mere dispute over territory, whatever the assorted Putinists would have us believe. The Russian aggression exposes a deeper fracture: a clash between two visions of the world. On one side, freedom and the rule of law; on the other, the nostalgia for an imperial order, resurrected under the guise of a mythologized “golden age,” built upon domination and terror. What unfolds today upon Ukrainian soil is nothing less than the deliberate attempt to resurrect the imperial logic of Russia and to impose it as the political paradigm of this century. The battle for the Donbas is not a local skirmish. It is a test for the whole of Europe — for its courage, its memory, and its very future. Nothing less. The regime of Vladimir Putin does not merely seek to annex land. Putin aims to restore an imperial architecture with explicit historical referents: Peter the Great, Catherine II, and the idea of a “civilizational space” sanctified by the myth of the “Russian world,” wherein peoples are not political subjects but ethnic matter to be absorbed, reshaped, or erased. Every empire rests upon the negation of law. It recognizes neither popular sovereignty, nor pluralism, nor individual liberty. Freedom is wholly alien to it — an intruder concept. This war, therefore, is directed against the very idea of Europe. For Europe is not, in essence, a territory; it is, in the minds of its founders, a manner of dwelling in the world: a certain conception of human dignity, of legality, of debate, of the equality of rights. She is the daughter of the Enlightenment and of the uncompromising rejection of terror. She was born of cooperation, forged to rebuild what the culture of exclusion and annihilation — the culture of two world wars — had destroyed. She exists only in a space where the individual stands sovereign before the State. The Russian imperial project is the precise antithesis of this: despotism justified in the name of a “vital space,” the very logic against which Europe rebuilt itself after the abyss of Auschwitz and Buchenwald. Kyiv has thus become a frontier not between two nations but between two civilizational models. If Ukraine falls, it will not merely be a nation that collapses; the very possibility of a world governed by international law will collapse with it — as is also the case with what Netanyahu is perpetrating in Gaza and the West Bank, for that matter. As Nicolas Tenzer writes in Our War , the Russian invasion constitutes “a total offensive against the legitimate order.” This is not a regional disturbance; it is a direct assault on liberal democracy itself. The Kremlin knows this: by crushing Ukraine, it would demonstrate that law is but a façade, and that force alone confers truth. The consequences would be universal: a global regression into the logic of empire — protectorates, vassal-states, shifting borders, silenced peoples. A return to Europe before Westphalia. Yet something graver still is unfolding: the parallel erosion of the Western pillar that, since 1945, has been the backbone of the free world. The United States — once the architect and guarantor of an international order, imperfect, often cynical, yet structuring — is now withdrawing from the stage of history. The return of Donald Trump to the White House has sealed this cataclysmic shift: a world reduced to transactions, to immediate profit, to moral vacuity. Trump, being himself, would no doubt have negotiated Munich with Hitler in the name of accounting pragmatism, chastised Warsaw for being “ungrateful” toward the Third Reich, and advised Churchill to “make peace” by redrawing a few borders. He might even have applauded Quisling for his pragmatism. Cowardice dressed up as realism — nothing older; but rarely has it been flaunted with such swagger, with such frank and carefree cynicism. What unfolded last February between Trump and Zelensky was no diplomatic mishap. It was a historic rupture, if not a moral abdication — even if Washington has since attempted to gather the shards of its strategic blunder. The message sent to Putin was unmistakable: proceed, the road is clear. The Sudetenland, redux, in a twenty-first-century edition. This American strategic withdrawal offered Russia a perilous window: if Washington retreats, Moscow may intensify its assault, convinced that Ukraine will collapse under the weight of Western indifference. What looms is not merely the defeat of a nation, but the erosion of the Western idea itself — giving way to a coalition of Empires: Moscow, Beijing, Tehran, their clienteles and their political auxiliaries in Europe and the United States. George Steiner would have shuddered in terror. It is the last door of Bluebeard’s castle now being shattered before the eyes of a world nearly bled dry — as in Palestine. The end of culture. Clairvoyant, he foresaw this in 1971: “I find derisory any theory of culture, any analysis of present conditions that does not place at its centre the mechanisms of terror which led, in Europe and in Russia, from the beginning of the First World War to the end of the Second, to the death — by starvation or systematic massacre — of seventy million human beings.” “Derisory” is a feeble word. “Ignoble” lands closer to the truth today. This American withdrawal has revealed what Kissinger once termed “the temptation of disengagement.” The West is suffering from an existential fatigue. It no longer believes in its own narrative. It no longer dares to defend what it claims to embody. Trump did not invent this; he is merely the hypertrophic symptom of a civilization doubting itself — doubting its bearings, its moral architecture, built precisely so that a new Hitler would never arise — a civilization sinking into a kind of Mephistophelian nihilism. And when civilization withdraws, barbarians advance. Ask Romulus Augustulus and Odoacer. Europe now stands alone — and this is no accident. De Gaulle foresaw it in the 1960s: great powers have no friends, only interests. Strategic dependence is a mortal error. Today, Atlantic solidarity rests upon the whims of a man oscillating between admiration for Putin and scorn for his allies. And Europe hesitates, trembles, calculates — as it did under Chamberlain, despite the lucidity of a few of its leaders. What remains, then? Only one alternative: to awaken or to perish; to choose to exist as a sovereign political power or to revert to a protectorate; to understand that freedom must be defended as Churchill defended it, not in the manner of the Pétains – Orbán, the Salvinis and their ilk. Ukraine today embodies what Europe has forgotten after nearly a century of peace: that freedom is a vital necessity, not a rhetorical ornament. And, above all, that men and women die so that the idea of law may endure. A civilization incapable of recognizing this is already dead. Having lost its memory, it has forfeited its reason for being — its soul. Our war — for it is the war of each of us, a moral obligation — is to uphold the symbolic and political frontier between the world of law and the world of Empire. If that frontier collapses, political humanity collapses with it. Nothing will remain to distinguish Europe from a mere geographical expression. Ukraine is, in its essence, the limes that still shields Europe from darkness. If the lock breaks, a certain idea of the world will vanish. We must say “no” to Putin and to his replicas across Europe — so long as they strive to transform the world into identity compounds subjugated to the heart and power of Empire. For it is this collective refusal of tyranny that has always allowed civilizations — despite their failings — to become more progressive, and more humane. It is, quite simply, the price of our evolution — all of us.

