Syria, Between Challenges and Opportunities: A New Beginning (1/4)

On December 8, 2024, the regime of Bashar al-Assad fell in Syria. After more than fifty years of bloody dictatorship and thirteen years of civil war that left more than 600,000 dead and displaced more than a quarter of the population, a new wind is blowing across Syria, bringing with it a wave of optimism.

As in every country left in ruins after a civil war, in Syria, everything needs to be rebuilt. Thanks to its geographical location, its wealth of natural resources, and the support of the Gulf states, the new Syria of Ahmad el-Sharaa presents numerous opportunities. But at the same time, the country must face many challenges, particularly in terms of security and socio-political stability.

The Richness of the Soil

One of Syria's major assets lies in the richness of its soil. The country possesses significant hydrocarbon reserves. Syria's oil reserves are estimated at around 2.5 billion barrels, equivalent to the five-year consumption of a country like the United Kingdom. Furthermore, Syria is believed to hold approximately 700 billion cubic meters of natural gas in its territorial waters. This would place it third among gas-producing countries in the Eastern Mediterranean, behind Egypt (2,130 billion cubic meters) and Israel (1,090 billion cubic meters). These figures are not yet definitive, however. Further exploration and analysis are needed to confirm them.

Syria also possesses significant mineral deposits, such as iron, limestone, and marble, but also, and perhaps most importantly, considerable phosphate reserves. Before the start of the civil war, the country ranked fifth in the world among exporters of this mineral.

A strategic geographical location

Another of the country's advantages is its geographical location. Indeed, the ports of Tartus and Latakia on the eastern shore of the Mediterranean possess the potential to establish themselves as regional hubs for global trade. Furthermore, Syria, situated at the crossroads of Asia, Africa, the Arab world, and Europe, could, through its rehabilitation and reintegration into international trade, complement major trade routes. Syria would thus position itself at the center of the trade circuit linking the Gulf States, Jordan, Syria, Turkey, and Europe. This route would pave the way for supplying Europe with hydrocarbons, thereby offering an alternative to Russian gas. It would also allow goods to transit by land, as road transport is a more economical option than air freight and faster than maritime freight.

This new route would also allow Syria to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, a strait rife with geopolitical tensions between Iran and its neighbors, as well as the Gulf of Aden, south of Yemen, where transiting ships are regularly targeted by Houthi and Somali pirate attacks. In doing so, the country would become the missing link in a new trade route connecting India, Saudi Arabia, and Europe.

In this context, a potential normalization of relations with Israel would establish a new trade route between Turkey, Syria, Israel, Egypt, and Africa, thus creating new economic and commercial opportunities for the countries involved.

A diversified and resilient agriculture

Although nearly two-thirds of Syria's land is arid, the country possesses numerous fertile regions suitable for agriculture. Among them are the regions of Aleppo and Barada (near Damascus), as well as the Syrian coast, particularly Tartus and Latakia, which benefit from a Mediterranean climate, ideal for growing olives, citrus fruits, and various vegetables.

In the northeast of the country, the Syrian Jazira and the Euphrates Valley, both irrigated by the river of the same name, allow for significant cereal production (wheat and barley).

The country also produces industrial crops, such as cotton and tobacco.

Before the war, agriculture represented a significant share of Syria's GDP (approximately 15%), and agricultural exports were valued at over $400 million annually.

Rehabilitating agricultural land and modernizing infrastructure would significantly increase agricultural yields and incomes.

Furthermore, and most importantly, Syria's reintegration into the Arab world would open up new export markets.

A Multipurpose Industry

Beyond the richness of its soil, Syria does not simply extract natural resources. It also processes them. Industry represents a significant portion of the country's GDP. Hydrocarbon refineries and food processing plants employ a large part of the population. A significant portion of production is destined for export.

Furthermore, Syrian industry is a significant player in the production of construction materials, such as cement, as well as textiles and mechanical parts.

In a completely different sector, Syria was, before the war, a major center for pharmaceutical production, supplying 85% of the local population's needs for medicines.

By modernizing its infrastructure and forging partnerships with major pharmaceutical companies, Syria could become a regional, or even global, player in pharmaceutical production.

In conclusion, thanks to its rich soil and strategic geographic location, Syria possesses numerous advantages. With the improvement of the security situation, the return of skilled nationals and workers, the lifting of sanctions, and investments from numerous countries, particularly those in the Gulf, Syria could quickly become a leading regional economic player.