The Last Taboo Has Fallen: Lebanon Will Not Be the Last to Sign a Peace Agreement!

Direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel have officially begun with the aim of reaching a peace agreement. Their fundamental condition is the disarmament of Hezbollah. Other points, both essential and secondary, are on the table, notably economic cooperation enabling both countries to move forward on the path to recovery, the reconstruction of South Lebanon, and security and stabilization on Israel's northern border. Before going into detail and analysis, before examining the various perspectives, and before reviewing the events that have led Lebanon to pay the heaviest price in the Arab-Israeli conflict for over half a century, a simple question arises: what is the alternative to peace with Israel, to Lebanon's recovery, and to the country's reconstruction? There is no clear answer. The state has been absent for decades, and the Iranian militia based in Lebanon decides, unilaterally, when to launch a war, when to conclude a truce, when to negotiate, when to support Gaza, when to provoke Israel, or when to destabilize neighboring Arab countries. It builds tunnels to continue the wars instead of constructing shelters and hospitals. Until the day Hezbollah trapped itself in a strategic dead end. The war it instigated to serve the Iranian project under the slogan of "unity of fronts" is one it can no longer end. Tehran has gradually withdrawn the cover it provided to Hezbollah. It seeks to buy time to preserve the regime and maintains Hezbollah for future use. But Israel now refuses to tolerate any continued threat posed by Hezbollah. He pushed this militia back north of the Litani River, which proved simpler than carrying out Nabih Berri's famous quip to his visitors, who were warning him about the deteriorating situation, suggesting that the Litani River should be moved to the border with Israel! As a result, Hezbollah is no longer acting according to the old rules of deterrence. In fact, it isn't reacting at all. It has endorsed a truce, but a truce is merely a respite between two wars. The Lebanese leaders, long absent and hesitant, even overwhelmed by the de facto reality, have finally woken up. They have taken the initiative, but hesitated, then failed to follow through. What they will not accomplish, Israel will do in their place—but the price to pay will be far higher. It was within this specific context that a historic event occurred: the exceptional visit of Pope Leo XIV; a visit that took on a political dimension due to its central theme, "Blessed are the peacemakers." Just hours after the departure of the Holy Father, who urged the Lebanese to choose peace, the commission monitoring ceasefire violations was transformed into a committee for direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel. The peace negotiations initiated between Lebanon and Israel serve Lebanon's national interest. They are in the interest of Lebanon's security and its very vocation as a "message country," rather than a "hotbed of conflict." They offer an alternative to Hezbollah's rhetoric, based on endless war and "resistance for resistance's sake," solely aimed at serving Iranian influence in the region. Direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel offer the possibility of reaching a peace agreement. Direct negotiations have long been taboo in Lebanon, with no one even considering the possibility or initiating a debate on the subject. If Lebanon doesn't negotiate with Israel to defend its own interests, then who will? Hezbollah negotiates on behalf of Iran, serving the expansionist agenda of the Wilayat al-Faqih (the Islamic Observatory). Direct negotiations thus mark Lebanon's renewed assertion of its sovereign role and the beginning of a decline in Iranian influence. The talks have begun officially, seriously, and effectively. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has tasked a team from the National Security Council with joining the technical committee, known as the "mechanism," and meeting with Lebanese officials. The Lebanese presidency has announced that President Joseph Aoun has appointed Ambassador Simon Karam to represent Lebanon. The direct negotiations will not only address ceasefire violations but also lay the groundwork for future economic relations and cooperation between Lebanon and Israel. The US Embassy in Beirut supported the initiative in a statement: “Sustainable progress is only possible,” the statement emphasized, “if the concerns and aspirations expressed by both parties are addressed.” “Both lebanese and Israeli perspectives are being taken into account.” Ambassador Michel Issa welcomed the Lebanese government’s decision to opt for dialogue after decades of uncertainty. He stated that direct negotiations are a constructive step toward initiating processes that could one day allow the two countries to coexist in an atmosphere of peace, mutual respect, and dignity. In this context, the ambassador reaffirmed his country’s commitment to supporting all efforts that strengthen peace, stability, and security. The start of negotiations is not the solution in itself, but it represents an important opening. They will continue alongside Israeli operations aimed at dismantling Hezbollah’s military wing and putting an end to its economic—and even social—activities. The most explosive scenario could come from Iran: Tehran could launch a full-scale confrontation if it perceives that Hezbollah’s role is over or that the regime is nearing its end. He could then completely sacrifice Hezbollah to achieve some gains. These different scenarios could emerge behind the scenes of direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel.

The Levant in Turmoil: Lebanese and Syrian Perspectives (2/3)

The Levant has, over the past two years, witnessed profound and dramatic upheavals that have reshaped the region’s geopolitical landscape. The chain of events set in motion since Hamas’s deadly attack on Israel from the Gaza Strip on 7 October 2023 seems to have paved the way for the emergence of a new Middle East, as Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, repeatedly asserts. As 2025 draws to a close, what overall picture, what prospects, and what political and security assessment can be made of this region? By stepping back and looking at the wider picture, it becomes easier to examine closely the developments under way and the sweeping changes that have unfolded across Lebanon, Syria, Israel, Gaza (and the Palestinian territories), as well as Iran. Already severely shaken by the apocalyptic explosion at Beirut’s port on 4 August 2020 and by the economic and financial collapse of 2019, Lebanon finds itself, at the end of this year, grappling with the far-reaching repercussions of the indefensible – and absurd – “support war” (for Hamas) launched by Hezbollah on 8 October 2023. This armed conflict, seemingly instigated by the Iranian mullahs’ regime, resulted in the assassination of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, the elimination of the Shiite party’s military command, the destruction of numerous villages in South Lebanon, and Israel’s occupation of five strategic positions within Lebanese territory. The President’s Commitments In the shadow of such a context, it has become imperative to press Israel to put an end to its tendency to make use of Lebanese territory and airspace at its discretion, for better or for worse. There is, however, a corresponding obligation: the Lebanese state, backed by its population, must decide to implement the UN resolutions as well as all the commitments made by President Joseph Aoun in his inaugural address on the day of his election to the highest office of the State, on 9 January 2025. The Lebanese population must support the State’s efforts in this regard, fully aware that the necessary dismantling of Hezbollah’s military apparatus and the total disarmament of the party may not occur without friction yet will ultimately benefit all of Lebanon’s communities – and first and foremost Lebanese Shiites. Such resolve must be expressed without equivocation. In this framework, Syria, Iran and Israel must acknowledge that this is a deliberate initiative on Lebanon’s part, one that will be pursued to its conclusion and is, in the end, in the interest of the entire region. Faced with the self-centered and reductive behavior of the main Levantine actors, it is worth noting that Lebanon can – and should – play the role of a catalyst, setting in motion a broader, much-needed dynamic of recovery. As for Lebanon’s strictly internal situation, the bonds that tie its various communities together need to be rewoven – and only President Joseph Aoun can set this new “reweaving”. To that end, he must make it unmistakably clear through his actions that he was elected President to lead, in every sense of the word. Without firm resolve, without a clear and unequivocal will on his part, without the courage he has demonstrated throughout his career, Lebanon will not be able to restore the flourishing, prosperous and peaceful State it once was. The Syrian Earthquake The upheaval that has had the greatest impact on Lebanon over the past months has undoubtedly been the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. For half a century, this Syrian dictatorship imposed an occupation and a hegemony on Lebanon that profoundly altered the country’s political landscape. The new order emerged in Syria in the wake of the sudden – yet foreseeable – vacuum created by the collapse of the Assad regime. This abrupt fall of Baathist power was accelerated by the astonishing lack of reaction from the regime’s popular base, alongside the disarray and collapse of its troops. For now, however, the new regime lacks robust foundations internally. The abuses committed against minorities – without firm intervention from the new authorities – further weaken the regime. President Ahmed al-Shareh was received, with all the honours due to his rank, by Presidents Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron. He is now called upon to prove that such honours were indeed deserved. His future – and that of Syria, or at least the part under his control – depends on the distance he is able to keep between his country, on the one hand, and Hamas and Iran, on the other. His survival depends on it. Next article: The Levant in Turmoil: Iran Caught in the Tornado